We’ve had a full month of 2022 MLB action, which means some of the key stats have started to stabilize and teams have settled into their true talent. As a result, we can begin to get a good sense of where the league is at and start to identify any betting trends that can help us be more successful with our bets.
Below we’ll look at the current betting trends as of Thursday, May 12th, and discuss what the takeaways might be.
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2022 MLB Straight Up (Moneyline Bets)
| Category | W/L Record | Win Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Away Teams | 211-236 | 47.2% |
| Home Teams | 236-211 | 52.8% |
| Favorites | 271-172 | 61.2% |
| Underdogs | 172-271 | 38.8% |
| Away Favorites | 96-60 | 61.5% |
| Away Underdogs | 112-175 | 39.0% |
| Home Favorites | 175-112 | 61.0% |
| Home Underdogs | 60-96 | 38.5% |
Favorites winning almost 2/3 of the games straight up is not exactly a shock but something good to keep an eye on. The “live dog” underdog who can pull an upset still exists, but you just need to be careful on that bet.
It is also interesting to note that home and away don’t seem to have much impact. The records straight up are fairly similar but also being home/away hasn’t really changed the results for favorites or underdogs this far in, so it’s likely a factor that’s best limited in your process for which games/teams to bet on.
2022 MLB Runline Results
| Category | Runline Record | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Away Teams | 249-198-0 | 55.7% |
| Home Teams | 198-249-0 | 44.3% |
| Favorites | 199-248-0 | 44.5% |
| Underdogs | 248-199-0 | 55.5% |
| Away Favorites | 81-80-0 | 50.3% |
| Away Underdogs | 168-118-0 | 58.7% |
| Home Favorites | 118-168-0 | 41.3% |
| Home Underdogs | 80-81-0 | 49.7% |
This first stat is interesting to me. With away teams doing far better against the spread, we can assume that perhaps away teams are being incorrectly docked by Vegas. Since we just covered that being home or away doesn’t seem to impact the results in any tremendously meaningful way, this could help us identify some value.
Even the percentage on away underdogs and home favorites back this up. We seem to be giving too much credence to home teams on the run line so far this season. If you see a good team, or perhaps two evenly matched teams, with the away team getting runs primarily because, in your mind at least, they are on the road, it could be a good time to bet.
2022 MLB Over/Under Results
This is the most interesting to me because a lot has been made about the “dead ball” and how baseballs aren’t flying as far in the 2022 MLB season. As a result, the league is averaging 4.07 runs per game per team. That’s the lowest total since 2017 (also 4.07 runs per game), and we haven’t seen a total lower than that since 1981.
As a result, you’ll see a lot of unders listed below. However, Vegas has started to correct, and we’re seeing a lot of totals now listed at 6.5 or 7 total runs. Well, if the league is averaging 4.07 runs per game per team, that would be a below-average total, so we just need to make sure we REALLY trust the two pitchers in that game if we want to be the under.
| Category | Total | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| Overs | 187 | 44.5% |
| Under | 233 | 55.5% |
However, it’s also important to note that just this week we’ve started to see offensive production start to tick back up (25 runs in Wednesday’s Brewers/Reds game), so you want to keep an eye on these totals as the weather warms. It’s possible we could hit a good stretch of overs before Vegas corrects again.
