The Warriors will try and wrap up the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference finals tonight with a win in Game 4. I will fully own that I thought the Mavericks would pull this series out in seven games, which I guess technically still could happen, but appears to be highly unlikely.
Playoff Tale of the Tape:
|114.5 (1st)||Points Per Game||105.3 (10th)|
|108.3 (7th)||Points Allowed Per Game||104.5 (5th)|
|37.9% (3rd)||3PT Shooting %||37.3% (4th)|
|35.3% (8th)||Opponent 3PT Shooting %||34.9% (7th)|
|14.7 (13th)||Turnovers per game||9.6 (2nd)|
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Warriors Playoff Leaders:
- Stephen Curry, PG: 27.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, 38.4% 3PT
- Klay Thompson, SG: 19.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 38.8% 3PT
- Jordan Poole, SG: 18.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.4 APG, 39.5% 3PT
Mavericks Playoff Leaders:
- Luka Doncic, PG: 32.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47% FG
- Jalen Brunson, PG: 22.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 47.4% FG
- Spencer Dinwiddie, PG: 13.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 39.3% 3PT
- Gary Payton II, Golden State: Out (Elbow) Unlikely for Conference Finals
- Otto Porter Jr., Golden State: Doubtful (Foot)
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Game 4 Prediction and Free Pick:
- In the series preview, I spoke a lot about how the Mavericks had a good plan for Stephen Curry in the regular season. Well, that has not carried over into these playoffs. Curry is averaging 28 points per game in the series on 49% from the field with almost five made threes per game. The Mavericks just have no answer for him, and I’m not sure one is going to emerge prior to Game 4.
- Another issue in the series has been depth. The Mavericks simply don’t have the bodies to keep up with the Warriors’ pace. Now, that might be impacted by Porter Jr. missing Game 4 since Golden State will be without a rotational piece, but given their 3-0 series lead, I would imagine they’d feel comfortable going to the deeper parts of their bench if they needed to give their key players a rest.
- If Dallas hits their threes, they can stay in this game. They’ve been taking over 50% of their shots from three, but those have not been falling. If they do start to hit, they’ll be more likely to keep up with the Warriors, but none of the games in this series have been particularly close.
- The Mavericks will certainly come to play in front of their home crowd with their playoff lives on the line, but I just don’t think they have the talent to keep up.
- Last 5: DAL is 2-3 in their last 5 games. GS is 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Last 5 – ATS: DAL is 2-3-0 ATS in their last 5 games. GS is 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
- Last 5 – O/U: DAL is 2-3-0 in their last 5 games. GS is 2-3-0 in their last 5 games.
- Last 5 – Points Scored: DAL averaged 108 total points in their last 5 games. GS averaged 110.4 total points.
- Last 5 – Points Allowed: DAL allowed 104.6 points on average in their last 5 games. GS allowed 106.8 points.
- NBA FREE PICK: