2022 NBA Playoffs: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Preview, Odds, and Pick

The Warriors are up 3-0 on Dallas in the 2022 NBA Playoffs
Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Doncic is fouled by Stephen Curry as Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins watch during the second half of Game 3 of the NBA basketball playoffs Western Conference finals, Sunday, May 22, 2022, in Dallas. (Scott Strazzante/San Francisco Chronicle via AP)

The Warriors will try and wrap up the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference finals tonight with a win in Game 4. I will fully own that I thought the Mavericks would pull this series out in seven games, which I guess technically still could happen, but appears to be highly unlikely.

Playoff Tale of the Tape:

Golden State STAT Dallas
114.5 (1st) Points Per Game 105.3 (10th)
108.3 (7th) Points Allowed Per Game 104.5 (5th)
37.9% (3rd) 3PT Shooting % 37.3% (4th)
35.3% (8th) Opponent 3PT Shooting % 34.9% (7th)
14.7 (13th) Turnovers per game 9.6 (2nd)
8-6 Playoff O/U 6-10
8-6 Playoff ATS 9-7

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Warriors Playoff Leaders:

Klay Thompson leads the Warriors in the 2022 NBA Playoffs
Jan 11, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) drives to the basket as Memphis Grizzles forward Brandon Clarke (15) and guard Ja Morant (12) defend during the first half at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
  • Stephen Curry, PG: 27.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, 38.4% 3PT
  • Klay Thompson, SG: 19.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 38.8% 3PT
  • Jordan Poole, SG: 18.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.4 APG, 39.5% 3PT


Mavericks Playoff Leaders:

Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in the 2022 NBA Playoffs
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts in the second half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series against the Utah Jazz, Saturday, April 23, 2022, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
  • Luka Doncic, PG:  32.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47% FG
  • Jalen Brunson, PG:  22.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 47.4% FG
  • Spencer Dinwiddie, PG:  13.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 39.3% 3PT

Key Injuries:

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Game 4 Prediction and Free Pick:

  • In the series preview, I spoke a lot about how the Mavericks had a good plan for Stephen Curry in the regular season. Well, that has not carried over into these playoffs. Curry is averaging 28 points per game in the series on 49% from the field with almost five made threes per game. The Mavericks just have no answer for him, and I’m not sure one is going to emerge prior to Game 4.
  • Another issue in the series has been depth. The Mavericks simply don’t have the bodies to keep up with the Warriors’ pace. Now, that might be impacted by Porter Jr. missing Game 4 since Golden State will be without a rotational piece, but given their 3-0 series lead, I would imagine they’d feel comfortable going to the deeper parts of their bench if they needed to give their key players a rest.
  • If Dallas hits their threes, they can stay in this game. They’ve been taking over 50% of their shots from three, but those have not been falling. If they do start to hit, they’ll be more likely to keep up with the Warriors, but none of the games in this series have been particularly close.
  • The Mavericks will certainly come to play in front of their home crowd with their playoff lives on the line, but I just don’t think they have the talent to keep up.
  • Last 5: DAL is 2-3 in their last 5 games. GS is 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • Last 5 – ATS: DAL is 2-3-0 ATS in their last 5 games. GS is 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • Last 5 – O/U: DAL is 2-3-0 in their last 5 games. GS is 2-3-0 in their last 5 games.
  • Last 5 – Points Scored: DAL averaged 108 total points in their last 5 games. GS averaged 110.4 total points.
  • Last 5 – Points Allowed: DAL allowed 104.6 points on average in their last 5 games. GS allowed 106.8 points.