MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “34-25-5,” +5.58 units
Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Phillies Under 8.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Over/Under: 8
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: German Marquez (2-5, 6.49 ERA) vs. Blake Snell (0-3, 5.68 ERA)
Talk about buying two quality pitchers low. That’ll be the scenario here in San Diego.
For crying out loud, Blake Snell is a recent Cy Young Award winner. A lot of people write him off like he’s finished but even with an unpleasant 5.68 ERA next to his name, he’s definitely pitched far better than that and is actually clocking in with a higher average fastball velocity than the last two years. Snell clearly still has it and his 3.93 FIP is sufficient enough evidence.
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Let’s also remember that Snell’s beginning to the season was delayed by injury, so the former first-round draft pick is still in the process of settling in. After crafting 11.89 K/9 last season — not far off from his hardware-winning campaign of 2019, by the way — it was fair to wonder if his strikeout numbers would fall off. That is definitely not the case, though, as Snell is accumulating double-digit K’s per nine.
The matchup can also be of use to the left-hander getting his stats back closer to normal. In this assignment, he’ll be seeing one of the Majors’ worst-performing road teams at the dish. As has been a distinct trend through their franchise history, the Rockies are much less potent away from hitter-friendly Coors Field and that’s continued to ring true in 2022 with a team .625 OPS in away games that sits them third from last.
Like his counterpart, the other hurler in this affair, German Marquez, enters today’s series finale with potential to accumulate the punch-outs. At least based on his eye-opening history against the Padres, whom he’s 8-3 squaring off with in 15 ballgames (13 starts) while notching a 4.46 ERA and 10.71 K/9. That’s by far the highest strikeout rate he’s recorded opposite any one club in MLB.
Perhaps more important than anything is the fact that this will be a start outside of Colorado for Marquez. The seventh-year right-hander has always stitched very notable home-and-road splits across his career, obviously pitching better when away from Coors. His 3.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road easily best the 4.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP he’s engineered at home.
Plus, we’ll be banking on Marquez’s last outing — his first quality start in almost a month — being a building block of sorts for him to return to form. Given his current stat line, he’s already been at rock bottom and can only ascend from this point. I’m pinpointing him for at least decent work.
And that’s what this is mainly about. If Marquez and Snell are looking like they normally do, this game would generate a total of 7.5 instead of 8. But we know they’re both better than what the numbers may say and, each being in a spot to succeed this afternoon, they can deliver.
Pick: UNDER 8 (-120)
