MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “33-24-5,” +5.63 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Giants Under 8 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Zac Gallen (4-1, 2.40 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (3-2, 4.40 ERA)
The crusade of Zac Gallen unders rolls on.
We’ve already taken four of the ascending hurler’s 10 starts starts this year and nailed all of them. Overall, Gallen’s produced a 7-3 record toward under bets and he’ll be prime for another once again.
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Looking at the body of work Gallen has turned in thus far, an easy argument can be made that the 26-year-old will be deserving of his first ever All-Star nod. There’s still another month to go, of course, but there have been no signs of slowing down whatsoever from Gallen.
This is just the upper echelon pitcher that he is after showcasing notable potential since first arriving in The Show three years ago. Gallen has always been consistent and foreshadowed such in a better manner than anyone before him considering he set the record for most consecutive starts yielding three runs or fewer (23) to begin a Major League career
There’s been more of the same from Gallen in 2022 even after a delayed beginning to the campaign due to injury. But since his four-scoreless-innings season debut at Citi Field, he just isn’t letting go, as only one time this season did a club tag Gallen for more than two runs.
Unsurprisingly, Gallen is notching his best season numbers to date all across the board, entering tonight’s assignment with a 2.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and just 0.64 HR/9 allowed. He’s also one of only 11 starting pitchers in all of baseball to be holding hitters below the Mendoza Line — more specifically, opponents are hitting just .191 off Gallen, sixth-lowest in the big leagues.
The Phillies may be scorching right now since dismissing former manager Joe Girardi. However, these are the matchups Gallen craves and tends to succeed in. Either way, we can always feel good about entrusting him no matter the adversary.
Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson takes the hill for the home side and — like his counterpart is in the midst of trying to experience — knows a little something about recently making his first career All-Star appearance, which came a season ago.
Gibson may not be on pace to duplicate that impressive feat but the veteran right-hander still continues to look solid in his new digs after Philadelphia acquired him last year at the trade deadline. While he currently sports an unspectacular 4.40 ERA, he’s been almost as consistent as Gallen in limiting the majority of his opponents to no more than a pair of runs.
All the evidence you need to illustrate Gibson has pitched better than his numbers may suggest is that he’s registered a 3.46 FIP and 3.43 xFIP through his 11 starts. Interestingly, those marks are each lower than what they were in ’21 for his Midsummer Classic cameo.
But just as engulfing as anything, I really like this matchup for Gibson to excel in. The D-backs trot out one of least intimidating batting orders (with at least a handful of dead bats on a regular basis) in the sport and that lineup is most likely going to be downgraded on this occasion.
After getting drilled in the head yesterday, the club’s home run leader, Christian Walker (concussion protocol), figures to be on the bench for at least one game. He’s clubbed nearly twice as many taters (15) as anyone else on the Diamondbacks.
With the total at 8.5, more continued quality work from the two starters gets this one home for a score on the low side.