2022 NBA Playoffs: Heat vs Celtics Game 4 Preview, Odds, and Pick

The Heat and Celtics have had an aggressive 2022 NBA Playoffs series
May 21, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) runs into Miami Heat guard Kyle Lowry (right) in the fourth quarter during game three of the 2022 eastern conference finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. The Miami Heat took a 2-1 series lead after holding onto a 109-103 victory in Boston. Can they put a stranglehold on the series with a Game 4 victory?

If you want a more detailed look at this series, read our full series breakdown.

Playoff Tale of the Tape:

Celtics STAT Heat
109.3 (5th) Points Per Game 107.6 (8th)
103.5 (3rd) Points Allowed Per Game 100.6 (1st)
37.7% (4th) 3PT Shooting % 32.1% (13th)
32.7% (4th) Opponent 3PT Shooting % 34.8% (6th)
13.2 (9th) Turnovers per game 12.1 (4th)
7-7 Playoff O/U 5-9
9-5 Playoff ATS 9-5

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Boston Playoff leaders:

Jayson Tatum of the Celtics dribbles up the court
Jayson TatumPaul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
  • Jayson Tatum, F. – 26.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.9  APG, 1.4 SPG, 37.4% 3PT
  • Jaylen Brown, G. – 23.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 39.6% 3PT
  • Marcus Smart, G. – 15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 35.8% 3PT


Miami Playoff leaders:

Jimmy Butler attacks the basket in the 2022 NBA Playoffs
May 10, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) drives the ball around Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) during the second half in game five of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at FTX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
  • Jimmy Butler, SF:  28.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 2.2 SPG, 53.5% FG, 6.8 FTM/GM
  • Bam Adebayo, C:  14.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 60.9% FG
  • Tyler Herro, PG:  13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.9 APG, 23.2% 3PT

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Key Injuries:

  • Jimmy Butler, Miami: Probable (Knee)
  • Kyle Lowry, Miami: Probable (Hamstring strain)
  • Tyler Herro, Miami: Out (Groin)
  • Max Strus, Miami: Probably (Hamstring)
  • Gabe Vincent, Miami: Probable (Hamstring)
  • P.J. Tucker, Miami: Probable (Knee)
  • Jayson Tatum, Boston: Probable (Stinger)
  • Marcus Smart, Boston: Questionable (Ankle)
  • Robert Williams III, Boston: Questionable (Knee)


Game 2 Prediction and Free Pick:

  • Obviously, the big story here is all the injuries, which you can see listed in detail above. The outlook of the game could drastically shift in many directions based on the hours spent in the training room before the game, which is exactly why we waited until just a few hours before the game to get a prediction locked in on this game.
  • What we do know as of publishing is that Tyler Herro will be out for the Heat, but that the rest of the players will attend the pre-game warm-up as if they intend to play in the game. However, both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III remain questionable for the Celtics.
  • The Celtics have been playing nine men throughout much of the series, and their bench has out-performed the Heat bench, so losing one or both of Williams and Smart would shorten the Celtics bench and seem to cost them an advantage, especially with Herro out.
  • The Celtics continue to win the three-point battle, which they also won against Milwaukee, and will continue to be a huge part of their push to reach the NBA finals. Jaylen Brown has been great from deep, but they will need Tatum to be effective from beyond the arc in order to win. I personally don’t think Tatum will play as poorly as he did last game.
  • As of the time I’m making this pick, I will expect Marcus Smart will play but Robert Williams will not. The Williams injury would be a big one because Bam Adebayo has been playing really well in Williams’ absence, and it would put even more pressure on Al Horford defensively.