MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “32-24-5,” +4.63 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Guardians Under 7.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
First pitch: 3:45 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network (joined in progress)
Probable pitchers: Austin Gomber (2-6, 6.54 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (5-1, 3.82 ERA)
Oh wow. An over/under being that full, round 8 in a game at San Francisco is fairly uncommon, and it’s definitely rare when Logan Webb is set for a home start.
Undoubtedly, the placement of the total by the linesmakers has a lot more to do with the involvement of the other probable, Austin Gomber. Despite his unpleasant 6.54 ERA, however, there’s no question he’s pitched far better than that.
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Let’s begin with our rock for this bet in the form of Webb, who we can comfortably back when he’s on the Oracle Park mound. By that, I’m referring to how he’s been as steady as anyone in a home assignment, displaying a strong tendency that has continued to ring true in 2022.
Last year during his breakout campaign, Webb actually went unbeaten — 7-0 — through his 15 starts (not to mention one relief appearance), including postseason, by the bay, ultimately pitching to a 1.74 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in those outings. Furthermore, opponents only took Webb deep four times in his 88 innings within the pitcher-friendly confines of San Francisco and he also logged 10.53 K/9.
Webb is undefeated at home this season once again, being 3-0 with a 3.30 ERA. Similarly, he’s been keeping the ball in the yard, having not allowed a homer in front of Giants faithful. This is clearly Webb’s preferred setting in which he’s at his best.
Under bettors should also appreciate that the 25-year-holds respectable numbers against this division opponent. In fact, Webb has faced the Rockies more than anyone during his time in the big leagues, and is 4-1 with a 4.47 ERA in eight games (seven starts) matched opposite the fellow NL West resident. If you remove one really rough start at hitter’s haven Coors Field (which can happen to anyone), Webb would be sporting a much more illuminating 3.54 ERA in these meetings.
Plus remember that the Rockies are anchored toward the bottom of the Majors in team OPS on the road (.635) — as is standard. Additionally, they’ve cranked out fewer home runs than all but one team (Detroit Tigers) when outside of Coors.
But can we trust Gomber to not get rocked again? That’s been the exact outcome in each of his last two turns, in turn wrecking what was looking like a promising season.
Before that aforementioned pair of starts, the former fourth-round draft choice was working on a cool 4.11 ERA. Despite his recent troubles, I’m still willing to trust Gomber to get back closer to that form.
That may be a tough task, as Gomber hasn’t fared too well in his history when facing the Giants. I counter that by pointing to his one matchup with the reigning division champions earlier this year, when he pitched into the sixth and wasn’t bad. A similar showing here would be just fine given who the counterpart is.
This bet figures to come down to Gomber just needing to hang around. Considering he’s registered a 4.63 FIP and 4.09 xFIP even after those two most recent outings, I have no qualms about giving him a shot to settle back in. Gomber also could benefit from the fact that San Francisco is one of 12 teams in the Major Leagues hitting .240 or lower against left-handers.