2022 NCAA Tournament First Round: No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 13 Vermont Catamounts
How to Watch:
- Date: Thursday, March 17
- Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY
- TV: TNT
- Live Stream: NCAA.com
Tale of the Tape:
| No. 4 ARK | STAT | No. 13 UVM |
| SEC | Conference | American East |
| 25-8 | Record | 28-5 |
| 76.9 (T-48th) | Points Per Game | 74.9 (81st) |
| 68.5 | Points Allowed Per Game | 60.3 |
| 0.6014 (22nd) | RPI | 0.5772 (48th) |
| 46th | Strength of Schedule | 330th |
| At-Large Bid | Bid | Automatic Bid |
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Arkansas leaders:
- JD Notae, G, SR: 18.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.2 SPG
- Stanley Umude, G, SR: 11.8 points, 4.6 RPG, 1.1 APG, 37.1 3PT%
Vermont leaders:
- Ryan Davis, F, SR: 17.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.3 APG, 59.0% FG, 42.3% 3PT
- Ben Shungu, G, SR: 16.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 41.4% 3PT
Odds, Lines, and Past Performance:
- ARK Moneyline: -220
- UVM Moneyline: +180
- Spread: ARK -5
- Over/Under: 139
- ATS Record: ARK 20-11-1, UVM 19-13
- Over/Under Record: ARK 2o-13, UVM 18-14
Odds courtesy of Draftkings. For the latest odds, click here.
The Pick:
- We covered the Catamounts as one of our first-round upset best bets, so the betting line being so close doesn’t surprise us. The Catamounts have been the regular-season champion of the American East Conference for the last six years, all under coach John Becker, and have three trips to the NCAA tournament in that span. Their current roster features five players who were on that 2019 tournament team, including their two best players, Ben Shungu and Ryan Davis. It’s safe to say that those guys won’t be rattled by the bright lights.
- The Catamounts like to play at a slow pace (288th in the country in adjusted tempo) and take the 54th-most threes per game in the nation. As a good defensive team that doesn’t turn the ball over much, there is a path to an upset that involves them slowing the game down and hitting from deep, especially against a Razorback team that ranks 313th in the country in 3PT% so isn’t likely to hit a bunch of threes if they need points in bunches.
- However, the Razorbacks will want to push the pace as they are 28th in adjusted tempo. That fast pace has led to a fair share of missed shots, as they are just 191st in the country, shooting 44% from the field, which could be a problem against a Catamounts team that is 2nd in the country in rebounds allowed to the opposition.
- Lastly, both of these teams have hit the over more often than not this season, and both are in the top 82 in points per game, so this over/under is not set at a total that should scare us away from looking at that angle.
