MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals
Over/Under: 9
First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Daniel Lynch (0-0, -.– ERA) vs. Dakota Hudson (0-0, -.– ERA)
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The new season gets its first taste of the annual I-70 series between the Royals and Cardinals, albeit in a mini two-game set.
Both offenses have come out raking so far, with St. Louis not even churning out any unders yet. Kansas City, meanwhile, is coming off an explosive back half of their four-game series against Cleveland that saw a whopping 37 runs tallied in the two bouts.
Will this pitching matchup change things?
That remains to be seen, but I believe it can. The over/under being as high as 9 is a nice caveat considering contests at Busch Stadium aren’t normally as inflated by the linesmakers when it comes to totals.
Such a high number can potentially be capitalized on since Dakota Hudson is doing the dealing at home. Since arriving in the Majors four years ago, he’s manufactured a pretty stellar 2.40 ERA across 36 games (22 starts) in St. Louis while limiting opposing hitters to a paltry .207/.302/.333 slash line.
Of course, Hudson is still in the process of returning from injury after missing all but two appearances last year while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Based on that work and his satisfactory showings throughout spring training, I believe he’s healthy enough to continue where he left off prior to the injury. Between 2019 and 2020, Hudson was 19-9 with a 3.24 ERA in 40 starts.
The Mississippi State product also has a little experience taking on the Royals, churning out a 2.13 ERA in three games (two starts) opposite this adversary.
Daniel Lynch, meanwhile, is about to embark on his second season in the big leagues. Though he concluded his freshman campaign with a 5.69 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, there was some bad luck to that as well, as evidenced by the .335 batting average on balls put in play with the lefty on the hill.
Before coming apart a bit in September — which can happen to any youngster — Lynch was working on a respectable rookie showing, carrying a 4.47 ERA into the season’s final month. It’s also notable that the recent first-round draft choice didn’t surrender more than four runs in any of his seven assignments on the road.
With a year under his belt, Lynch seems poised to at least take the next step forward. Even though he’s beginning the season on the road, he’s capable of at least preventing the Cards from putting up a crooked number.
Lastly, both bullpens are typically dependable, so, with fine starting pitching preceding those two units, there’s enough to work with here to prevent an offensive explosion. Pick: UNDER 9 (-110)
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “1-2-2,” -1.25 units
Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Rangers Under 10 (“Push”)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
