MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Corbin Burnes (0-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. John Means (0-0, 2.25 ERA)

Camden Yards has long carried the reputation of serving as a haven for hitters since first being introduced. Yet, they had the outfield fences moved back this offseason, and the early returns indicate that times are a changin’.

Though only two games have been played — the first two in this series — since the changes, it’s still very notable that only 11 total runs were scored. To put this into perspective, there wasn’t a single pair of back-to-back games in Baltimore last year that had as few as 11 runs on the scoreboard (not including seven-inning doubleheaders). So, yes, it’s only been two games but that’s still a significant observation.

Corbin Burnes doesn’t even need the advantage of having that left-field fence pushed back 30 feet. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner only gave up seven — seven! — homers during the entire 2021 campaign in 28 starts. Opponents have a tough enough time as is simply trying to make contact off Burnes, hence how he registered 12.6 K/9 a year ago. Not only did that mark lead all of Major League Baseball, but it’s also one of the best strikeout rates by a starter ever.

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True, the right-hander didn’t start off his year on the sensational note most were expecting. Burnes still looked good for most of the outing, though, notching zeroes on the scoreboard until his fifth frame; and that was mostly the result of a fluky Niko Hoerner long ball (first home run in about 300 at-bats). Burnes is just getting warmed up and at least draws another relatively light-hitting challenger in the Orioles.

He’ll be squaring off with fellow Opening Day starter John Means, who is coming off a nice overall season debut in Tampa. The former All-Star should be someone to watch in the coming months whenever taking the mound at home. He’s always been pretty good in Baltimore (career 3.94 ERA) despite its formerly hitter-friendly conditions, so with the fence being moved back and even slightly raised a few feet as well, Means should benefit considerably.

His first start in the new possible pitcher’s park era of Camden Yards comes against a good team — but also one that has struggled against lefties in recent years. Going back the last two seasons, Milwaukee is hitting just .233 opposite left-handed pitching while striking out at a decently-high rate, too. That hasn’t begun to change yet, as they’re hitting a paltry .222 off southpaws in the early going.

Not very promising if the Brew Crew batting order is going to turn things around in this department. In the meantime, this then presents a fine opportunity for Means to spin a quality start. Those are so precious when pursuing an over/under of 8 or higher.

Above all will be the reliance on Burnes to deliver what he did so often last year on a regular basis. His mastery in this pitcher-friendlier environment is a good mix to paint the tone of a lower-scoring contest. Pick: UNDER 8 (-110)

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “1-3-2,” -2.35 units

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Cardinals Under 9 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit