MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Luis Cessa – (0-0, 0.00 ERA * 2.2 IP as a RP) vs. Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.60 ERA)

Only appropriate that Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers tonight in the home opener. The man is practically unhittable when going at Dodger Stadium.

Buehler is a career 22-6 across 53 games (49 starts) in Chavez Ravine alongside a shiny 2.30 ERA and 0.90 WHIP for his career — that doesn’t even include his fabulous 2.01 ERA at home in the playoffs.

He’s also accumulating a tasty 10.3 K/9. No matter what time of year, the former first-round draft pick simply owns the place and it is that striking consistency that is worth betting on when the opportunity presents itself. Here, Buehler is also getting an opponent he can handle in order to help ensure those home splits ring true.

Cincinnati isn’t terrible at the plate, but Buehler has churned out all quality work when seeing this opponent. He’s posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in five lifetime meetings with the Reds. Those performances also consisted of 11.2 K/9, and considering the Red Legs have punched out 59 times already in just six games, this looks like a spot for Buehler to thrive. Working with a high total, a standout showing from the Vanderbilt product can dictate the result.

But of course, there’s a lot with the game total that can hinge on the Reds’ pitching situation. They’re going with an opener in the form of Luis Cessa, which can bring about a whole variety of possible final outcomes.

Cessa does have some experience as a starter from his time with the Yankees. However, he’ll likely be asked to pitch just the first inning or two before ceding the mound to Reiver Sanmartin. Yes, I know, that’s not exactly the name you want to be hinging our “under” hopes on, especially after not looking too hot in his 2022 debut last week, but the Reds’ strategy is what could help Sanmartin contribute serviceable results.

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Cessa is a right-hander, and if he’s able to navigate through most of the stud-ly Dodgers lineup the first time around, the different look of a lefty in Sanmartin could do wonders, especially if the southpaw sees the batting order once. Sanmartin had a 1.54 ERA and 8.49 K/9 in two MLB starts last year and pitched to a 3.94 ERA, and 9.73 K/9 in 21 games at Triple-A, so he has had some success at the higher levels despite his rough first outing.

From there, if those two can keep ‘under’ backers in business through the first half of the games, I have no beef trusting the Reds bullpen for the back-end of the contest. This is a group that’s been much improved compared to a year ago, even carrying an ERA (3.95) that is more than a full run lower than where it was at the end of last season (4.99). Names like Tony Santillan, Buck Farmer, and Art Warren are perfectly acceptable to put our trust into.

However, Buehler’s presence, as usual, is the key to this bet. After a solid first start of the campaign on the road at Coors Field, the right-hander looks like he’s already in mid-season form. A terrific showing also gives the Reds’ pitching battalion room for error. Pick: UNDER 8.5 (EV)

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “2-3-2,” -1.35 units

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Orioles Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit