MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

Over/Under: 11.5

First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Drew Smyly (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Austin Gomber (0-0, 5.79 ERA)

Having a bet on a Coors Field total is unlike anything else in sports gambling.

Of course, throughout the long run, there is a surplus of runs present in Colorado compared to anywhere else (with the exception of Wrigley Field when the winds are significantly blowing out), and in turn, these games typically draw the highest over/under numbers on the schedule.

That is once again the case this afternoon, when the Cubs and Rockies conclude their three-game set. The first two both saw a score on the high side.

For the series finale, though, I’m not envisioning another offensive-heavy affair. On one side, there is Austin Gomber to combat those bats, and although this is only his second campaign with the club, the 28-year-old has already exhibited a penchant in surviving his home outings.

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Not only that, Gomber was thriving. Yes, he did only make nine starts at Coors last year but considering he converted those assignments into a 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, the southpaw can definitely provide advantageous opportunities on inflated totals. With this over/under being as high as 11.5, even a pedestrian six-inning, four-run performance could prove plenty useful.

Gomber was mostly pretty good his first time out earlier this week against the Rangers in their home opener. Two of the runs charged to his name came after he departed with two outs in the bottom of the fifth inning and generally did a nice job on the potent Texas lineup. That helps ensure he still has a steady mindset entering his first home start of the season.

The other starter, Smyly, is also coming off an encouraging 2022 debut, one that saw him toss five scoreless frames en route to garnering a win opposite the Bucs.

While Smyly only punched out one batter in the victory, that’s OK because the left-hander is not the high-strikeout pitcher he used to be. With this iteration of Smyly, we’re getting someone that will be going to his curve a lot more, and the outcome of that strategy was desirable in his first start when he induced 11 groundball outs of the 17 at-bats that resulted in contact.

True, the Rockies are dangerous at the plate and usually excel even more when facing a lefty but I think the style of Smyly keeping the ball out of the air can be very helpful in helping attain a low final score.

Remember that this isn’t any ordinary total. Smyly’s tactics and continued momentum from his season debut are something worth having action on in this particular spot. Another steady showing from Gomber helps pace an under result.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “3-4-3,” -1.35 units

Yesterday’s Result: Diamondbacks-Mets Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit