MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Nick Lodolo (0-1, 11.25 ERA) vs. Sean Manaea (1-1, 1.38 ERA)

Apr 14, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) reacts after striking out against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

In matchups comprised of two left-handed starters, it is vital for a bettor to review how those teams do against lefties.

Here, we have a pair of offenses that don’t particularly rake when seeing a southpaw on the mound. That’s been especially true for the Reds, who are struggling mightily thus far but even more so when having to take on a left-hander.

Cincy currently owns the Majors’ fourth-lowest team OPS (.526) in this department and their putrid .179 team batting average opposite lefties ranks them 25th. With leadoff man Jonathan India (hamstring) currently out, the Reds have proceeded to scuffle even more.

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All of this figures to play into the hands of Sean Manaea. The throwin’ Samoan is out to a sensational start in 2022 and those that follow baseball closely know this has been a long time coming after exhibiting years of glaring promise with the Athletics.

Manaea has notched two quality starts in as many tries to begin his tenure with the Padres, doing so in convincing form. He’s compiled 13 strikeouts already compared to just three walks, which continues a trend from last year when he registered a career-best strikeout rate with 9.7 K/9.

There will be a little extra emotion involved, too, this being Manaea’s home debut at Petco Park. Given the venue’s historic friendly nature toward pitchers, this is something he can capitalize on. No matter, I just love the seventh-year hurler in this spot while riding so high right now.

That’s presumably the easier part of deciphering this total. The hard part is gauging what to anticipate from Manaea’s rookie counterpart tonight, Nick Lodolo.

The 2019 No. 7 overall draft pick flashed some of the potential that led to him being a highly-touted prospect in his first career outing last week. While he didn’t come away with the prettiest stat line, Lodolo did show off just enough to warrant trust.

First, a reason for Lodolo’s mixed debut could possibly be attributed to a more-than-40-minute rain delay in Cincinnati. Having high expectations is difficult enough and then having to sit on that extra while waiting around is challenging.

When things did finally get underway, Lodolo experienced an unusual second inning in which he saw five batters reach base (and two crossing the plate before the end of the frame) without allowing a single hit. Otherwise, most of the damage done against him was a two-out homer by Jose Ramirez, which is normal for anyone.

Back to that point about teams against lefties, herein lies the opportunity for a fine showing from Lodolo tonight. San Diego is hitting just .221 opposite southpaws one the early going, this after a season in which they finished hitting .241 as a team to rank in the bottom third of baseball. So long as Lodolo gets the nerves out of the way, something I think he’ll do, he has the chance to shine — or at least hang in there — against a Fernando Tatis Jr.-less Padres offense.

Manaea is the key to this bet, however. If he continues on this path he’s started for himself that could land him in his first-ever All-Star Game, that should lead the way.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “4-4-3,” -0.35 units

Yesterday’s Result: Cubs-Rockies Under 11.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit