MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Luis Severino (2-0, 4.08 ERA) vs. Kyle Bradish (1-1, 4.24 ERA)

Time to start paying attention to Kyle Bradish just three starts into his career.

The former fourth-round draft pick made his Major League debut at the end of April and did so in impressive fashion, notching a quality start against a mighty franchise like the Red Sox. Last time out for his first road assignment, he pitched at storied Busch Stadium and not only did he clock out with another quality start, Bradish registered 11 K’s in seven sharp innings.

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So you see, bettors would be wise to start monitoring Bradish closely. While this is as tough a task as any could be for a pitcher, — taking on the New York Yankees — there could be certain factors at work that, in turn, boost the youngster’s outlook.

Aside from Bradish already displaying the moxie that you’d want to see from a rookie going into such a challenge, he’ll also gain a notable edge just from being at home.

Yes, don’t forget the significant changes made to Camden Yards prior to the campaign — and those alterations have made quite a difference. Did you know games in Baltimore this year are 11-4-1 to the under? Overall, the O’s are a salivating 24-9-2 in cashing totals on the low side.

Furthermore, the Yankees — as regularly dangerous as they are — are at least a little less potent when taking the batter’s box away from (Little League park) Yankee Stadium. In fact, their OPS is nearly 50 points lower on the road (.719) than at home (.765). Of course, New York is packed with enough power to rake anywhere but these tendencies at least offer hope that the ceiling is a bit capped. In their first three games at this new-look park, the Yanks tallied only six runs total.

A big reason the Orioles have been so profitable for unders gamblers is they’re also lacking a lot on offense. Baltimore is collectively tied for the fifth-fewest home runs (25) in all of baseball, and now they’re without the offense’s most dynamic player, Ryan Mountcastle (wrist).

Well, expect a resurgent Luis Severino to take advantage. The 28-year-old has had a strong return so far in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery and I don’t see how that can’t continue aside from letting go mentally. But Sevy is not that type of starting pitcher to let go.

That would point to the right-hander building off his last outing, which saw him not go five innings for the first time since his 2022 debut, but also punch out a season-high eight batters. To me, that’s a sign Severino is only getting stronger now.

He always feasted on strikeouts, etching 10.53 K/9 across his two seasons (2017-18) before landing on the sidelines for a lengthy amount of time. This season, that rate stands at 9.73 K/9 but Severino’s most recent start provides optimism he’s getting more into his old form. The velocity has certainly been there as well.

Plus, he’ll be getting a familiar foe and one whom he’s had success against throughout his career. In nine starts (and two relief appearances) opposite the O’s, Severino went 6-1 with a 3.59 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. That latter number is actually the lowest such mark he’s posted against any club he’s seen more than one time.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “20-14-4,” +4.06 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Mets Under 7.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit