Golden State Warriors (44-22) at Denver Nuggets (40-26)
Thursday, March 10 @ Ball Arena in Denver, CO
How to Watch
- 10:00 ET on TNT
Betting Lines
- GSW -2.0 (Caesars, DraftKings FanDuel), GSW -2.0 (BetMGM)
- O/U 228.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) O/U 228 (Caesars)
- Golden State: 32-30-4 ATS, 14-16-2 ATS on the road, 29-35-2 O/U
- Denver: 31-35 ATS, 13-18 ATS at home, 34-30-2 O/U
- Pace of play: Golden State is 12th; Denver is 20th
Recent Play (last 10 games)
- Warriors: 3-7; 114.9 PG, 42.5 RPG, 27.2 APG, 9.1 SPG, and 3.8 BPG, while shooting 48.4% from the field and allowing 115.6 points per game.
- Nuggets: 9-1; 120.3 PPG, 46.6 RPG, 28.8 APG, 8.5 SPG, and 3.6 BPG, while shooting 49.5% from the field and allowing 111.3 points per game
Key Injuries
- Draymond Green; GSW, PF: Out (Back) Green claims he’ll be back March 14th
- Otto Porter Jr.; GSW, SF: Out (Illness) He’s missed three games now
- Gary Payton Jr.; GSW, G: Out (Knee)
- Aaron Gordon; DEN, PF: Probable (Foot) Gordon is not 100% but the Nuggets need him so he’ll play
- Jeff Green; DEN, PF: Questionable (Personal) Green missed Wednesday’s game as well
- Will Barton; DEN, SF: Questionable (Ankle) Has missed the last two games
- Bones Hyland; DEN, PG: Questionable (Knee) He missed Wednesday’s game
What to Watch For:
On the surface, this seems to be a game of two teams going in opposite directions. The Nuggets come into this one on fire, but also a little banged up. The team has been firing on all cylinders of late, even shooting almost 50% from the field. However, their three-point shooting over that period (34.6%) has been slightly worse than their 16th-ranked mark on the season (35.2%). Still, they continue to shoot from beyond the arc at a decent clip, ranking 12th in three-point attempts per game on the season and 10th over the last ten games.
This could be a big storyline in this game as the Warriors are the 3rd-best defense against three-pointers this season, allowing only 33.8% from deep. If the Nuggets are going to keep hoisting them up at a decent clip, they need to be falling if they are going to come out in front in this one.
On the other side of the ball, we know the Warriors love to shoot from deep, ranking 3rd in the NBA in three-point attempts and 6th over the last ten games. However, the Nuggets are also a strong defense on the perimeter, ranking as the 6th best defense against three-pointers. A big factor in who comes out with the win tonight might be who defends the three up to their season-long standards or who struggles through injuries to strong perimeter defenders like Green and Barton.
Another key factor in this game will be the battle on the boards. On the season, the Warriors have been the better rebounding team, ranking 8th in rebounds per game while the Nuggets rank 20th. However, over the last ten games, the Warriors have struggled on the glass, averaging over three rebounds a game less, falling down to 21st while the NUggets have been the 8th-best rebounding team. Neither team is really impactful on the offensive glass or give up a lot of offensive rebounds, so second-chance points should be hard to come by if both teams can rebound up to their potential.
One final storyline will be the Nuggets’ ability to control possession. They currently rank 24th in the NBA with 13.7 turnovers per game. Even during this recent hot streak, they have been last in the NBA with 16.1 turnovers per game. That could be an issue against a Warriors team that is 2nd in the NBA on the season with 9.3 steals per game and 3rd in the NBA over the last ten games with 9.1 steals per game. If the Nuggets can’t fix their turnover issues then they leave themselves ripe for a home loss.
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Popular Player Props:
(These are the most popular props for the game as of this writing. They are not predictions or recommendations. We advise doing your own research before placing bets on any props mentioned.)
- Aaron Gordon, F Denver: Under 14.5 Points (-122)
- Gordon has failed to hit this mark in eight of his last ten games. We mentioned that the Nuggets may need him more tonight, but he’s also not 100%, so it’s hard to have much faith in him to do something more than he’s been doing lately.
- Kevin Looney, PF, Golden State: Under 9 Rebounds (-167)
- Looney has bested this mark in only three of his last ten games and pushed it two additional times. We already talked about how good a rebounding team the Nuggets are, so that might be baked into why people seem to be liking the under here.
- Jonathan Kuminga, SF, Golden State: Under 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-250)
- Kuminga has topped this number in just four of his last ten games. We also discussed the stellar three-point defense of both teams. We know Kuminga will get more playing time tonight, but it might still be worth taking the under here.
