Well, we had a pretty good day last night, going 9-3 in a big twelve-game Monday night slate. We’ll see if we can keep the momentum going in a smaller six-game slate of NBA action on Tuesday. Let’s dive into the schedule, odds, and top picks for Wednesday, April 6, 2022.
NBA Odds and Schedule, April 6
Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons 7:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: DAL -8.5
- Over/Under: 218.5
- Mavs last 10: 6-4
- Mavs ATS: 44-33-2 (5th)
- Pistons last 10: 5-5
- Pistons ATS: 45-34 (4th)
- Home/Road Splits: Mavs 22-18 Away, Pistons 13-26 at home
- Pace of Play: Pistons are 12th in the NBA in pace, and the Mavericks are 30th.
- The pick: Pistons (+8.5)
- Why?: As you can see from the numbers above, the Pistons have been pretty good against the spread on the season. However, they have also gone 18-2 against the spread in their last 20 games and are 20-12-1 against the spread as a home underdog. Dallas has clinched a playoff spot, and while they could be playing to leapfrog Golden State for the third seed, there is also just as strong a likelihood that they try not to run their starters into the ground too much. I’ll ride the hot streak here and keep it going with the Pistons.
Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: BKN -5
- Over/Under: 229.5
- Nets last 10: 5-5
- Nets ATS: 30-45-4 (29th)
- Knicks last 10: 5-5
- Knicks ATS: 37-42 (20th)
- Home/Road Splits: Nets are 18-21 at home, Knicks are 19-21 on the road
- Pace of Play: Nets are 10th in the NBA in pace, Knicks are tied for 27th.
- The pick: Obi Toppin over 26.5 PRA (Points+Rebounds+Assists)
- Why?: It took a roundabout path, but the Knicks fan clamoring that the team is better without Julius Randle have started to see that play out recently. With the former All-Star sitting out while he demands a trade from the team, the Knicks have been turning to a youth movement of late. The team has a better NET Rating this season with Randle off the court, and Obi Toppin in particular has been thriving with the extra minutes. He’s played over 30 minutes each of the last two games and produced 28 and 31 PRA. The Knicks have also been playing at a faster pace with the young guys out there, so I think this game should have enough possessions to give Toppin the opportunities to hit this total.
For more NBA odds today and news, visit TailgateSports.com
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: ATL -10.5
- Over/Under: 234
- Wizards last 10: 6-4
- Wizards ATS: 32-45-2 (27th)
- Haws last 10: 7-3
- Hawks ATS: 35-44 (24th)
- Home/Road Splits: Hawks are 26-14 at home, Wizards are 14-25 on the road
- Pace of Play: Hawks are 19th in the NBA in pace, Wizards are 23rd.
- The pick: Tomas Satoransky over 6.5 assists
- Why?: Well, we covered this prop last night, so let’s go back to the well. Satoransky has now hit this in six straight games. Here is what I wrote yesterday: “Satoransky’s minutes have been trending down a bit over the last two games; however, he has still managed to go over this total in each of his last five games. It’s also important to note that Satoransky has seen fewer minutes of late (20 versus Boston and 15th versus Dallas) because both games had 30+ point differentials. Again, he was still able to beat this prop in both of those games, but if this game is a bit closer, we can expect Satoransky to get closer to 25 minutes, which has been leading to double-digit assist totals of late.” He had only 20 minutes versus the Timberwolves, but it was another 20-point blowout. Washington only played eight players at all, so I still expect Satoransky to see a good floor of minutes and hit this prop against a Hawks team that ranks 23rd in assists allowed per game.
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls, 8:00 p.m ET
- Spread: BOS -7
- Over/Under: 222
- Celtics last 10: 8-2
- Celtics ATS: 41-36-2 (11th)
- Bulls last 10: 4-6
- Bulls ATS: 41-37-1 (12th)
- Home/Road Splits: Bulls are 27-12 at home, Celtics are 21-17 on the road
- Pace of Play: Bulls are tied for 16th in the NBA in pace, Celtics are 24th
- The pick: Zach LaVine over 4.5 assists
- Why?: Part of our pick against the Bulls yesterday was that we expect Zach LaVine to sit and rest up for today. With LaVine now playing but Lonzo Ball out for the season and Alex Caruso doubtful with a back injury, this makes the LaVine assist prop more intriguing. In games without both Caruso and Ball, LaVine averages 5.2 assists and has hit this total in 13 of 17 games, which is a 76.5% hit rate. That’s good news since I think people will be scared away from this prop since he’s only hit this number in one of his last five. Again, we’ll play this because of the injury news and increased opportunity for LaVine
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: UTA -17.5
- Over/Under: 219.5
- Thunder last 10: 4-6
- Thunder ATS: 47-27-5 (2nd)
- Jazz last 10: 4-6
- Jazz ATS: 31-46-2 (28th)
- Home/Road Splits: Thunder are 12-26 on the road, Jazz are 28-11 at home
- Pace of Play: Thunder are tied for 12th in the NBA in pace, Jazz are 22nd.
- The pick: TBD
- Why?: Props have not yet been released, so check back later
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: LAC -2.5
- Over/Under: 226.5
- Suns last 10: 8-2
- Suns ATS: 42-37 (10th)
- Clippers last 10: 4-6
- Clippers ATS: 39-40 (16th)
- Home/Road Splits: Suns are 31-8 on the road, Clippers are 22-16 at home
- Pace of Play: Suns are 9th in the NBA in pace, and the Clippers are 18th.
- The pick: Clippers (-2.5)
- Why?: This is all about the playoff context. The Suns are 8th games up on the Grizzlies in the Western Conference. They have the top seed all but locked up with just three games left to play this season. They also just played a 10:30 PM ET game last night, beating the Lakers to knock them out of playoff contention. I just can’t see Phoenix playing their starters heavy minutes, which makes me like the Clippers more in this game. However, the Clippers also seem locked into the 8th-seed, so if you think neither team will play their starters all that much, you could bet the under at 226.5.
NBA prop stats courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here.
