As the NBA regular season inches to a close, we have a smaller seven-game slate of NBA action on Thursday. Let’s dive into the schedule, odds, and top picks for Thursday, April 7, 2022.
NBA Odds and Schedule, April 7
Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets 7:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: CHA -14
- Over/Under: 230.5
- Magic last 10: 3-7
- Magic ATS: 36-44 (22nd)
- Hornets last 10: 6-4
- Hornets ATS: 42-35-2 (7th)
- Home/Road Splits: Magic are 10-30 on the road, Hornets are 20-19 at home
- Pace of Play: Hornets are tied for 4th in the NBA in pace, and the Magic are 11th.
- The pick: P.J. Washington under 21.5 PRA (Points+Rebounds+Assists)
- Why?: I’m not sure I understand this one. I know Gordon Hayward is doubtful for this game, but he also hasn’t played since Saturday and Washington hasn’t hit this total consistently. In fact, Washington’s PRA totals over the last eight games are: 23, 18, 20, 20, 34, 12, 14, 18. So he’s hit in just two of his last eight games, and that’s while playing 30.6 minutes per game over that span. The Magic and young and feisty, so even though they are tanking, they’ve only allowed 111 points per game over the last ten. I just have a hard time getting behind the prop being this year.
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: MIL -6.5
- Over/Under: 227.5
- Celtics last 10: 8-2
- Celtics ATS: 42-36-2 (10th)
- Bucks last 10: 6-4
- Bucks ATS: 38-41 (17th)
- Home/Road Splits: Celtics are 22-17 on the road, Bucks are 26-14 at home.
- Pace of Play: Bucks are tied for 7th in the NBA in pace, and the Celtics are 24th.
- The pick: Jrue Holiday over 1.5 threes
- Why?: This is a tough game. The Celtics can still get the number two seed in the Eastern Conference, but we just don’t know if they’re willing to risk injury to their key starters to move up one spot in the playoff seeding. Especially since they played last night. As you can see above, the Celtics are certainly playing good basketball of late, but I’m not sure if we’re going to see everything they’ve got tonight, which Vegas seems to agree with given the line. With all that being said, I’m not gonna take a big chance with my call here. Holiday has his this prop in eight of his last ten games and has a three-point make in each of those ten games. The Celtics are playing great defense, but since I’m not convinced we see their starters the usual amount, I’ll take my shot on Holiday here.
For more NBA odds today and news, visit TailgateSports.com
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: PHI -1.5
- Over/Under: 220
- 76ers last 10: 6-4
- 76ers ATS: 37-41-1 (18th)
- Raptors last 10: 7-3
- Raptors ATS: 46-33 (3rd)
- Home/Road Splits: 76ers are 27-13 on the road, Raptors are 22-17 at home
- Pace of Play: Raptors are 25th in the NBA in pace, and the 76ers are tied for 26th.
- The pick: Tobias Harris over 1.5 threes
- Why?: We hit this a couple of nights ago when Tobias Harris had five threes against the Pacers, but his line hasn’t moved, so we’re going to try to hit it again. The 76ers currently sit in 4th but are only a half-game out of 2nd place in the Eastern Conference, so I think they go for it here. Harris has cleared this prop in eight of ten games and could get a bit more breathing room on offense if the Raptors choose to rest OG Anunoby, which I believe they will with a playoff spot locked up.
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:00 p.m ET
- Spread: MIN -8.5
- Over/Under: 241.5
- Spurs last 10: 8-2
- Spurs ATS: 40-37-2 (12th)
- Wolves last 10: 5-5
- Wolves ATS: 43-36-1 (8th)
- Home/Road Splits: Spurs are 18-21 on the road, Wolves are 24-14 at home
- Pace of Play: The Timberwolves are 1st in the NBA in pace, and the Spurs are tied for 4th
- The pick: Tre Jones over 24.5 PRA
- Why?: So, unlike the PJ Washington play, this is an increased line I can get behind. With Dejounte Murray out, Jones has seen 33.3 minutes per game at point guard for San Antonio. Over those three games, he is averaging 13.7 points, 8.7 assists, and 5.3 rebounds, which is a PRA of 27.7. His well-rounded game and consistent minutes make me feel pretty good about this play regardless of the opponent, but the pace of play in this game should be really quick, which will mean more possessions and more opportunities for him to rack up stats of all kinds.
Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: NO -17
- Over/Under: 224
- Blazers last 10: 1-9
- Blazers ATS: 30-47-2 (30th)
- Pelicans last 10: 7-3
- Pelicans ATS: 40-38-1 (15th)
- Home/Road Splits: Blazers are 10-29 on the road, Pelicans are 18-21 at home
- Pace of Play: Blazers are tied for 14th in the NBA in pace, and the Pelicans are 21st.
- The pick: CJ McCollum under 6.5 assists
- Why?: This is another game where I’m just not sure how much motivation there will be. The Pelicans are in the play-in tournament, and the Blazers are looking forward to the draft. This shouldn’t be an overly competitive game, so I’m not sure we’re going to see the Pelicans’ starters for too long, which makes me naturally lean towards the under on a lot of these props. Then we see that McCollum has only hit this total in one of his last ten games, and I’m leaning even harder towards the under.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: DEN -5.5
- Over/Under: 232.5
- Grizzlies last 10: 8-2
- Grizzlies ATS: 51-27-1 (1st)
- Nuggets last 10: 5-5
- Nuggets ATS: 36-44 (21st)
- Home/Road Splits: Grizzlies are 26-14 on the road, Nuggets are 22-17 at home
- Pace of Play: Grizzlies are 3rd in the NBA in pace, and the Nuggets are 20th.
- The pick: Nikola Jokic over 49.5 PRA
- Why?: I don’t understand this. The Grizzlies are locked into the second seed and will be playing without Ja Morant again. They’ve been a tremendous team without him and I wouldn’t count them out, but they don’t really need this game. The Nuggets could move up to 5th in the Western Conference, but they also don’t really need this game. Still, the line is far too low for Jokic. I mean, the man has hit this in eight of his last ten games and each of his last six. Over that six-game stretch, his PRA average is 59.8, which is obviously significantly over tonight’s line, so even if he’s not his usual self, I still think he can clear this.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: GS -13
- Over/Under: 221.5
- Lakers last 10: 2-8
- Lakers ATS: 33-44-2 (26th)
- Warriors last 10: 3-7
- Warriors ATS: 39-36-4 (13th)
- Home/Road Splits: Lakers are 11-28 on the road, Warriors are 30-10 at home
- Pace of Play: Lakers are 6th in the NBA in pace, and the Warriors are tied for 14th.
- The pick: Under 221.5
- Why?: The Lakers are out of playoff contention and limping towards the finish of a disastrous season. The Warriors are without Stephen Curry and licked into either the third or fourth seed in the Western Conference. I just don’t see a lot of motivation on either side tonight, so that, paired with a strong Warriors defense, has me feeling like the under is the best place to go here if you want to place a bet.
NBA prop stats courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here.
