2022 MLB Divisional Previews: AL East

(Using FanGraphs 2022 projections, odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Projected Standings

Team	W	L	W%	Odds to win Division	Odds to make Playoffs
Blue Jays	92	70	.568	+170	-390
Yankees	90	72	.557	+200	-400
Red Sox	87	75	.536	+550	-120
Rays	86	76	.531	+320	-205
Orioles	65	97	.403	+15000	+1800

Toronto Blue Jays

Key Additions

Raimel Tapia, OF (3/24, acquired from Rockies)
Matt Chapman, 3B (3/16, acquired from Athletics)
Yusei Kikuchi, SP (3/12, agreed to three-year contract)
Kevin Gausman, SP (11/28, agreed to five-year contract)
Yimi Garcia, RP (11/27, agreed to two-year contract)

Key Subtractions

Randal Grichuk, OF (traded to Rockies)
Kevin Smith, 3B/SS prospect (traded to Athletics)
Zach Logue, SP prospect (traded to Athletics)
Marcus Semien, 2B/SS (signed with Rangers)
Steven Matz, SP (signed with Cardinals)
Robbie Ray, SP (signed with Mariners)
Corey Dickerson, OF (signed with Cardinals)

Players to Know (with 2022 ATC projected stats):

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 1B: .305 avg, .584 SLG, 41 HRs, 107 Runs, 109 RBIs, three SBs
José Berrios, SP: 13 wins, 3.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 26.1 K%

New York Yankees

Key Additions

Jose Trevino, C (4/2, acquired from Rangers)
Josh Donaldson, 3B (3/13, acquired from Twins)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS (3/13, acquired from Twins)

Key Subtractions

Luke Voit, 1B (traded to Padres)
Gio Urshela, 3B/SS (traded to Twins)
Gary Sanchez, C (traded to Twins)
Clint Frazier, OF (signed with Cubs)
Corey Kluber, SP (signed with Rays)
Andrew Heaney, SP (signed with Dodgers)

Players to Know (with 2022 ATC projected stats):

Aaron Judge, OF: .276 AVG, .537 SLG, 38 HRs, 97 Runs, 98 RBIs, 5 SBs
Gerrit Cole, SP: 15 wins, 3.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 33.1 K%

Apr 1, 2022; Lakeland, Florida, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning during spring training at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Boston Red Sox

Key Additions

Trevor Story, SS (3/20, agreed to six-year contract)
Jake Diekman, RP (3/13, agreed to two-year contract)
Rich Hill, SP (12/1, agreed to one-year contract)
James Paxton, SP (12/1, agreed to one-year contract)
Jackie Bradley Jr, OF (12/1, acquired from Brewers)

Key Subtractions

Hunter Renfroe, OF (traded to Brewers)
Eduardo Rodriguez (signed with Tigers)
Kyle Schwarber (signed with Phillies)

Players to Know (with 2022 ATC projected stats):

Rafael Devers, 3B: .281 AVG, .547 SLG, 38 HRs, 101 Runs, 105 RBI, 5 SBs
Chris Sale, SP (out til May): 7 Wins, 3.51 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 29.3 K%

Oct 20, 2021; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) watches the ball after hitting a single against the Houston Astros during the fifth inning of game five of the 2021 ALCS at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

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Tampa Bay Rays

Key Additions

Luke Raley, 1B/OF (3/18, acquired from Dodgers)
Jason Adam, RP (3/17, agreed to one-year contract)
Corey Kluber, SP (11/28, agreed to one-year contract)

Key Subtractions

Joey Wendle, INF (traded to Marlins)
Jordan Luplow, OF (traded to Diamondbacks)
David Robertson, RP (signed with Cubs)
Collin McHugh, RP (signed with Braves)

Players to Know (with 2022 ATC projected stats):

Wander Franco, SS: .291 AVG, .471 SLG, 18 HRs, 89 Runs, 80 RBI, 8 SBs
Shane McClanahan, SP: 11 Wins, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 26.8 K%

Oct 2, 2021; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco (5) at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Orioles

Key Additions

Chris Owings, UTIL (3/15, signed to minor league contract)
Robinson Chirinos, C (3/12, signed to one-year contract)
Rougned Odor, 2B (11/30, signed to one-year contract)

Key Subtractions

Cole Sulser, RP (traded to Marlins)
Tanner Scott, RP (traded to Marlins)

Players to Know (with 2022 ATC projected stats):

Trey Mancini, 1B: .263 AVG, .451 SLG, 25 HRs, 77 Runs, 75 RBI, 1 SB
John Means, SP: 9 Wins, 4.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 22 K%

Apr 2, 2022; Lakeland, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Trey Mancini (16) looks on during the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers during spring training at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

AL East Best Bets

PICK: Rafael Devers, Most Home Runs (+2500)

WHY: Devers is projected for 38 HRs by ATC, which is only three behind Vladimir Guerror Jr. and two behind Matt Olson and Pete Alonso; however, his odds really stand out from the others: Guerrero (+700), Olson (+1500), Alonso (+950). Last year, Devers finished 10th in major league baseball with 38 home runs and has seen a steady increase in HR/FB ratio since his first full season in 2018. Obviously, the odds tell us this is a long-shot pick, so we wouldn’t be throwing lots of money on it, but it’s certainly an interesting hail mary play.

PICK: Yankees to miss the playoff (+310)

WHY: This is simply all about the quality of competition in the AL East. There is a real argument to be made that the perennial powerhouses in New York and Boston are likely to finish behind Toronto and Tampa Bay this year. Despite the Red Sox having a better 2021 season than the Yankees, their odds to make the 2022 postseason are lower and a bet on them to miss would be just +100. Meanwhile, this is a Yankees team that has a ton of rotation questions after Gerrit Cole and has a lineup that features many players who have long injury track records (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hucks, Anthony Rizzo). If all of those bats stay healthy, the Yankees can certainly do damage; however, there is an easy path to seeing how the pitching could be subpar, and one or two of these hitters get injured, and the Yankees simply fall behind some upstart teams in the AL like their two division rivals plus teams like the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers for the Wild Card spots.