We’ve got a doozy tonight; a jam-packed eleven-game slate of NBA action. Let’s not waste any time and dive into the schedule, odds, and top picks for Wednesday, March 30, 2022.
NBA Odds and Schedule, March 30
Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: DEN -9.5
- Nuggets last 10: 5-5
- Nuggets ATS: 35-41 (21st)
- Pacers last 10: 3-7
- Pacers ATS: 31-41-4 (23rd)
- Over/Under: 233.5
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the Nuggets’ last five games have gone over this 234 point total, but only one of the Pacers’ last five has.
- The pick: Monte Morris over 4.5 assists
- Why?: This is a risky play because the betting public is heavily on the under. However, Morris has hit this prop in five of his last ten and three of his last five. The two misses in his last five games are games where he finished with four assists, so he’s been competitive with this line in eight of his last ten games. The Pacers are also 15th in the NBA in assists allowed, so I think this game poses the opportunity for the Nuggets to add to their 27.6 average assists per game. I know Jokic is usually the center point of that, but with the Pacers struggling of late, perhaps he sees more time on the bench, which allows Morris to have the ball more.
Dallas Mavericks @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: DAL -2
- Mavericks last 10: 7-3
- Mavericks ATS: 42-32-2 (4th)
- Cavs last 10: 4-6
- Cavs ATS: 38-31-6 (9th)
- Over/Under: 214
- Over/Under Trends: Four of the Mavericks’ last five games have gone under this 213 total as they tend to play a slower path. Meanwhile, only two of the Cavs’ last five games have gone under this total; however, those have been their last two games.
- The pick: Caris LeVert under 3.5 assists
- Why?: LeVert has only hit this total in four of his last ten and one of his last five games. That one time was a game against a poor Magic defense where LeVert was also just 4-15 from the field, which led to him dishing more. The Mavericks are also 7th-best in the NBA in assists allowed, so I think it’ll be harder for LeVert to hit the over, even if Rajon Rondo misses this game.
For more NBA odds today and news, visit TailgateSports.com
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: WAS -3
- Magic last 10: 4-6
- Magic ATS: 35-41 (22nd)
- Wizards last 10: 3-7
- Wizards ATS: 29-44-2 (29th)
- Over/Under: 219
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the last five Magic games have gone under this 219 total, while four of the Wizards’ last five games have also gone under this total. Yet, seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams have gone over the projected total.
- The pick: Tomas Satoransku over 5.5 assists
- Why?: Satoransky has really been trending up with his distributing of late, covering this prop in four of his last six and each of his last three. He also had 10 assists last game, so he’s moving in the right direction for sure. The Magic are also tied for 20th, giving up 23.6 assists per game, so I think that Satoransky can continue his strong role as a facilitator and beat this prop.
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m ET
- Spread: BOS -4.5
- Heat last 10: 4-6
- Heat ATS: 41-34-1 (10th)
- Celtics last 10: 8-2
- Celtics ATS: 40-34-2 (11th)
- Over/Under: 213.5
- Over/Under Trends: Four of the Heat’s last five games have gone over this 213.5 point total, while all of the Celtics’ last five games have gone over this total. In fact, each of the Celtics’ last six games have gone over as they’ve won six of their last seven.
- The pick: Over 213.5 points
- Why?: For the reasons mentioned above.
Charlotte Hornets @New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: CHA -3
- Hornets last 10: 7-3
- Hornets ATS: 41-33-2 (8th)
- Knicks last 10: 6-4
- Knicks ATS: 36-40 (19th)
- Over/Under: 223
- Over/Under Trends: Just one of the Hornets’ last five games has gone over this 223 point total. Meanwhile, three of the Knicks ‘ last five have gone over, even though they failed to top this in each of their last two games.
- The pick: LaMelo Ball over 6.5 assists
- Why?: This feels like a bit of a letdown spot for the Knicks after their win earlier this week, especially with all the drama off the court surrounding Julius Randle allegedly asking for a trade. On the season, the Knicks have played solid defense, but they’re 11th in the NBA in assists allowed, which is actually their worst category. Ball has gone over this total in seven of his last ten games and has often gone way over with nine or eleven assists in five of his last ten.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: TOR -3
- Wolves last 10: 6-4
- Wolves ATS: 42-33-1 (6th)
- Raptors last 10: 8-2
- Raptors ATS: 43-32 (6th)
- Over/Under: 228.5
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the Wolves’ last five games have gone over this 229.5 point total, but only two of the Raptors’ last five games have gone over.
- The pick: Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points
- Why?: The T’Wolves have been playing good basketball of late, but they can get a little lazy on the defensive end, ranking 21st in points allowed and also 23rd in rebounds allowed. I think this creates an opportunity for Siakam to get points both within the flow of the offense and also on second-chance points. He’s gone over this total in seven of his last ten games, including scoring 40 his last time out, so I’ll roll with the hot hand.
Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: SAC -2.5
- Kings last 10: 3-7
- Kings ATS: 35-39-2 (20th)
- Rockets last 10:3-7
- Rockets ATS: 32-43-1 (24th)
- Over/Under: 230
- Over/Under Trends: Four of the Kings’ last five games have gone over this 230 point total, but just one of the Rockets’ last five games has gone over.
- Pick: Trey Lyles under 14.5 points
- Why?: I think this line is a bit inflated because the Rockets are dead last in the NBA in points allowed. Lyles has only scored over 14 points once in the entire month of March, despite playing 26.5 minutes per game. In fact, Lyles has been consistently playing 30+ minutes the last week or so and has been consistently under 14 points, except when he scored 19 in a blowout loss to the Celtics when he shot 3-5 from three. He’s just not a dynamic scorer, so I think this line is a bit too high.
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: ATL -13
- Hawks last 10: 7-3
- Hawks ATS: 32-43 (25th)
- Thunder last 10: 2-8
- Thunder ATS: 46-25-4 (2nd)
- Over/Under: 230
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the Hawk’s last five games have gone over this 230 point total. Similarly, three of the Thunder’s last five games have also gone over this total. Yet, ten of the Thunder’s last eleven home games have gone over the point total at the time.
- Pick: Thunder +13
- Why?: Look, the Thunder may not be a great time, but they are really good against the spread, as their record above indicates. Even with their injuries, they’ve actually covered the spread in each of their last seven games. A lot of that has to do with teams playing their bench against the Thunder at the end of games, and some of that also has to do with the Thunder running out a bunch of young guys that are playing for their NBA careers. What matters is that 13 points is a lot in an NBA game, and the Thunder have consistently shown they can cover those big spreads.
Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Spread: MEM -5
- Grizzlies last 10: 9-1
- Grizzlies ATS: 49-26-1 (1st)
- Spurs last 10: 6-4
- Spurs ATS: 36-37-2 (15th)
- Over/Under: 234.5
- Over/Under Trends: These are both teams that tend to play slower-paced basketball with efficient offensive systems. As a result, four of the Grizzlies last five games have gone under this 233 point total, while four of the Spurs’ last five have also gone under this total. Additionally, each of the last four games between these two teams has gone under the point total at the time.
- Pick: Under 233 points
- Why?: All of the above. Plus, the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in points allowed, while the Spurs are 8th-best in the league in points allowed. It’s all trending towards the under.
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 10:00 p.m. ET
Watch on ESPN
- Spread: PHO -4
- Suns last 10: 9-1
- Suns ATS: 42-33 (5th)
- Warriors last 10: 4-6
- Warriors ATS: 36-36-4 (14th)
- Over/Under: 222.5
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the Suns’ last five games have gone over this 222.5 point total, and, similarly, three of the Warriors’ last five games have also gone over this total. Each of the Suns’ last six games against Western Conference opponents have gone over the point total.
- Pick: Deandre Ayton over 16.5 points
- Why?: The Warriors have a really strong defense, but if there’s one place where they can be beaten, it’s on the inside. Ayton has scored over 18 points in each of his last three games against the Warriors and has hit this over in seven of his last ten games. I think the Suns will play through him inside more tonight, and he’ll hit this over.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: NO -14
- Pelicans last 10: 5-5
- Pelicans ATS: 38-36-1 (13th)
- Blazers last 10: 2-8
- Blazers ATS: 29-45-1 (30th)
- Over/Under: 225.5
- Over/Under Trends: These are two struggling offenses, so it makes sense that four of the Pelicans’ last five games have gone under 225.5 points, while three of the Blazers’ last five games have also gone under this total. The Blazers have lost eight of their last nine games, and the Pelicans’ point total has been under in five of their last six games.
- Pick: TBD (check back later)
- Why?: Props have not yet been released
NBA prop stats courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here.