With the MLB season a month old, it’s time to get in on the 2022 World Series odds to see if we can identify any futures bets that pique our interest.
(these odds will update in real-time)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+450)
We obviously have to mention the Dodgers, who remain the odds-on favorite to win the world series thanks to their lineup filled with All-Stars. As of May 5th, the Dodgers are 16-7 and in front of the NL West. That’s while their offense sits in the top-five in runs per game but not atop the heap like many predicted.
However, the Dodgers have an MLB-leading 2.21 team ERA and the early health of Clayton Kershaw is a major boost for their chances. If the Dodgers can go into the playoffs with a rotation of Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and any of Andrew Heaney, Tony Gonsolin, or Dustin May, it would be a deadly pairing with their lineup.
Obviously, Vegas thinks this as well, which is why you’re not getting tremendous odds on this bet.
New York Yankees (+850)
These are pretty good odds for the team with the best record in baseball. The Yankees trail only the Dodgers with a 2.60 staff ERA, led by a dynamic bullpen that has seen arms like Michael King and Clay Holmes emerge as legitimate threats. The Yankees have also gotten strong starts from Nestor Cortes, Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Montgomery, so if even two of those starting pitchers can remain strong, this staff will be a good one.
That’s crucial since we know this lineup has thump. The Yankees led baseball on May 5th with 35 home runs and 120 total runs scored. This team can score runs in bunches, which will always make them a tough out.
Yet, the most important thing this lineup is doing is not striking out. The Yankees have a 22.8% strikeout rate as a team, which is 15th in baseball, exactly middle of the pack. While that may not seem great, the Yankees ranked 25th in baseball last year with a 24.5% strikeout rate, so cutting back on that is a huge component of making sure their offense is consistent enough to take home the title.
As it stands now, the Yankees might not have the rotation to win it all; however, we know they are not afraid to make a move. If this team gets a pitcher like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas at the deadline, you’ll see these 2022 World Series odds change in a hurry.
Houston Astros (+1100)
The Astros made the World Series last year and brought back essentially the same team with the exception of shortstop Carlos Correa. Now, Correa is certainly an important loss, but rookie Jeremy Peña has looked pretty good in his stead, and the Astros are off to a 15-11 start.
The team is also without Lance McCullers for the beginning of the season as he rehabs a forearm injury, but they welcomed back ace Justin Verlander this season. The veteran is off to an impressive start, pitching to a 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 26.3% strikeout rate in his first five starts. That more than makes up for the loss of McCullers, especially since the team expects McCullers to be back for the second half of the season.
With the pitching seemingly settled (provided closer Ryan Pressly remains healthy), the Astros will just need to find a little more offense, as they currently rank 20th in runs scored per game, 13th in team slugging percentage, and 23rd in on-base percentage. That’s not all just down to the loss of Carlos Correa. Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve will need to start heating up a bit, but this is a team that has tons of talent and could easily find the pieces falling into place over the summer for a deep playoff run.
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Atlanta Braves (+1500)
We also have to mention the defending World Series champions because the odds for them have fallen so low after their 12-15 start to the season. They recently got Ronald Acuña Jr back at the start of May and new addition Matt Olson has started off well, hitting .283 with three home runs, 13 runs, and 11 RBI in his first 27 games in Atlanta.
While the Braves’ offense overall has been streaky to start the season, Acuña will settle in, they’ll get Eddie Rosario back after his eye surgery, and notoriously streaky hitter Adam Duvall will find a hot stretch. The team’s offense should be fine at the end of the day.
However, the pitching may be a legitimate concern. Starting pitchers Huascar Ynoa and Charlie Morton have looked awful to start the season, and Ynoa was demoted to Triple-A. Kyle Wright has emerged to fill his space, but the Braves are likely one starting pitcher away from having a championship-caliber rotation even if Charlie Morton figures it out. If it doesn’t, they’re going to need to find a few impact arms if they want a serious chance to repeat.
Chicago White Sox (+1600)
Coming into the season, the White Sox had odds around +700 to win the 2022 World Series, so this is a major drop-off for them. However, that’s to be expected when you have hitters like Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Vaughn on the IL alongside your ace starting pitcher Lance Lynn. This White Sox team has been decimated, which is a big reason why they’ve started 11-13.
However, there is no denying the talent on this team. Yoan Moncada should be back soon, and Andrew Vaughn will likely follow a week or so behind him. The weather has also been especially cold this year in Chicago, which has helped to limit offense (along with the awful, mushy MLB baseball). When the White Sox get healthy, I believe this offense will hit enough to make a run in the playoffs.
The question will be whether or not they can pitch well enough. Dylan Cease’s breakout seems legit, and Michael Kopech has looked good as a starting pitcher. When Lance Lynn comes back to join them and Lucas Giolito, this has the makings of a strong top four in the rotation, which is really all you need in the playoffs. Considering the rest of the division is not overly strong, I think the White Sox have a real shot to make the playoffs and do some damage if they can get fully healthy for the end of the season.
Los Angeles Angels (+2500)
We’ve been waiting for years for Mike Trout to be on a legitimately good team, and it might finally be happening as the Angels are 17-10 with the 2nd-best record in the AL. Their lineup with Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon, and Taylor Ward has been a top-5 run-scoring unit so far this season and there’s potential for more if they can continue to see growth out of prospects Jo Adell and/or Brandon Marsh.
The big question for the Angels, as it always is, will be their starting pitching. Noah Syndergaard has come back and limited damage in his starts, but he is not missing as many bats as he did when he was with the Mets and just doesn’t look as explosive. Same for Michael Lorenzen, who has moved into the rotation and found success but is giving up a lot of contact, which could mean regression is coming.
The Angels will likely need to see major growth from one or both of their young lefties – Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers – to give them another reliable arm at the top of the rotation with Ohtani. However, this is another team that could benefit from a trade for a starting pitcher. Given what these odds to win the 2022 World Series are now and how strong this offense is, placing a bet on the Angels and hoping they make a deadline move for a starter like Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, or Nathan Eovaldi.