After hitting 72% of our MLB bets last week, we’re off to a slower start this week at just 12-11 through the first two days, but we’ll try to crank it back up again today.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 4

Arizona Diamondbacks (12-13) @ Miami Marlins (12-11), 12:40 p.m. ET

These are two offenses that lack real punch. Miami has been a hot-and-cold offense all year and ranks 17th in baseball with 3.96 runs scored per game, while Arizona has been consistently bad, despite their performance in this series, ranking 25th with 3.32 runs per game. The Marlins feature a solid bullpen with a 3.06 mark, but Arizona has been near the bottom of the league with a 4.51 bullpen ERA.

ARI Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 1.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.87 K/9)
MIA Starting Pitcher: Elieser Hernandez (2-1, 5.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.85 K/9)
The Pick:

Atlanta Braves (11-15) @ New York Mets (18-8), 1:10 p.m. ET

The Mets’ bats have been hot all year, ranking 8th with 4.54 runs per game; meanwhile, the Braves have been – surprisingly – fairly mediocre, ranking 21st with 3.77 runs per game. The Mets have had fairly solid bullpen performance and have a 3.48 ERA while the Braves have a slightly better 3.23 rate.

ATL Starting Pitcher: Ian Anderson (2-1, 4.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.91 K/9)
NYM Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 8.68 K/9)
The Pick:

Pittsburgh Pirates (9-13) @ Detroit Tigers (7-14), 1:10 p.m. ET

Game 1 of a doubleheader

Unlike the game above, these are two poor offensive teams. Detroit ranks 27th in baseball with 3.19 runs per game, while Pittsburgh comes in at 3.64 runs per game, good for 23rd in the league. The Tigers have had the best bullpen performance in the league to start the year, with a 1.97 ERA, which is much better than Pittsburgh’s 4.22 mark.

PIT Starting Pitcher: Dillon Peters (3-0, o.00 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 6.08 K/9 as a reliever)
DET Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.60 K/9)
The Pick:

San Diego Padres (15-8) @ Cleveland Guardians (10-12), 1:10 p.m. ET

Game 1 of a doubleheader

The Padres’ bats have been heating up a bit, ranking 4th with 4.74 runs per game; meanwhile, the Guardians are not far behind at 6th with 4.59 runs per game. These have been two under-performing bullpens with the Padres pitching to a 3.97 mark and the Guardians having a 3.70 rate.

SD Starting Pitcher: Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K/9 in 2020)
CLE Starting Pitcher: Zach Plesac (1-2, 3.80 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 5.06 K/9)
The Pick: Pass
WHY?: We haven’t seen Clevinger pitch in two years. We have no idea what version of him we’re going to get, which makes it incredibly hard to place any money on this game. It could just go in so many different directions.

St. Louis Cardinals (13-10) @ Kansas City Royals (8-14), 1:10 p.m. ET

The Royals exploded last night but are struggling on offense on the year, ranking 28th with 3.18 runs scored per game, while St. Louis has also been scuffling of late, scoring just 1.00 run per game over their last three and 3.96 runs per game on the season, good for a tie for 17th in the league. Despite St. Louis imploding a bit last night, these bullpens remain on opposite ends of the early-season results spectrum as Kansas City has posted a 4.71 bullpen ERA and St. Louis has a 3.29 rate.

STL Starting Pitcher: Adam Wainwright (2-3, 4.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.67 K/9)
KC Starting Pitcher: Kris Bubic (0-2, 10.50 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 6.00 K/9)
The Pick:

Seattle Mariners (12-12) @ Houston Astros (13-11), 2:10 p.m. ET

The Mariners have yet to score a run in this series and now rank 13th in baseball with 4.25 runs per game, yet the Astros continue to struggle to score, totaling 3.71 runs per game and ranking 22nd in the league. These are two solid bullpens with Houston pitching to a 2.84 mark and Seattle coming in with a 3.08 bullpen ERA.

SEA Starting Pitcher: Matt Brash (1-2, 6.88 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 8.47 K/9)
HOU Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander (2-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 9.69 K/9)
The Pick:

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, April 16, 2022, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Tampa Bay Rays (14-10) @ Oakland Athletics (10-14), 3:37 p.m. ET

The Rays’ offense had a rough week but rebounded last night and now rank 10th in baseball with 4.42 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Athletics have started to fall down the rankings, scoring just 3.83 runs per game and ranking 19th in the league. The Oakland bullpen was hit hard last night and now registers a 3.41 bullpen ERA while the Rays have a 2.87 rate.

TB Starting Pitcher: Corey Kluber (1-1, 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.84 K/9)
OAK Starting Pitcher: Frankie Montas (2-2, 4.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.40 K/9)
The Pick:

Pittsburgh Pirates (9-13) @ Detroit Tigers (7-14), 4:40 p.m. ET

Game 2 of a doubleheader

These are two poor offensive teams. Detroit ranks 27th in baseball with 3.19 runs per game, while Pittsburgh comes in at 3.64 runs per game, good for 23rd in the league. The Tigers have had the best bullpen performance in the league to start the year, with a 1.97 ERA, which is much better than Pittsburgh’s 4.22 mark.

PIT Starting Pitcher: Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.05 K/9)
DET Starting Pitcher: Alex Faedo (2-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 11.49 K/9 in the minors)
The Pick:

San Diego Padres (15-8) @ Cleveland Guardians (10-12), 4:40 p.m. ET

Game 2 of a doubleheader

SD Starting Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (2-0, 1.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.74 K/9)
CLE Starting Pitcher: Cal Quantrill (1-1, 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.09 K/9)
The Pick:

Texas Rangers (9-14) @ Philadelphia Phillies (11-13), 6:45 p.m. ET

These two offenses are both starting to swing the bats pretty well of late. The Rangers are tied for 9th in the league with 4.43 runs per game, while the Phillies rank 7th with 4.58 runs per game. However, these bullpens are both performing pretty poorly to start the year with the Rangers coming in with a 3.79 bullpen ERA and the Phillies having a 3.90 mark.

TEX Starting Pitcher: Martin Perez (0-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.86 K/9)
PHI Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler (1-3, 5.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.68 K/9)
The Pick:

Philadelphia Phillies’ Zack Wheeler pitches during the second inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Thursday, April 28, 2022, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

Minnesota Twins (15-9) @ Baltimore Orioles (8-16), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Twins are starting to get hot, scoring 6 runs per game over their last three and 4.29 runs per game on the season, good for 12th. Unfortunately, Baltimore is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 29th with 3.08 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens despite Baltimore’s hot start, as Minnesota has a 3.48 bullpen ERA and Baltimore carries a 3.96 rate.

MIN Starting Pitcher: Dylan Bundy (3-1, 2.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8.02 K/9)
BAL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Bradish (2-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 10.20 K/9 in minors)
The Pick:

New York Yankees (18-6) @ Toronto Blue Jays (15-10), 7:07 p.m. ET

While the reputation of these two teams is that both have high-powered offenses, only the Yankees have consistently played to that reputation so far. New York ranks 1st in baseball with 4.92 runs per game, while Toronto comes in at just 3.80 runs per game, 20th in the league. The Yankees have also had a far better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 2.40 ERA to Toronto’s 4.15 mark.

NYY Starting Pitcher: Nestor Cortes (1-0, 1.31 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 12.19 K/9)
TOR Starting Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 5.52 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 7.98 K/9)
The Pick:

Los Angeles Angels (15-10) @ Boston Red Sox (10-14), 7:10 p.m. ET

Even after the Red Sox shut out win last night, these offenses are going in opposite directions. The Angels are scoring 4.40 runs per game, good for 11th in the league, while Boston is scoring just 3.54 runs per game, ranking 24th. The Red Sox have surprisingly had a better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 3.55 ERA compared to the Angels’ 3.80 mark.

LAA Starting Pitcher: Reid Detmers (1-1, 5.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.31 K/9)
BOS Starting Pitcher: Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 0.54 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10.80 K/9)
The Pick:

Chicago White Sox (10-13) @ Chicago Cubs (9-14), 7:40 p.m. ET

Surprisingly, it’s the Cubs that have been the better Chicago offense to start the year. The Cubs rank 14th in baseball with 4.22 runs per game, while the White Sox come in at just 3.26 runs per game, good for 26th in the league. The Cubs have also had a slightly better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 3.27 ERA to the White Sox’s 3.59 mark.

CHW Starting Pitcher: Lucas Giolito (0-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 14.14 K/9)
CHC Starting Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (1-2, 5.47 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.66 K/9)
The Pick:

Lucas Giolito injury White Sox — Lucas Giolito/homas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

For all of our MLB Betting Guides and News, click here

Cincinnati Reds (3-20) @ Milwaukee Brewers (16-8), 7:40 p.m. ET

The Reds have been an atrocious offense, ranking dead last in baseball with 3.04 runs per game, while the Brewers have been trending up, scoring 4.17 runs per game and ranking 16th in the league. These two bullpens are also on opposite ends of the performance spectrum, with the Reds pitching to a 4.37 bullpen ERA and the Brewers compiling a 3.05 mark.

- CIN Starting Pitcher: Vladimir Gutierrez (0-4, 7.41 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 5.82 K/9)
- MIL Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (0-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11.60 K/9)
- The Pick:

Washington Nationals (9-16) @ Colorado Rockies (13-10), 8:40 p.m. ET

The Rockies have benefited from a lot of home games early, ranking 5th in baseball with 4.61 runs per game, while Washington has been improving of late, ranking 15th with 4.20 runs per game. However, these bullpens have both been super hittable with the Rockies ranking dead last with a 4.85 bullpen ERA and the Nationals just slightly ahead with a 4.03 rate.

WAS Starting Pitcher: Patrick Corbin (0-4, 8.69 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 10.53 K/9)
COL Starting Pitcher: Austin Gomber (1-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.57 K/9)
The Pick:

San Francisco Giants (14-9) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (15-7), 10:10 p.m. ET

These are two of the best teams and offenses in the league. The Giants rank 2nd in baseball with 4.78 runs per game, while the Dodgers are right behind in 3rd with 4.77 runs per game. Both teams also have tremendous bullpens, with the Giants pitching to a 2.63 bullpen ERA and the Dodgers coming into the series with a 2.78 mark.

SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Wood (2-1, 4.19 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.84 K/9)
LAD Starting Pitcher: Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.88 K/9)
The Pick:

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Alex Wood delivers in the first inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Guardians, Sunday, April 17, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

NYY (F5 ML) + PHI (F5 ML) + MIL (F5 ML)

Odds: +263 so $10 pays out $36.39