It feels like something is shifting in the MLB run landscape. We’re starting to see scoring tick back up, and the results have gotten a little wonky. As a result, we’ve had a rough start this week with our MLB Betting picks, going just 19-25 this week.

It’s important to remember that your betting results will go through ebbs and flows. Not only should you never bet more than you’re comfortable losing, but you need to know when to take your foot off the gas and bet on less than you might normally.

Remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 12

New York Mets (21-11) @ Washington Nationals (11-21), 1:05 p.m. ET

Washington has been picking it up of late and now ranks 13th with 4.22 runs per game. The Mets have been one of the better teams in baseball, ranking 8th with 4.47 runs scored per game. Both teams have middle-of-the-road bullpens, with the Mets pitching to a 3.24 rate, and the Nationals compiling a 4.05 bullpen ERA.

NYM Starting Pitcher: Taijuan Walker (0-0, 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.73 K/9)
WAS Starting Pitcher: Joan Adon (1-5, 6.99 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 10.58 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Oakland Athletics (13-19) @ Detroit Tigers (9-22), 1:10 p.m. ET

These are two fairly poor offenses with Oakland ranking 27th in baseball with 3.47 runs per game and the Tigers ranking dead last with 2.74 runs per game. The Tigers have had one of the best bullpens in baseball to start the season, earning a 2.71 ERA, while the Athletics have a solid 3.26 bullpen ERA.

OAK Starting Pitcher: James Kaprielian (0-2, 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 10.57 K/9)
DET Starting Pitcher: Beau Brieske (0-2, 4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5.40 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Baltimore Orioles (13-18) @ St. Louis Cardinals (17-13), 1:15 p.m. ET

The Orioles have been a poor offense, ranking 26th in baseball with 3.48 runs per game, while the Cardinals are scoring 4.47 runs per game on the season, which ranks 9th in the league. The Cardinals’ bullpen continues to be one of the better units in the league, with a 3.06 ERA, while the Orioles have a 3.52 mark.

(*Keegan Akin will operate as a bulk reliever for the Orioles)

BAL Starting Pitcher: Keegan Akin (0-0, 1.96 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 6.38 K/9 as a reliever)
STL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Hicks (1-2, 3.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.72 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Jordan Hicks delivers a pitch in MLB action — May 1, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jordan Hicks (12) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Want to learn more about betting on MLB? Read our MLB Betting Resource Guide

Houston Astros (19-11) @ Minnesota Twins (18-12), 3:30 p.m. ET

The Astros have not gotten it together on offense so far this year, ranking 22nd with 3.83 runs per game, while Minnesota has been hurt by injuries and ranks 20th with 3.90 runs per game. Both teams have had fairly solid bullpens this season with Twins having a 2.91 bullpen ERA and the Astros carrying the league’s second-best bullpen ERA at 2.58.

HOU Starting Pitcher: Luis Garcia (2-1, 3.45 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 8.79 K/9)
MIN Starting Pitcher: Josh Winder (2-0, 1.61 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 8.06 K/9)
MLB Best Bet: Under 8.5
WHY?: Sorry, our game tile is a bit finicky here with there being a suspended game between these teams and then this one. Winder has been pretty good for the Twins, and our model has this coming in at 5.02 total runs, so I love playing the under on 8.5. Neither offense has really put up big numbers yet too.

Cincinnati Reds (7-24) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (13-17), 6:35 p.m. ET

The Reds have climbed out of the basement and now rank tied for 14th with 4.13 runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23rd with 3.77 runs scored per game. Both bullpens are fairly weak with the Reds posting a league-worst 5.26 mark and the Pirates near the bottom with a 4.34 mark.

CIN Starting Pitcher: Connor Overton (0-0, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 5.91 K/9 in two starts)
PIT Starting Pitcher: JT Brubaker (0-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.66 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Kansas City Royals (10-18) @ Texas Rangers (12-17), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Royals have been another bad offense, ranking 29th in baseball with 3.25 runs per game, while the Rangers rank 17th in baseball with 4.03 runs scored per game on the season. The Royals’ bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.38 ERA, while the Rangers have a 3.66 mark.

KC Starting Pitcher: Jon Heasley (1-0, 4.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.25 K/9 in minors)
TEX Starting Pitcher: Taylor Hearn (1-2, 6.53 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 10.45 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

New York Yankees (22-8) @ Chicago White Sox (15-14), 8:10 p.m. ET

The White Sox have started slowly as an offense due to injuries, scoring 3.52 runs per game on the season, which is 25th in the league, while the Yankees are up to 6th in baseball with 4.50 runs scored per game. The Yankees have had the best bullpen performance in baseball with a 2.38 bullpen ERA, while the White Sox have been inconsistent and have a 3.45 rate.

NYY Starting Pitcher: Luis Gil (0-3, 9.53 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 13.24 K/9 in minors)
CHW Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease (3-1, 2.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.44 K/9)
MLB Best Bet: Pass
WHY: Luis Gil has been pretty awful in Triple-A this year, so I want to bet on Chicago with Cease on the mound, but we’ve seen flashes from Gil before, and this White Sox offense is nowhere close to the Yankees right now. As a result, I’ll just pass.

Philadelphia Phillies (14-17) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (20-9), 10:10 p.m. ET

These are two top-ten offenses with the Phillies ranked 7th in baseball at 4.48 runs scored per game, and the Dodgers ranked 1st with 5.14 runs scored per game, even after losing two of three to the Pirates. These bullpens are on opposite ends of the spectrum, with the Phillies pitching to a 4.11 bullpen ERA and the Dodgers putting up a 2.94 rate.

PHI Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler (1-3, 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.54 K/9)
LAD Starting Pitcher: Tyler Anderson (3-0, 2.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.74 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Zack Wheeler delivers a pitch in MLB action — Philadelphia Phillies’ Zack Wheeler pitches during the second inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Thursday, April 28, 2022, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

NYM/WAS (F5 Over 4.5 Runs) + HOU/MIN (F5 Under 4.5 Runs) + CHW (F5 ML)

Odds: +457 so $10 wins $55.75