It feels like something is shifting in the MLB run landscape. We’re starting to see scoring tick back up, and the results have gotten a little wonky. As a result, we’ve had a rough start this week with our MLB Betting picks, going just 19-25 this week.

It’s important to remember that your betting results will go through ebbs and flows. Not only should you never bet more than you’re comfortable losing, but you need to know when to take your foot off the gas and bet on less than you might normally.

Remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 13

Cincinnati Reds (8-24) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (13-18), 6:35 p.m. ET

The Reds have climbed out of the basement and now rank 14th with 4.13 runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23rd with 3.65 runs scored per game. Both bullpens are fairly weak with the Reds posting a league-worst 5.16 mark and the Pirates near the bottom with a 4.34 mark.

CIN Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle (1-4, 6.46 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 9.39 K/9)
PIT Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller (0-4, 6.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 7.71 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Milwaukee Brewers (20-12) @ Miami Marlins (14-17), 6:40 p.m. ET

The Brewers’ offense is one of the hottest in baseball, ranking 4th with 4.97 runs scored per game, while Miami has also been surging of late, ranking 13th with 4.13 runs scored per game. The Miami bullpen has been surprisingly better to start the year, pitching to a 3.35 bullpen ERA, while Milwaukee has a 3.92 mark.

MIL Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes (1-2, 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 11.64 K/9)
MIA Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez (4-1, 1.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.75 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Houston Astros (21-11) @ Washington Nationals (11-21), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Astros have not gotten it together on offense so far this year, aside from their one-game outburst against the Twins, ranking tied for 16th with 4.09 runs per game, while Washington has been picking it up of late and now ranks 15th with 4.12 runs per game. The Astros have the best bullpen in baseball, currently, pitching to a 2.43 rate, while the Nationals have compiled a 3.96 bullpen ERA.

HOU Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez (1-2, 3.34 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.24 K/9)
WAS Starting Pitcher: Josiah Gray (4-2, 3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.77 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Baltimore Orioles (14-18) @ Detroit Tigers (9-23), 7:10 p.m. ET

These are two poor offenses with Baltimore ranking 27th in baseball with 3.47 runs per game and the Tigers ranking dead last with 2.75 runs per game. The Tigers have had one of the best bullpens in baseball to start the season, earning a 2.79 ERA, while the Orioles have a solid 3.48 bullpen ERA.

BAL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Lyles (2-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.02 K/9)
DET Starting Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez (0-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.72 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Seattle Mariners (14-18) @ New York Mets (22-11), 7:10 p.m. ET

The Mets have been one of the better teams in baseball, ranking 8th with 4.45 runs scored per game. while the Mariners have cooled of late and are scoring 3.91 runs per game on the season, which ranks 20th in the league. These two bullpens have been fairly solid with the Mariners registering a 3.68 ERA, while the Mets have a 3.27 mark.

SEA Starting Pitcher: Marco Gonzales (1-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 6.04 K/9)
NYM Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (4-1, 2.92 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.92 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Toronto Blue Jays (17-15) @ Tampa Bay Rays (19-13), 7:10 p.m. ET

Toronto continues to underperform our expectations on offense, ranking 21st in baseball with 3.84 runs per game, while the Rays are scoring 4.28 runs per game on the season, which ranks tied for 11th in the league. The Rays’ bullpen has been relatively average, with a 3.52 ERA, while the Blue Jays have been inconsistent and are registering a 4.22 mark.

TOR Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman (3-1, 2.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.89 K/9)
TB Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 2.89 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.36 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Kevin Gausman delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action — Apr 26, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego Padres (20-12) @ Atlanta Braves (15-17), 7:20 p.m. ET

These are two offenses with potential but inconsistent results as the Padres rank tied for 11th with 4.28 runs per game, while the Braves are scoring 4.09 runs per game on the season, which ranks tied for 16th in the league. The Braves’ bullpen has been solid, with a 3.29 ERA, while the Padres have a 4.10 mark.

SD Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish (3-1, 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.56 K/9)
ATL Starting Pitcher: Max Fried (4-2, 2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 8.51 K/9)
MLB Best Bet: Pass
WHY?: I advise passing on this one just because nothing is jumping out. We don’t really know what version of Darvish we’re going to get, which makes it tough to bet on an O/U that’s so low at 7. The Braves are also favored, but if we get good Darvish then that would flip quickly. I’m just going to avoid it since I don’t have a good feel for which way it will go.

Boston Red Sox (11-20) @ Texas Rangers (13-17), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Red Sox have been another bad offense, ranking 28th in baseball with 3.45 runs per game, while the Rangers rank 1tied for 18h in baseball with 4.00 runs scored per game on the season. The Red Sox’s bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.14 ERA, while the Rangers have a 3.62 mark.

BOS Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta (0-4, 6.08 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 9.79 K/9)
TEX Starting Pitcher: Dane Dunning (1-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.72 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Want to learn more about betting on MLB? Read our MLB Betting Resource Guide

Cleveland Guardians (15-15) @ Minnesota Twins (18-14), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Guardians continue to swing hot bats, ranking 6th with 4.83 runs per game, while Minnesota has been hurt by injuries and ranks 22nd with 3.75 runs per game. Both teams have had fairly strong bullpens this season with Twins having a 3.13 bullpen ERA and the Guardians carrying a 3.21 mark.

CLE Starting Pitcher: Aaron Civale (1-2, 9.45 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9.90 K/9)
MIN Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray (0-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.45 K/9)
MLB Best Bet: Pass
WHY?: Cleveland is in the middle of a COVID outbreak. We just found out that Josh Naylor is on the COVID-IL, and I can’t be sure of the health of the rest of the team. That makes me want to lean towards the Twins and Sonny Gray, but they simply haven’t hit recently. As a result, I’ll just stay away.

New York Yankees (23-8) @ Chicago White Sox (15-15), 8:10 p.m. ET

The White Sox have started slowly as an offense due to injuries, scoring 3.63 runs per game on the season, which is 24th in the league, while the Yankees are up to 5th in baseball with 4.84 runs scored per game. The Yankees have had the best bullpen performance in baseball with a 2.51 bullpen ERA, while the White Sox have been inconsistent and have a 3.96 rate.

NYY Starting Pitcher: Gerrit Cole (2-0, 2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.98 K/9)
CHW Starting Pitcher: Vince Velasquez (2-2, 3.97 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.34 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Gerrit Cole delivers a pitch in 2022 MLB action — Apr 8, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) pitches the ball against Boston Red Sox during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports

San Francisco Giants (19-12) @ St. Louis Cardinals (17-14), 8:15 p.m. ET

These are two top-ten offenses with the Giants ranking 2nd in baseball with 5.00 runs per game, while the Cardinals are scoring 4.39 runs per game on the season, which ranks 9th in the league. The Cardinals’ bullpen continues to be one of the better units in the league, with a 3.00 ERA, while the Orioles have a 3.48 mark.

SF Starting Pitcher: Logan Webb (4-1, 3.82 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.88 K/9)
STL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Hicks (1-2, 3.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.72 K/9)
MLB Best Bet: Pass
WHY?: I just can’t trust Jordan Hicks as a starter yet. He seems to get tired in the 4th inning of each of his recent outings. St. Louis hasn’t been hitting well of late and didn’t look particularly strong against the Orioles, so I’d lean San Francisco here, but I don’t like it enough to risk putting money on it.

Kansas City Royals (10-19) @ Colorado Rockies (16-15), 8:40 p.m. ET

The Royals have been poor on offense, scoring 3.17 runs per game on the season, which is 29th in the league, while the Rockies are scoring 4.29 runs per game, which ranks 10th in baseball. These are two of the worst bullpens in the league with the Royals registering a 4.06 ERA and the Rockies putting up a 5.01 rate.

KC Starting Pitcher: Zack Greinke (0-2, 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.67 K/9)
COL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (1-3, 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.31 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Los Angeles Angels (21-12) @ Oakland Athletics (14-19), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Angels are one of the best lineups in baseball, scoring 4.97 runs per game on the season, which is 3rd in the league, while the Athletics are down to 26th in baseball with 3.52 runs scored per game. These are two solid but not spectacular bullpens with the Athletics registering a 3.23 bullpen ERA and the Angels putting up a 3.49 rate.

LAA Starting Pitcher: Chase Silseth (2-0, 1.73 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 12.81 K/9 in minors)
OAK Starting Pitcher: Daulton Jefferies (1-5, 5.22 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 5.83 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Chicago Cubs (11-19) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (17-15), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Cubs have really cooled down lately and are now scoring 4.00 runs per game on the season, which is tied for 18th in the league, while the Diamondbacks have been consistently poor and are 25th in baseball with 3.63 runs scored per game. The Cubs have had a fairly average bullpen performance with a 3.46 bullpen ERA, while the Diamondbacks have been bad and have a 4.97 bullpen ERA.

CHC Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly (1-3, 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.46 K/9)
ARI Starting Pitcher: Zach Davies (1-1, 3.34 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.67 K/9)
MLB Best Bet: Pass
WHY?: The O/U has risen to 9 as the day went on, and that’s just too high for me to go over with these two lineups. However, I don’t want to go under with these arms on the mound, so then it comes down to a ML bet, and I simply don’t feel comfortable enough with either starting pitcher to know who will win. On our podcast today, John Laghezza mentioned taking the Diamondbacks team over in the first five innings, so I think that might be the way I go.

Philadelphia Phillies (15-17) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (20-10), 10:10 p.m. ET

These are two top-ten offenses with the Phillies ranked 7th in baseball at 4.63 runs scored per game, and the Dodgers ranked 1st with 5.20 runs scored per game, even after losing two of three to the Pirates. These bullpens are on opposite ends of the spectrum, with the Phillies pitching to a 4.29 bullpen ERA and the Dodgers putting up a 3.03 rate.

PHI Starting Pitcher: Kyle Gibson (3-1, 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.75 K/9)
LAD Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler (4-1, 1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.85 K/9)
MLB Best Bet:

Apr 8, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler (21) throws the ball in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

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F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

BAL (+0.5 F5) + TOR/TB (Under 3.5 F5) + ARI (Over 2.5 runs F5)

Odds: +617 so $10 wins $71.75