We went just 30-34-1 last week with our MLB bets and while that’s clearly not where we want to be, it’s important to realize that baseball is an extremely long season, and there will be ebbs and flows. Offense will pick up and cool down. The overs will hit and then the unders will get hot, so we can’t be discouraged by one week but always need to be evaluating our process.

Remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 16

Detroit Tigers (12-23) @ Tampa Bay Rays (21-14), 6:40 p.m. ET

The Tigers have now plummeted into the basement, ranking dead last in baseball with 2.86 runs scored per game, while Tampa Bay sits tied for 13th with 4.17 runs scored per game. Both bullpens are fairly solid with the Rays posting a 3.52 mark and the Tigers near the top of the league with a 2.73 mark.

DET Starting Pitcher: Alex Faedo (0-4, 3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.20 K/9)
TB Starting Pitcher: Corey Kluber (1-2, 4.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.19 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

Washington Nationals (12-24) @ Miami Marlins (15-19), 6:40 p.m. ET

Washington has been picking it up of late and now ranks 15th with 4.17 runs per game, while Miami rode a mid-week hot stretch and now ranks 16th with 4.15 runs scored per game. The Miami bullpen has been surprisingly better to start the year, pitching to a 3.43 bullpen ERA, while the Nationals have compiled a 3.90 bullpen ERA.

WAS Starting Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 7.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 4.74 K/9)
MIA Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (2-2, 2.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.80 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

New York Yankees (25-9) @ Baltimore Orioles (14-21), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Yankees have been one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking 5th with 4.91 runs scored per game, while the Orioles have been on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 29th with 3.26 runs per game. The Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball, currently, pitching to a 2.50 rate, while the Orioles have a strong 3.40 bullpen ERA.

NYY Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino (2-0, 4.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.73 K/9)
BAL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Bradish (1-1, 4.24 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.47 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino reacts after striking out Detroit Tigers’ Tucker Barnhart in the fourth inning of a baseball game in Detroit, Wednesday, April 20, 2022. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Seattle Mariners (16-19) @ Toronto Blue Jays (18-17), 7:07 p.m. ET

Toronto continues to underperform our expectations on offense, ranking 22nd in baseball with 3.71 runs per game, while the Mariners have cooled off of late and are scoring 3.97 runs per game on the season, which ranks 18th in the league. These two bullpens have been fairly average with the Mariners registering a 3.69 ERA, while the Blue Jays have a 4.05 mark.

SEA Starting Pitcher: Chris Flexen (1-5, 4.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.52 K/9)
TOR Starting Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.35 K/9)
MLB Free Pick: Mariners (+0.5 Runs F5)
WHY?: Vegas seems to think the Blue Jays have an advantage with the starting pitching, but I’m not so sure about that. Kikuchi looked better in this last two starts, but he still has command issues had has essentially the same underlying numbers as Flexen. Seattle has also been about as good on offense as Toronto has (actually slightly better), so I think getting a half a run here is pretty solid when our model has the Mariners favorited by 0.04 runs after five innings.

Houston Astros (23-12) @ Boston Red Sox (13-21), 7:10 p.m. ET

These two offenses, which met in the ALCS last year, started off the year slowly, but Houston has been trending up of late and now ranks 12th with 4.31 runs scored per game. Even though Boston averaged 6.33 runs per game in their last series, they still rank 23rd in baseball with 3.71 runs scored per game. The Astros bullpen has been one of the best in baseball with a 2.69 bullpen ERA, while the Red Sox have struggled to a 4.27 mark.

HOU Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 5.74 K/9)
BOS Starting Pitcher: Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 2.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 12.41 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

St. Louis Cardinals (19-15) @ New York Mets (23-13), 7:10 p.m. ET

The Mets offense has now dropped out of the top ten, ranking 11th with 4.44 runs scored per game, while St. Louis sits in 9th with 4.62 runs scored per game. The Mets’ bullpen has been relatively average, with a 3.59 ERA, while the Cardinals have been stronger and are registering a 3.38 mark.

STL Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (3-1, 1.49 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 6.59 K/9)
NYM Starting Pitcher: Trevor Williams (0-2, 5.73 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 7.36 K/9)
MLB Free Pick: Pass
WHY?: There are thunderstorms moving through New York tonight, so this game could be delayed or postponed or even delayed in the middle of the action. There are just too many variables to want to bet on something ahead of time. However, if the weather clears and things look good as we get close to first pitch, I think an F5 bet on the Cardinals against Williams could be the way to go.

Atlanta Braves (16-19) @ Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

The Brewers’ offense has been strong for the last few weeks, now ranking 6th in baseball with 4.89 runs scored per game, while the Braves are scoring 4.17 runs per game on the season, which ranks tied for 13th in the league. The Braves bullpen has been average, with a 3.64 ERA, while the Brewers struggled to a 3.85 mark.

ATL Starting Pitcher: Ian Anderson (3-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.60 K/9)
MIL Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (2-1, 4.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 11.93 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

Apr 10, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) delivers the baseball in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

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Pittsburgh Pirates (15-19) @ Chicago Cubs (13-20), 7:40 p.m. ET

These are two bottom-third offenses with the Cubs ranking 20th in baseball with 3.94 runs per game, while the Pirates rank 27th in baseball with 3.50 runs scored per game on the season. The Pirates’ bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.31 ERA, while the Cubs have been fairly strong and currently sport a 3.32 mark.

(* Bryse Wilson will follow Dillon Peters, who will act as the opener)

PIT Starting Pitcher: Bryse Wilson (0-2, 5.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.31 K/9)
CHC Starting Pitcher: Wade Miley (0-0, 9.00 ERA, 3.33 WHIP, 3.00 K/9 in one start)
MLB Free Pick:

Los Angeles Angels (24-13) @ Texas Rangers (14-19), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Angels continue to swing hot bats, ranking 3rd with 4.92 runs per game, while Texas has been inconsistent this year and ranks 19th with 3.97 runs per game. Both teams have had middle-of-the-road bullpens this season with the Angels pitching to a 3.45 bullpen ERA and the Rangers carrying a 3.58 mark.

LAA Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (3-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.64 K/9)
TEX Starting Pitcher: Jon Gray (0-1, 5.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.27 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

Chicago White Sox (16-17) @ Kansas City Royals (12-20), 8:10 p.m. ET

The White Sox have started slowly as an offense due to injuries, scoring 3.55 runs per game on the season, which is 25th in the league, while the Royals have been boosted by a series in Coors Field, which saw them score 8.67 runs per game. They now rank 24th in baseball with 3.69 runs scored per game. Both of these teams have also seen their formerly elite bullpens fall on hard times, with the White Sox pitching to a 4.10 ERA and the Royals coming in at 4.31

CHW Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto (7-7, 4.08 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.69 K/9 in 2021)
KC Starting Pitcher: Brad Keller (1-3, 2.70 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 5.40 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

San Francisco Giants (20-14) @ Colorado Rockies (17-17), 8:40 p.m. ET

These are two top-ten offenses with the Giants ranking 2nd in baseball with 4.97 runs per game, while the Rockies are scoring 4.71 runs per game, which ranks 8th in baseball. The Giants’ bullpen continues to be hit-or-miss with a 3.68 ERA, and the Rockies are putting up a league-worst 5.18 rate.

SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Wood (3-2, 3.60 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
COL Starting Pitcher: Antonio Senzatela (2-2, 4.88 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 2.60 K/9)
MLB Free Pick: Pass

Minnesota Twins (20-15) @ Oakland Athletics (15-22), 9:40 p.m. ET

These are two mediocre lineups with the Twins scoring 3.91 runs per game on the season, which is 21st in the league, while the Athletics are down to 28th in baseball with 3.30 runs scored per game. These are two solid bullpens with the Athletics registering a 3.13 bullpen ERA and the Twins putting up a 3.16 rate.

MIN Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer (0-1, 4.42 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 8.87 K/9)
OAK Starting Pitcher: Zach Logue (2-1, 1.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

Arizona Diamondbacks (18-17) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (21-12), 10:10 p.m. ET

The Dodgers remain the best offense in baseball, scoring 5.27 runs per game on the season, while the Diamondbacks have been consistently poor and are 26th in baseball with 3.54 runs scored per game. These two bullpens are also at opposite ends of the spectrum, with the Dodgers pitching to a 3.14 rate while the Diamondbacks have been bad and have a 4.87 bullpen ERA.

ARI Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 5.93 K/9)
LAD Starting Pitcher: Tony Gonsolin (3-0, 1.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.67 K/9)
MLB Free Pick:

Apr 29, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

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F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

DET/TB (Under 4 runs F5) + SEA (+0.5 runs F5) + PIT/CHC (Over 4.5 runs F5)

Odds: +554 so $10 wins $65.43