MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: April 27

Orioles Yankees Baseball
New York Yankees’ Anthony Rizzo follows through for a two-run home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday, April 26, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Well, we went 10-4 last night on our MLB bets and are sitting pretty so far to start the week.

We’re still seeing some weird early-season results, so it might take another week or two for a lot of the stats we want to use truly begin to stabilize, but below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, April 27


New York Mets (14-5) @ St. Louis Cardinals (9-7), 1:15 p.m. ET

The Mets are off to a hot start and rank 6th with 4.68 runs scored per game, while the Cardinals’ slow start in this series has dropped them a bit farther behind, ranking 18th with 3.88 runs per game. The Cardinals have had one of the best bullpen performances to start the year with a 2.52 bullpen ERA while the Mets have a 3.29 rate.

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.00 K/9)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Steen Matz (2-1, 5.27 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.00 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: Carrasco has pitched really well to start the year, but Matz is a total wildcard, so I can’t really get behind the O/U here. I think the Mets are more likely to win than not, but I also feel in my gut that the Cardinals won’t get swept here. I don’t want to bet just based on a gut feeling, but I also don’t want to bet against my gut feeling, so I’m just going to pass on a game that I don’t really have a strong feel for.


Kansas City Royals (6-9) @ Chicago White Sox (6-10), 2:10 p.m. ET

We bet the over last night against two poor starting pitchers, and these offenses still just could not get anything going. The Royals rank 26th in baseball with 3.27 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the White Sox have been severely impacted by injuries and are scoring just 3.13 runs per game, 27th in the league. Both teams have had under-performing bullpens so far given that they were meant to be strengths on the team. The Royals have a 3.92 bullpen ERA while Chicago has a 3.98 rate and a potentially injured Liam Hendriks.

  • KC Starting Pitcher: Zack Greinke (0-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease (2-1, 3.38 ERA, 2.83 WHIP, 7.50 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Los Angeles Dodgers (12-5) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (7-11), 3:40 p.m. ET

Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks actually pulled out the win last night. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers have been the best offense to start the year, ranking 1st in baseball with 5.24 runs per game, while Arizona has been on the total opposite end of the spectrum, ranking 29th with 3.00 runs per game. These teams have also seen diametrically opposed performances out of their bullpens with the Dodgers having a 2.22 bullpen ERA and the Diamondbacks registering a 4.06 rate.

  • LAD Starting Pitcher: Julio Urias (1-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.54 K/9)
  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.91 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Milwaukee Brewers (11-7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (8-9), 6:35 p.m. ET

These are two of the bottom third offenses in baseball in the early going, but both have seen a little boost thanks to last night’s offensive explosion. The Pirates are 19th in baseball with 3.82 runs scored per game, while Milwaukee has disappointed early on, scoring just 3.78 runs per game, good for 20th in MLB. Milwaukee has seen their bullpen stumble a bit to a 3.41 ERA, while the Pirates have a poor 4.23 bullpen rate.

  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Aaron Ashby (0-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.98 K/9 in 2021)
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Bryse Wilson (0-0, 6.35 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 10.38 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


San Diego Padres (11-7) @ Cincinnati Reds (3-14), 6:40 p.m. ET

Even after scoring six runs last night, the Reds are currently the worst offense in baseball with 2.88 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Padres are middle of the pack. scoring 4.22 runs per game and ranking 13th in the league. Despite success in years past, these are two mediocre bullpens to start the year, with the Padres registering a 3.80 ERA and the Reds compiling a 3.77 rate.

  • SD Starting Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (1-0, 1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 9.95 K/9)
  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Vladimir Gutierrez (0-3, 5.54 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.68 K/9)
  • The Pick:


Seattle Mariners (11-6) @ Tampa Bay Rays (9-8), 6:40 p.m. ET

Seattle’s offense has been strong despite not having Mitch Haniger, ranking tied for 3rd in baseball with 5.00 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Rays are just outside the top-10 scoring 4.41 runs per game and ranking 11th in the league. The Mariners have weathered the storm of a few key bullpen injuries and have a 3.09 bullpen ERA while the Rays have started to settle in and have a 2.93 rate.

  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Marco Gonzales (1-1, 3.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
  • TB Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (0-1, 5.25 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 11.70 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Colorado Rockies (10-7) @ Philadelphia Phillies (8-10), 6:45 p.m. ET

The Rockies have cooled a bit away from home, ranking tied for 9th in baseball with 4.47 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Phillies have started to heat up a bit, scoring 4.56 runs per game and ranking 8th in the league. The Rockies has come back to earth in the last week and now have a league-worst 4.61 bullpen ERA while Philadelphia has been bad all year and has a 4.41 rate, which is second-worst in the league.

  • COL Starting Pitcher: Ryan Feltner (0-0, 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.75 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez (1-0, 4.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.90 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Baltimore Orioles (6-11) @ New York Yankees (11-6), 7:05 p.m. ET

Both of these offenses certainly came alive last night, combining to score almost 20 runs. On the season, the Orioles have still had a rough start the year, ranking 28th in baseball with 3.06 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Yankees are showing signs of life and are now scoring 4.12 runs per game and ranking 14th in the league. Both of these bullpens have been elite to start the year, with the Yankees registering a 2.84 bullpen ERA but Baltimore has started to come back to earth and now has a 3.32 rate.

  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Tyler Wells (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 7.04 K/9)
  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (0-1, 2.51 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.69 K/9)
  • The Pick: 



Miami Marlins (8-8) @ Washington Nationals (6-13), 7:05 p.m. ET

Miami ranks 15th in baseball with 4.00 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Nationals have been a bit worse, ranking 25th in the league with 3.37 runs per game. The Marlins have a solid 3.32 bullpen ERA while Nationals have been fairly average to start the year and have a 3.94 rate.

  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez (2-0, 0.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.98 K/9)
  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Erick Fedde (1-1, 6.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11.30 K/9)
  • The Pick: 



Boston Red Sox (7-11) @ Toronto Blue Jays (12-6), 7:07 p.m. ET

Boston had the win in hand last night, but their bullpen just blew it. They have been struggling to start the year and rank 22nd in baseball with 3.61 runs scored per game, while Toronto is in a tie for 12th with 4.33 runs per game. Both bullpens had been relatively strong to start the year with the Blue Jays having a 3.00 bullpen ERA, but we mentioned that the Red Sox are starting to show cracks and now have a 3.62 rate.

    • BOS Starting Pitcher: Michael Wacha (1-0, 1.88 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, 7.71 K/9)
    • TOR Starting Pitcher: Ross Stripling (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.61 K/9
    • The Pick: Pass
    • WHY?: The model wants us to bet the under on this because of Wacha’s recent run of success, but he’s not missing many bats, and I feel like he’s walking a tight rope that I want no part of. The Red Sox almost won last night and have lost two of their last four games on walk-offs, so I feel like they’re going to break through at some point, which just muddies these waters.


Chicago Cubs (7-10) @ Atlanta Braves (8-10), 7:20 p.m. ET

The Cubs’ offense struggled to mount much of a threat last night, and I do think some of their early success is boosted by their series in Colorado and that one massive game against Pittsburgh. Still, they rank 3rd in baseball with 5.00 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Braves are middle of the pack, scoring just 3.94 runs per game and ranking tied for 16th in the league. The Cubs are, shockingly, the team with the better-performing bullpen so far with a 2.47 bullpen ERA while the Braves have hit-and-miss in the early part of the year and have a 4.19 rate.

  • CHC Starting Pitcher: Mark Leiter Jr. (0-1, 11.05 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 7.94 K/9)
  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Charlie Morton (1-2, 6.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.50 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Detroit Tigers (6-10) @ Minnesota Twins (9-8), 7:40 p.m. ET

What a way to lose a game. I mean, I don’t think I’ve seen an ending that poorly in years, and I coach a 12U travel baseball team. Tonight is another matchup between these two mediocre lineups. The Tigers rank 24th in baseball with 3.56 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Twins rank 21st in the league with 3.71 runs scored per game. The Tigers have had some of the best relief performances to start the year and have a 2.22 bullpen ERA while the Twins have been poor to start the year and have a 4.22 rate.

  • DET Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.90 K/9)
  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan (2-1, 1.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.00 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


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Houston Astros (8-9) @ Texas Rangers (6-11), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Astros won last night, but they continue to struggle to do damage on offense and made Taylor Hearn look like a damn good pitcher. On the year, Houston ranks 23rd with 3.59 runs scored per game, while Texas has seen their free-agent signings pay off, ranking 7th with 4.59 runs per game. The Texas pitching staff has been another story but their bullpen has been improving of late, pitching to a 4.11 ERA, while Houston has a bullpen ERA of 3.00.

  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00 ERA in 3 relief appearances)
  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Glenn Otto (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 11.81 K/9 in one start)
  • The Pick: 

Cleveland Guardians (7-10) @ Los Angeles Angels (11-7), 9:38 p.m. ET

Cleveland has cooled a bit of late, ranking tied for 9th in baseball with 4.47 runs per game, while the Angels are surging with 4.78 runs per game, good for 5th in the league. The Angels continue to struggle with their bullpen and now have a 4.19 bullpen ERA while Cleveland has compiled a 3.50 rate.

  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Zach Plesac (1-1, 1.53 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani (1-2, 4.40 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 8.68 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: Because of Plesac’s early success and Ohtani’s average results on the mound, the model is showing that the Indians will win this game by two runs. The issue is that I think Plesac is pitching over his head and that Ohtani could easily shut down Cleveland. Vegas seems to think so too given the odds they’ve set, but since I haven’t actually seen those results play out yet, and Cleveland is still performing really well as a team, I’m just going to pass.


Oakland Athletics (9-9) @ San Francisco Giants (13-5), 9:45 p.m. ET

Like their rivals, the Giants have also been one of the best offenses to start the year, ranking 2nd in baseball with 5.06 runs per game, while Oakland has been a surprise, ranking tied for 16th with 3.94 runs per game despite trading away their best hitters. This is how you know it’s still early. These teams have gotten strong performances out of their bullpens with the Giants having a league-leading 1.70 bullpen ERA and the A’s registering a 3.21 rate.

  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Paul Blackburn (2-0, 1.80 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 5.28 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Jakob Junis (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 15.35 K/9 in 5 innings)
  • The Pick: 

Parlay of the Day

Season Record: 3-8 (Since our guideline is a minimum of +500 odds, these will always be longer shots)

LAD/ARI (Under 8) + MIA (ML) + DET/MIN (Under 7)

Odds: +538 so $10 would pay out $63.82

Staff Picks

Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games: