MLB

MLB Odds Today, Schedule, Picks, Props: April 7

MLB: Cubs-Play for Opening Day
Apr 5, 2022; Chicago, IL, USA; Fans were able to bat during batting practice at Wrigley Field during the “Play for Opening Day” event. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

It’s MLB Opening Day! About a month ago we weren’t sure that we were going to get here, but we are about to get a full-day slate of baseball and it feels wonderful. Below we’ll take you through today’s entire schedule, the betting odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some stats and picks that we think should help you not only prepare to enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

MLB Odds and Schedule, April 7

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: MIL -1.5
  • MIL Moneyline: -170
  • CHI Moneyline: +150
  • Over/Under: 11
  • MIL last 10: N/A
  • CHI last 10: N/A
  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes (11 Wins, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 12.61 K/9, 5.9 IPS in 2021)
  • CHI Starting Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (14 Wins, 4.77 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.51 K/9, 5.7 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: Brewers F5 Moneyline (-175)
  • Why?: A lot of people have touched on the F5 bets in baseball, and I agree that they are some of the better bets you can find. The F5 bet is basically just a bet on where we’ll stand after the first five innings. We can bet on the Moneyline or a separate over/under, so there are a few ways to go. When we have a reliable starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes, attacking the F5 bet makes sense because we can bank on Burnes’ ability to keep the Cubs’ bats at bay without having to worry about what will happen when the Brewers’ bullpen comes in, especially on Opening Day, when we can’t be 100% sure how effective each additional arm that pitches will be.

 

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: CLE -1.5
  • CLE Moneyline: -125
  • KC Moneyline: +105
  • Over/Under: 8
  • CLE last 10: N/A
  • KC last 10: N/A
  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber (7 Wins, 3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12.48 K/9, 6.1 IPS in 2021)
  • KC Starting Pitcher: Zack Greinke (11 Wins, 4.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.32 K/9, 5.89 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: Cleveland Over 3.5 Runs (-130)
  • Why?: I kind of think this Cleveland team is feisty. With Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes anchoring their lineup, they’re not the pushovers that people seem to be making them out to be. However, I also think this Kansas City team has a few intriguing bats (Bobby Witt Jr.) and Hunter Dozier has looked great this spring, so I’m not yet ready to say we’re going to get the old Shane Bieber out of the gate and he’ll shut them down. The Kansas City bullpen is pretty good, but I think Cleveland can get four runs off Greinke and the first arm or two out of the pen since this will likely be a short start for the veteran.

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:15 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: STL -1.5
  • PIT Moneyline: +155
  • STL Moneyline: -180
  • Over/Under: 8
  • PIT last 10: N/A
  • STL last 10: N/A
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: JT Brubaker (5 Wins, 5.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.34 K/9, 5.17 IPS in 2021)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Adam Wainwright (17 Wins, 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.59 K/9, 6.44 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: Cardinals ML (-180)
  • Why?: We’re not going too risky here, but there aren’t any other avenues I feel super comfortable with today. The Cardinals are an elite defensive team with a pretty solid lineup, so we should feel good about their chances against an average to below-average starting pitcher like Brubaker. This Pirates team has a few hitters I like, and Adam Wainwright was potentially pitching over his head last year, so I’m not ready to bet the under just yet. At the end of the day, I prefer the Cardinals’ lineup and bullpen by enough of a margin that we’ll just roll with the Moneyline.

 

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 7:05 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: NYM -1.5
  • NYM Moneyline: -120
  • WAS Moneyline: +100
  • Over/Under: 9 (-120)
  • NYM last 10: N/A
  • WAS last 10: N/A
  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill (4 Wins, 4.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.94 K/9, 4.95 IPS in 2021)
  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Patrick Corbin (9 Wins, 5.82 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 5.52 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: Over 9 runs
  • Why?: I know people are buying into a Patrick Corbin bounceback, but I’m just not one of them. He looked better during the spring, I guess, but not so much so that I think he’ll keep the Mets off the scoreboard. I am a fan of Tylor Megill, so even if he wasn’t the first choice to be the Opening Day starter, I think he gives the Mets a good chance to win this game. However, I’m a bit concerned early on by both bullpens, so given that plus the fact that Washington is a good hitter’s park, I’ll lean towards the over here.
Nov 2, 2021; Houston, TX, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried throws a pitch against the Houston Astros during the first inning in game six of the 2021 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves, 8:08 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: ATL -1.5
  • CIN Moneyline: +160
  • ATL Moneyline: -190
  • Over/Under: 8
  • CIN last 10: N/A
  • ATL last 10: N/A
  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle (13 Wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 5.45 IPS in 2021)
  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Max Fried (14 Wins, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.58 K/9, 5.9 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-115)
  • Why?: It’s important to keep in mind that Mahle is a completely different pitcher when he’s on the road. His splits are that drastic. In 2021, he pitched to a 5.63 ERA with a .270 average against and .511 slugging percentage allowed at home, but just a 2.30 ERA with a .204 average and .298 slugging percentage allowed on the road. Great American Ballpark is not a friendly place for him. Since this game will be played in Atlanta, I expect both Mahle and Fried to come out throwing well, which will keep the offenses at bay for the first few innings.

Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: LAA -1.5
  • HOU Moneyline: +105
  • LAA Moneyline: -125
  • Over/Under: 9
  • HOU last 10: N/A
  • LAA last 10: N/A
  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez (11 Wins, 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.35 K/9, 6.1 IPS in 2021)
  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani (9 Wins, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.77 K/9, 5.65 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: Astros Moneyline (+105)
  • Why?: I know Shohei Ohtani is great and we’re excited that this Angels team is healthy, but I’m just not sure I can get behind the Astros as the underdogs here. Yes, the lineup lost Carlos Correa, but Jeremy Pena is a pretty damn good prospect and a good defender at shortstop. The Astros should have a healthy Alex Bregman and still have Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and more in that lineup. We also have to remember that a lot of these early-season matchups will come down to a battle of bullpens since the short spring training didn’t allow starting pitchers to get fully built up. In that case, give me the Houston bats and their superior bullpen.

 

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

  • Run Line: SD -1.5
  • SD Moneyline: -145
  • ARI Moneyline: +125
  • Over/Under: 9
  • SD last 10: N/A
  • ARI last 10: N/A
  • SD Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish (11 Wins, 4.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.77 K/9, 5.53 IPS in 2021)
  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (7 Wins, 4.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.63 K/9, 5.62 IPS in 2021)
  • Bullpen ERAs: N/A
  • The pick: Padres Moneyline (-145)
  • Why?: I think we’re too quick to right off Yu Darvish. Yes, he struggled last year, but he still possesses elite raw stuff and has proven over his career that he will make adjustments in order to ensure he’s successful. I expect he spent all offseason working to correct the grip struggles that hurt him last year, and I think we’ll see a strong performance from the jump. The Diamondbacks are also without one of their better hitters in Josh Rojas, so even though Fernando Tatis Jr. is out, I still think this is a clearly superior Padres lineup that has a few intriguing arms in their bullpen.

For all daily betting information, make sure to visit DraftKings Sportsbook

Parlay of the Day

Houston (ML) + San Diego (ML) + NYM (F5 ML, which means NYM to be up after 5 innings)

Odds: +535 so $10 pays out $63.50

 

Mar 15, 2022; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish during spring training workouts at the San Diego Padres Spring Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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