MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: JT Brubaker (0-1, 9.82 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (0-0, 2.25 ERA)

Apr 17, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates right fielder Cole Tucker (3) reacts after defeating the Washington Nationals at PNC Park. The Pirates won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Ugh, hard to trust JT Brubaker in an over/under below 8, but opposite a pitcher the caliber of Corbin Burnes, it can still work.

Looking at Brubaker’s history against the Brewers makes this a worthwhile gamble. In four career meetings, he etched a modest 4.29 ERA. However, diving deeper into those outings reveals Brubaker has actually been quite good when facing this opponent. Milwaukee managed only a .215/.287/.456 slash line off the right-hander and perhaps most impressively, Brubaker amassed 26 K’s in 21 innings.

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What we’re seeking from the third-year pitcher is a spot where he won’t get walloped. Given his notable track record with the Brew Crew, we have to surmise there’s a lesser chance of that happening.

And the beauty of even having a crooked number charged to Brubaker’s name is that his counterpart is the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner and someone that can still keep ‘under’ backers in this with one of his trademark dominant showings. There’s been some of that already when Burnes sees the Bucs.

Since joining the rotation two years ago, Burnes has had four dates with the Pirates, pitching to a 2.78 ERA while garnering 30 strikeouts across 22.1 innings. Furthermore, he yielded only one homer.

As it is, Pittsburgh already has a tough time sending a ball into the outfield seats. Their six home runs so far ties for the third-lowest mark in the Major Leagues.

So, that means the unintimidating Buccos batting order is going to have to string together hits against Burnes if they’re going to plate any considerable amount of runs, which just doesn’t seem very likely.

The former Saint Mary’s Gael will have a little extra charge entering this turn, being his season debut at home. That can be significant considering it means this is his first start at Miller… err, American Family Field, since nabbing NL Cy Young honors.

Our eyes will be on Brubaker competing. If he can hang tough and continue his momentum from the improvements he showed last start, Burnes will do the rest.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “5-4-3,” +0.65 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Padres Under 7.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit