MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network
Probable pitchers: Dane Dunning (0-0, 5.19 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (1-0, 0.90 ERA)
Wow, very interesting line action on the total here. Put into perspective last night’s series opener that consisted of reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray taking on new Rangers ace Jon Gray and drawing an over/under of 8.
Gray, of course, may not be a legitimate ace but he’s still probably Texas’ best starter at this point in time. And Ray obviously is a great pitcher coming off a fantastic campaign. Yet this next matchup of two youngsters still proving themselves is seeing a total of 7.5 now in some places.
Clearly, the linesmakers are in agreement with my thinking that both Dunning and Gilbert are underrated at this early juncture in their respective careers. The latter is now starting to harness his high potential in his second year, composing a 0.90 ERA through two starts to go alongside a convincing 11-1 K/BB ratio.
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Two starts, yes. But Gilbert showed off a lot of polish as just a rookie last season despite what his final 4.68 ERA may say. The former first-round draft choice not only impressively limited hitters to a .241 average — which would have ranked him in the top 10 among AL starters had he pitched enough innings to qualify — he also strung together a pretty 128-28 K/BB ratio through his 119.1 innings of work.
There’s no question Gilbert is the real deal and that a breakout is imminent. Considering the opponent, his run could be more likely to continue given how he fared against the Rangers in 2021. Gilbert pitched strong into the sixth in all three meetings and had at least five K’s in each.
Dunning is a nice other half to have in this equation. Like his counterpart tonight, he, too, is better than what the stats suggest.
The 27-year-old clocked out of his first season with Texas carrying a 4.51 ERA. However, he also registered a 3.94 FIP, illustrating better performance than the overall numbers. He also had to deal with an absurdly unlucky .338 average on balls put in play against him, which can make it really difficult for any pitcher to succeed.
With what he could control — strikeouts — Dunning did a nice job averaging nearly one per inning for the season. Notably, the one double-digit punch-out game he’s had came in his lone start opposite the Mariners, whom he beat and struck out 10 times.
Dunning appears like he’s coming into his own if the K totals remain inflated. Even if not, there’s enough belief in him to at least spin a decent outing. Matched with the buzzsaw that is Gilbert, that’s all we need.
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “6-4-3,” +1.65 unit
Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Brewers Under 7.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit