MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: April 22, White Sox vs Twins

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Apr 10, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Michael Kopech (34) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Michael Kopech (0-0, 1.00 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (1-1, 3.27 ERA)

Apr 10, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (16) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

A potential future American League Central rivalry flashes as the billing in Minnesota tonight with these two bright young starting pitchers about to go at it.

Michael Kopech is the more known commodity after being the headline acquisition for the White Sox a handful of years ago in the Chris Sale blockbuster. He’s largely supported the hype with his flame-throwing talents converting a 12.24 K/9 strikeout rate across 92.2 MLB innings.

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True, the 25-year-old “only” has eight punch-outs through his first pair of starts but let’s remember that Kopech was making the transition from reliever back to full-time starter entering the campaign and you have to give him time to adjust and settle in. The rest of his results were desirable anyway, as Kopech has allowed only one run and seven total baserunners.

Kopech is undoubtedly one of the rising stars in the league and his quick beginning indicates that breakout in a starting role is imminent. This matchup could be a favorable one, too, given the Twins have only seen the right-hander for a total of seven innings in his three seasons in the Majors (additionally, he missed two years due to Tommy John).

If you’re seeing the electric Kopech for the first time or if you’ve barely faced him, it’s definitely a challenging experience and trying to get comfortable. Here, no Minnesota regular has logged more than three at-bats opposite Kopech lifetime.

Conversely, the White Sox have seen plenty of the starter they’ll be tasked to combat this evening, Bailey Ober. In the big 6-foot-9 righty’s freshman campaign last year, they met five times — by far more than any other opponent Ober faced — but the results were more or less mixed.

No matter, I really like how the Charleston product has looked thus far in 2022. Though he clocked out of his first start having yielded four runs in five innings, that was largely due to one poor frame, and he bounced back anyway his last time out when he impressively shut down the Red Sox for six innings without them plating an earned run. Batters hit only .205 off Ober in those two outings as well.

The former 12th-round draft pick exhibited a very encouraging second half his rookie season, notching a 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts. Two of those assignments came against Chicago and Ober was generally solid in both of those.

Like his counterpart, Ober is out to a nice beginning and I believe that’s genuinely a result from building off the development he showed as his first season progressed.

Both starters passed their early tests. Look for them to keep it going while maintaining a lower-scoring game script.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “7-5-3,” +1.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Cubs Over 8.5 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit