MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 8.5

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Tylor Megill (2-0, 2.20 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 1.38 ERA)

Apr 7, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill (38) throws a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Well despite the presence of two surging starting pitchers and at least one lineup being mostly comprised of dead bats, the linesmakers have decided on the relatively inflated total of 8.5 for this series finale.

OK, we’ll gladly take that as the low scores keep pouring in. With Tylor Megill and Madison Bumgarner doing the pitching, there’s plenty of reasoning to believe this can be one of those such outings that have thus far been common.

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Bumgarner did look well past his prime for a lot of last year but he also had an extended stretch in which he looked like the Mad Bum of old. That’s exactly how he’s looked to begin his 2022 and I don’t see the relentless left-hander letting go.

In turn, that would point to another solid showing for the 32-year-old. Through three starts, Bumgarner has been stellar, yielding only two earned runs combined across 13 innings, including just one tater.

Hard contact by opponents has been limited, as Bumgarner is generating line drives as little as 16.7 percent of the time on balls put in play, according to Fangraphs. This is very notable because it would represent the lowest such mark of his career within a full season if it ended there. Obviously, three starts is a small sample size but still very telling if Bumgarner sits around that percentage.

Either way, the former World Series MVP will be facing a club that he’s enjoyed a lot of success against throughout the years, the Mets. In 11 career matchups (including 2016 National League Wild Card game), Bumgarner is 7-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while accumulating 8.88 K/9.

Yeah, we can feel good about the potential future Hall-of-Famer to at least churn out something useful for a total this high, especially while he’s rolling right now

Speaking of pitchers on a roll, that’s definitely a conversation that has to include Megill as well. The way he’s emerged in the absence of ace Jacob deGrom is rather commendable, and based on his demeanor and poise throughout his freshman campaign a year ago, this success is definitely no fluke.

Megill has pitched the Mets into the sixth or deeper in all three of his starts and did so in very convincing fashion based on that 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP he currently carries. The strikeouts are still there like they were last season and Megill has shackled batters to a .220 average, the 14th-best among qualified NL starters.

Look at the assignment he has today. Arizona has probably been the worst offense in the early going, and making matters more salivating, this is a Sunday day game, meaning the D-backs may be resting a regular or two in the batting order. Hopefully, hello to the ineffective bats of Geraldo Perdomo and Jose Herrera. That’s like two pitcher’s spots!

Based on his personality, Megill should be fired up for a turn opposite a legend like Bumgarner. Being unlikely to see either starter struggle, the under is the play.