MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Walker Buehler (1-1, 4.02 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly (1-0, 0.59 ERA)
When a pitcher establishes a lengthy track record of success against one team across a sizable sample size, bettors should always note that and possibly look to capitalize on such glaring tendencies.
Here, we have a good scenario for that. In his five seasons in the big leagues, Walker Buehler has made it a habit to tame the D-backs, and given their current state right now as the league’s lowest-scoring club, there has maybe never been a more delicious meeting for the Vandy product.
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Buehler has made 11 starts opposite Arizona and went 4-0 with a shiny 2.24 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He engineered this excellence in very convincing fashion, holding down the Diamondbacks bats to a microscopic .166/.233/.240 slash line.
He’s very consistent when seeing this division foe, too, clocking in to register a quality start in all but three of these assignments. Buehler also allowed more than two earned runs only twice as well.
Additionally, Arizona’s most formidable hitters — Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, David Peralta, Carson Kelly, Daulton Varsho and Pavin Smith — are collectively 18-for-86 (.209) lifetime off the former two-time NL All-Star. Just another quality start would be so valuable for a total of 8.5.
Another key in these bets is making sure you have a counterpart that won’t get tattooed while Buehler does his thing. Fortunately, we have the solid Merrill Kelly.
Not only has he been solid, the fourth-year right-hander is looking like the early candidate to be the D-backs’ lone representative in the All-Star Game when the time comes. Kelly has never made the Midsummer Classic but he’s exhibited this type of work before, like in the shortened 2020 season when he held a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP about halfway through before enduring a season-ending injury.
Kelly maybe won’t sustain the stellar numbers he’s posted thus far, but he is still capable of contributing similar performance. He’s crafting a career-best strikeout rate at the moment (10.57 K/9), and given that Kelly is throwing harder than ever, that’s definitely very notable when you consider he’s never averaged a strikeout per inning — not even in Korea.
In his previous dates with the hard-hitting Dodgers, Kelly has experienced mixed results but I think that can be mostly disregarded if this current version of the righty is the best that there’s been by far.
Given this relatively high over/under, Kelly will even have some room for error when you factor in the constant he’ll be squaring off with in Buehler. One of these starters tossing a gem is all that’s needed.
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “10-5-3,” +4.45 units
Yesterday’s Result: Mets-Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit