MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: April 28, Padres vs Reds

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Apr 7, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (30) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET

Probable pitchersNick Martinez (0-2, 4.30 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (1-2, 6.88 ERA)

Apr 22, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Nick Martinez (22) reacts after a play against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bettors can completely disregard that 6.88 ERA sitting next to the name of Tyler Mahle. He’s very clearly performing better.

Look no further than the right-hander’s 2.43 FIP, which is a staggering contrast from what the overall numbers may say.

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This metric measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based only on statistics that do not involve fielders, including home runs allowed, strikeouts, hit batters, walks, fly-ball percentage, ground-ball percentage, and line-drive percentage. A lot more often that not, this mark is truth.

So, we know a progression is going to come from Mahle much sooner than later. As it is, he’s already one of the more underrated starters in the league, so banking on him for an inevitable surge seems wise. Catching a downgraded Padres lineup off guard in an extra earlier (for them being on the east coast) travel-day afternoon game setting puts Mahle in a position to be successful in this meeting.

Then we have Nick Martinez, who has looked mostly good since returning to the Major Leagues after a few years in Japan.

At the very least, he definitely appears to be more consistent than he was during his last go-around in the states. While he’s registered an uncomfortably-high 1.77 WHIP, I don’t think that can possibly sustain, while his increased strikeouts can

When Martinez last pitched in the big leagues from 2014-17, he managed only a putrid 5.1 K/9. However, now he’s averaging 8 K/9 — albeit in three starts — but the inflated velocity and success he had before coming back leads me to believe that Martinez has reformed his skillset and can legitimately keep it going.

For this matchup, he draws the slumping Reds. Their 3-15 record is the worst in baseball and that only makes it extra tough for any offense if guys are pressing. Their lineup doesn’t scare anyone right now and Martinez can spin something that contributes to a lower-scoring affair.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “13-5-3,” +7.45 units

Yesterday’s Result: Dodgers-Diamondbacks Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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