MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles

Over/Under: 9

First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Zach Plesac (1-4, 4.93 ERA) vs. Dean Kremer (0-0, -.– ERA)

Wow, an over/under of 9 at Camden Yards. These days, that’s simply archaic.

The reason for that, of course, has everything to do with the left-field fence being pushed back a significant distance, not to mention the actual wall was slightly raised as well. Even hitters have commented on the new hard environment. In turn, games in Baltimore have suddenly been regularly drawing totals of well below the number for today’s series finale.

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Predictably, the O’s production as a club has deflated considerably when playing at their now-pitcher-friendlier ballpark, currently anchored in the bottom third of baseball in OPS (.666) and average (.230) at home. We’ll look to capitalize in the form of an underrated pitching matchup.

Let’s begin with the more unknown commodity in this affair, Dean Kremer, and the fact that this will be his season debut. Although he went 0-7 with an unsightly 7.55 ERA last year, this is someone that carries potential to stick.

He may not have fully showcased his strikeout potential in the Major Leagues but throughout several years in the minors, Kremer has crafted a strikeout rate of more than one K per inning. A reminder of that can be seen in his one Double-A and two Triple-A outings this season, in which he tallied 18 punch-outs across nine total innings — which were also scoreless and saw Kremer collectively yield only four base runners.

To me, that’s enough to believe he’s ready for The Show this time around and that the UNLV product warrants a shot in this spot in terms of an under bet. Additionally, Kremer wasn’t bad in his lone start against the then-Indians last year, either.

And then we have what is supposed to be the far steadier option in Zach Plesac. Maybe that hasn’t been on display in 2022 just yet but the promise is there.

While currently saddled with a 4.93 ERA after clocking out of last season with a 4.67 ERA, don’t forget how good Plesac was two years ago, albeit in only eight starts during the pandemic shortened campaign. But that 2.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and .191 batting average against was a more proper snapshot of what Plesac is fully capable of when he is at good health.

Remember that Plesac had a sub-4.00 ERA a season ago before getting injured at the end of May. One rough stretch is what skewed Plesac’s overall numbers.

In present day, the 27-year-old has been in the midst of a rocky pattern. Plesac got tagged for more than three runs in three straight assignments before registering a quality start to snap that run. After that, he endured a rare shellacking but bounced back last time out with another quality showing. He’ll pick off from there.

Be sure to place your wagers right away if possible. That aforementioned total of 9 is very unlikely to remain before first pitch.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “29-23-5,” +2.88 units

Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Royals Under 9.5 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit