MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: German Marquez (0-2, 6.92 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (1-0, 1.27 ERA)

Let’s partake in another Zac Gallen total.

The 26-year-old has showed off the part of a budding star basically since he first arrived in The Show four seasons ago — he even set the Major League record for most consecutive starts to begin a career for a pitcher yielding three runs or fewer. I think his consistency since then proves Gallen is a clear All-Star in the making.

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Well, when you have a genuine All-Star starter (the D-backs have a few of those actually) paired with a bumbling, un-intimidating offense, unders are always something to monitor and this particular matchup absolutely emits such signals.

There should be no question about Gallen continuing on his run today. He’s a man on a mission (as I wrote about entering his first start of the year) after a 2021 that was plagued by injury issues and constant bullpen meltdowns in his starts. That’s the main reason he was “4-10” last season.

Gallen is out to a 1-0 beginning through four starts while composing a shiny 1.27 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. Additionally, opposing batters have managed just a microscopic .149/.222/.189 slash line off the former third-round draft pick — with zero homers

Emphasis on that “zero homers” stat, which Gallen may be taking extra pride in after the player he was traded for when landing in Arizona — Jazz Chisholm Jr. — challenged and failed to take the right-hander yard in his last start. Gallen was notably amped after that victory when talking about how he approached Chisholm and proudly proclaimed, “Here, see what you could do with it… not much.”

I mean, with that type of confidence, Gallen is at the peak of his career at this moment. And now he gets a club that he’s actually seemingly enjoyed seeing in the past. In seven career meetings, Gallen holds a 2.48 ERA and 11.25 K/9, the latter of which being his best such mark among any opponent he’s seen more than twice.

Most notable, he’s also getting the Rockies outside of Colorado. Once again, this is an offense that is a lot more lukewarm in their games away from home, carrying a team batting average on the road (.230) that is more than 50 points less when playing at Coors Field (.281).

The gushing of Gallen will not cease. But of course, we also need something serviceable from the other starter to connect on an under here and I believe that will be the case with the inclusion of German Marquez. Despite what his current 6.92 ERA might say, remember that this was an All-Star only a year ago.

Firstly when it comes to a Marquez start is looking to see where the seven-year vet will be working. Fortunately on this day, it’s an assignment on the road, where Marquez has generally been better (3.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) than at Coors (4.82, 1.37)

Carrying an intriguing 3.60 xFIP, Marquez definitely hasn’t been as bad as the overall numbers may suggest. Arguably the biggest culprit in his slow trot out of the gate is the .360 batting average on balls put in play against him, but obviously, that bad luck can’t possibly be sustained. At least, not this afternoon opposite a usually-tame D-backs lineup.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “17-9-4,” +6.88 units

Yesterday’s Result: Brewers-Braves Under 7 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit