MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 1, Mariners vs Marlins

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Apr 14, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies in the second inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Logan Gilbert (3-0, 0.40 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 1.78 ERA)

Apr 26, 2022; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

For the second straight day, let’s attempt to capitalize on an apparent line error.

Again, the linesmakers are being a little too giddy in handing out totals of 7 more times than they should be right now while scoring and home runs remain down considerably. Making matters more puzzling, they’ve opted for one of those 7’s in this premium pitching matchup emanating from a pitcher-friendly park.

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I can’t gush enough about Sandy Alcantara, especially when he gets to work during the daytime. As I’ve written about (and won on) numerous times, this man is simply one of the best with the sun out.

In his career now, Alcantara has made 27 afternoon starts and compiled a 2.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in those outings. Putting this into perspective, that’s not at all far off from the career-best mark this time of the day in Major League history — 1.81 ERA — held by the elite Jacob deGrom.

It only helps that Alcantara is out to another strong start in 2022. Through four starts, he’s 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA, yielding two earned runs or fewer each time out. Although his strikeout numbers are notably down, I wouldn’t fret about this, as he’s still harnessing his fireball velocity. An increase should definitely be expected.

Meanwhile, his counterpart, Logan Gilbert, is having an even more impressive beginning to the campaign. The polish he exhibited as a rookie a year ago has quickly translated to significant success.

Gilbert enters his fifth start of the season at 3-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Yes, the former first-round draft pick has only had one earned run scored off him 22.1 total innings — which was a few weeks ago in his season debut.

There’s a lot to like about Gilbert as he continues progressing into his big-league career. We’re seemingly also getting the right-hander in his preferred setting. While it’s still not a huge sample size yet, there may be something to gather from Gilbert possessing an ERA that was almost two full runs lower in the afternoon (3.75) than at night (5.55) in his freshman MLB year.

Both starters are not only running hot, they’re also pitching within comfort zones and couldn’t be more confident. Opposite two of the weaker offenses in their respective leagues, runs will be scarce.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-128)

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “14-6-3,” +7.43 units

Yesterday’s Result: Guardians-Athletics Under 7 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit