MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 10, Phillies vs Mariners

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
May 5, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners starter Robbie Ray (38) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.38 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (2-3, 4.38 ERA)

Apr 8, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) looks on from the dugout during the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Oh no, linesmakers. Oh no. The callous disrespect of Robbie Ray is fairly obvious.

Just why does this matchup from one of baseball’s pitching-friendliest parks get one of those totals of 7? This is the reigning American League Cy Young involved opposite another legitimate ace.

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We’ll try to make the books pay for such a relatively egregious call given the other deflated lines being chucked around. In this lower-scoring environment thus far in 2022, here’s a meeting that should be given a tag of less than 7 more than most.

Ray may not be out to the strongest beginning but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t pitched well. In fact, that’s how he’s been able to pitch his new club into the sixth inning or deeper in each of his six starts.

As we highlighted prior to his last outing that resulted in a push, the left-hander’s strikeout rate is notably down from 11.54 K/9 last year to just 7.54 in the current campaign. However, he’s starting to creep that number back closer to normal and he’ll have a nice matchup to continue this.

Yes, the Phillies definitely sport one of the more dangerous lineups in the league. They also punch out a sizable amount, however, so when you’re bringing those glaring tendencies into a date with a strikeout artist, well, give the advantage to the pitcher. Ray should capitalize here.

No team in the NL struck out more times against left-handed pitchers a season ago than the Phils  — and that was while logging only the 11th most at-bats in the Majors. It’s been more of the same this year, as Philadelphia is going down via the K once every 3.4 ABs with a lefty throwing.

Even without his usual large batch of strikeouts each assignment, Ray has still been effective. Now he’s getting an opponent that can play to his main strengths, and unlocking that strikeout potential supplies Ray his old high ceiling.

Along with that, he’s facing a fellow top-of-the-rotation pitcher that always has the ability to shut down an opposing offense in any given start — Aaron Nola.

The former first-round pick endured a very underwhelming season last year on the surface when he finished 9-9 with a 4.63 ERA. Any deeper diving into the numbers, though, revealed that Nola was indeed far better than that final stat line. He registered a 1.13 WHIP and .237 batting average against, both very respectable numbers, while also stringing together a career-best 11.11 K/9. Nothing wrong there.

Additionally, Nola’s identical 3.37 FIP and 3.37 xFIP was clear evidence that he actually performed just fine contrary to that ERA he finished with for the season. Now, he has everything going right, entering tonight with a 3.38 ERA, and not only that, he impressively ranks in the top 15 among all qualified MLB starting pitchers in WHIP (0.87) and BAA (.197).

The strikeouts continue to be there as well. Notching 10.64 K/9, Nola is one just 10 starters in the bigs that is currently averaging double-digit strikeouts per nine.

Nola has always been a stud and he’s incandescently back to pitching like one. So, feel good about entrusting him against a slumping Mariners bunch that’s dropped 11 of 13 and only scored 2.5 runs per game within this span. As long as Ray holds his own, that’ll quiet the scoreboard.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “18-10-4,” +6.68 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rockies-Giants Under 7 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit