MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Bruce Zimmermann (2-1, 2.67 ERA) vs. Michael Pineda (1-2, 3.43 ERA)
Now just what are the linesmakers thinking here? A total of 8 for this bout?
For comparison sake, the Tigers just hosted the Athletics for a few games earlier this week and at least a couple of those featured an over/under of 7 — or even lower (Tarik Skubal vs. Frankie Montas on Tuesday). Yet in this matchup, from the same venue and a similarly lesser-dangerous offense in town to face Detroit, there is a perfectly-round 8 total.
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To the oddsmakers’ credit, a lot of books are offering 7.5, with others following suit. It’s worth a bet either way (though try to find 8 at other shops), as this is a meeting between two solid pitchers in their groove.
Bruce Zimmermann is doing more than just pitching “in a groove.” He’s been engineering a legitimate breakout campaign thus far — his second full one in the big leagues — entering today’s seventh start of the season with a 2.67 ERA. That’s actually nearly half the mark he finished with last year (5.04) and he’s been effective in doing so, stringing together a cool strikeout rate of 8.9 K/9.
The 27-year-old has been pretty consistent, too, yielding three earned runs or fewer in each of his assignments. A repeat performance in this spot would be just delightful given where the total sits.
Zimmermann will have the right opponent in efforts of continuing his success, about to tangle with a Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom third of baseball in team OPS (.645) against left-handers. In fact, they’ve cranked out only two homers — in more than 300 ABs opposite southpaws.
Well, the Oriole lefty has yielded only a single long ball collectively among his 30-plus innings, so if that helps us rule out any potential home-run onslaught, that puts any under wager in desirable shape.
I like Zimmermann to keep it going in providing more serviceable work, and I also feel the same about Michael Pineda.
Say what you will about the burly right-hander’s ever-blossoming weight but since making his delayed season (and team) debut following visa issues, Pineda has resumed where he left off a year ago.
People forget just how steady Pineda was as a Minnesota Twin during his three years there before signing with Detroit this past offseason. Remember, this was also his return from Tommy John surgery, and in those seasons in the Twin Cities, Pineda was collectively 22-13 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 53 games (52 starts). He also recorded 8.1 K/9 and batters took him deep for only 1.3 HR/9.
A similar output has ensued in Pineda’s new digs and I expect him to maintain that at least one more turn considering the offense he’ll be squaring off with. Normally, Baltimore is represented by one of the lighter-hitting offenses in the league, but even more so at this moment with the team’s most dynamic player, Ryan Mountcastle (wrist), on the injured list.
Stable starters continuing to do steady things. That’s the basis for this particular bet and look for said pitching to deliver.
Pick: UNDER 8 (-120)
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “19-13-4,” +4.21 units
Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Pirates Under 8 (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit