MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 15, Mariners vs Mets

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins
Apr 30, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Seattle Mariners at New York Mets

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Robbie Ray (3-3, 4.22 ERA) vs. Carlos Carrasco (3-1, 3.19 ERA)

New York Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) reacts after striking out Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte to close the Met’s side in the fifth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, April 16, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

If his last start is any indication, the award-winning version of Robbie Ray that won a Cy Young trophy last year is back.

In that outing against a tough Phillies lineup, Ray compiled his first double-digit strikeout performance of the campaign, something that’s been a trademark in the left-hander’s skillset. After all, he notched at least seven such outputs in each of the last two full seasons (2019 and 2021).

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Like that aforementioned turn with Philly, who trot out an offense that could be vulnerable opposite left-handed strikeout artists, Ray will again draw a favorable matchup. The Mets have been lacking as a club against southpaws, bringing both the league’s second-worst in team OPS (.615) and average (.213) versus lefties.

Those tendencies were on display in the series opener on Friday when New York failed to generate anything significant when facing the slow-throwing Marco Gonzales. For the finale, they’ll have to take on a much harder-throwing — and simply considerably better — southpaw.

Give the edge to Ray and enlist the former All-Star to maintain his solid pitching. The Mets being so challenged by left-handers presents Ray another juicy opportunity to potentially dominate. At worst, surmise the ceiling isn’t too high for the Amazin’s.

We can argue also that the ceiling won’t be too high for the Mariners offense either given Ray’s counterpart this afternoon. That would be someone who appears to be in the midst of a true renaissance year.

After a disappointing, injury-riddled first season with the Mets last year, Carlos Carrasco is turning back the clock to when he was a consistently good starting pitcher for awhile as a Cleveland Indian.

He enters this assignment at 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA, and most notably, Carrasco is currently carrying a WHIP (1.01) and batting average against (.225) that would both register as career-low marks in his career (during his years as a full-time starter) if those concluded around there.

The big difference between this season and last is pretty simple: Carrasco is fully healthy again. When that’s the case and he doesn’t have to lean on his fastball and sinker so much (to manage pain), he’s back to being one of the better starters.

The bats shouldn’t be too loud at Citi Field today opposite these two surging starters, ceding way for a low-scoring outcome.


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “20-13-4,” +5.21 units

Yesterday’s Result: Orioles-Tigers Under 8 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit