MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Tyler Mahle (2-4, 5.89 ERA) vs. Cal Quantrill (1-2, 3.93 ERA)

For the last Ohio Cup series meeting of the season, let’s investigate what looks like a pretty promising pitching matchup.

Aside from that, we’ll try to capitalize on a stripped-down Reds lineup before the window closes on this predicament. Jonathan India (hamstring), Joey Votto (COVID) and Nick Senzel (COVID) all remain out and these are arguably the three best hitters in Cincy’s batting order.

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Well, good news for Cal Quantrill then going into his next assignment. As it is, he’s pitched very splendidly at Progressive Field since being traded to then-Indians.

In 18 home starts as a member of his current club, Quantrill holds a clean 2.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s been very consistent in front of Guardians faithful, too, remarkably yielding three runs or fewer in all but one of those starts. When tasked with a total of 8 or higher, that can be hugely valuable knowledge to exploit.

Quantrill has also been solid through the first month and a half of the campaign, posting the same exact .234 batting average against thus far that he ended with last year. This is notable considering in 2021, the former first-round draft choice had his first breakout showing across a full season when he went 8-3 in 40 ballgames (22 starts) with a 2.89 ERA.

Ah, and that brings us to Tyler Mahle, who I just can’t get enough of — especially while carrying that very uncharacteristic 5.89 ERA next to his name. He is obviously far, far superior to this unflattering mark.

As I’ve highlighted before, there’s a big discrepancy in his deeper statistics that indicate much better work from the right-hander, like his 3.44 FIP and 3.56 xERA. When there is this much of a gap between those numbers and the actual ERA, it’s a vibrant sign that Mahle will turn it around.

And as always when handicapping an affair involving this 27-year-old right-hander, you definitely prefer to be backing him on the road than at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Fortunately here, Mahle has a date set in Cleveland.

Throughout his career, he’s been significantly more consistent away from Cincinnati than at home. After claiming yet another road win last time out in Pittsburgh, Mahle now wields a 3.90 ERA in his 56 career away games. Contrast that with the 5.11 ERA he’s logged at home and there’s a major difference to note.

Another key in getting the best out of Mahle is when he’s dishing the K’s. His strikeout rate in each of the last few seasons was at least one punch-out per inning, including a career-best 10.5 K/9 last year, and after amassing six strikeouts in back-to-back starts for the first time this season, he may be surging.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “20-15-5,” +2.86 units

Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Guardians Under 8 (Postponed)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit