MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: April 8, Marlins vs Giants

MLB: Spring Training-Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Mar 23, 2022; Jupiter, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch in the 3rd inning of the spring training game against the Washington Nationals at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 4:35 p.m. ET

Probables: Sandy Alcantara (0-0, -.– ERA) vs. Logan Webb (0-0, -.– ERA)

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Two of the true emerging young starters in the National League will go at it this afternoon to kick off their clubs’ respective slates. Facing off in a distinct pitcher’s park helps flash the makings of an under about to commence by the bay.

Those following my over/unders instantly recall my affection for Alcantara since first joining the Marlins. Even more so, the right-hander’s stingy consistency for his daytime assignments has always been something to watch as one of the steadiest tendencies of any arm around.

Throughout his career as a starter, Alcantara has etched a pretty 2.14 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across his 26 career starts during the afternoon, providing an excellent record in unders during these games as well. Additionally, he’s only been tagged for 14 long balls while the sun is out, meaning he yields only about one homer every two starts under these settings.

Getting to work in arguably the friendliest ballpark for pitchers can only increase the likelihood of a ball not going beyond the outfield fences with Alcantara on the hill.

So, the Miami ace appears poised for a quality outing that should considerably minimize the Giants on the scoreboard, especially since he’s been reliable in his prior showings that kicked off the Marlins’ season.

We can also trust his counterpart, Webb, to churn out similar results. Though the Marlins sport an improved lineup compared to recent years, it doesn’t matter given Webb’s weavings at home.

Last year, the former fourth-round pick enjoyed an absolutely incredible breakout campaign. He was even unbeaten (7-0) in all his turns following the All-Star break.

Webb also went undefeated in San Francisco — for the whole season — going 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 games (12 starts) at Oracle Park. Remarkably, he yielded more than two earned runs only twice when pitching in front of the Giants’ faithful, meaning we really have two starters in a preferred comfort zone today.

For those wondering if Webb can come close to resembling those numbers in a higher-pressure situation like an Opening Day tilt, just look at how the 25-year-old pitched in the playoffs a year ago. Webb faced the tough Dodgers lineup twice — both starts being at home — and allowed just a measly run across 14.2 innings combined while racking up 17 strikeouts.

When spotting two constants about to play out, capitalizing on that makes sense. Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-115)


2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 1-0, +1 unit

Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Oct 14, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning in game five of the 2021 NLDS at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports