The player prop is fast becoming one of the go-to bets for all sports bettors. In terms of MLB betting that often means we can look at how many strikeouts a pitcher might get or how many hits or total bases a hitter would get.
It’s a simple and fun way to bet on a game and have one outcome to root for. But, like all betting, it’s not without its risk. In this article, we’ll take you through some of our favorite player prop bets for the day in MLB action.
MLB Player Prop Bets: May 23rd
Luis Garcia Over (4.5 Strikeouts)
Luis Garcia burst onto the scene last year, but he doesn’t seem like he wants to go away. The 25-year-old has a 3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 26.6% strikeout rate, which equates to 9.80 strikeouts per nine innings. He has struck out at least five batters in five of his last six starts. The only starts in which he didn’t top this number were his first start of the season and last start against Boston, both of which he only pitched four innings.
I know that Cleveland has been a pretty good offense and has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, but I think this is an over-correction against a pitcher who has proven that he can rack up this amount of swing-and-miss on a consistent basis.
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Zack Wheeler Over (6.5 Strikeouts)
Wheeler got off to a slow start to the season after dealing with shoulder fatigue in the abbreviated Spring Training; however, he has settled down of late. On the season he has a 3.49 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 25.9% strikeout rate, which is 9.54 strikeouts per nine innings. He also has notched at least seven strikeouts in each of his last four games.
Atlanta may strike you are being a great offense because they have some elite hitters and also, you know, won the World Series last year. However, in the month of May, Atlanta is dead last in Major League Baseball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. That’s good news for this prop.
Freddie Freeman Over (1.5 Total Bases)
This one is pretty simple: Freddie Freeman is very good and Joan Adon is not. On the season, Freeman is hitting .301/.391/.464 with an almost equal strikeout to walk rate. He has an 11.4% barrel rate and a 44% hard-hit rate, so he’s stinging the ball, as he usually does.
He’s now going up against a young pitcher with a 6.38 ERA who is allowing a 13.4% barrel rate and 35% hard-hit rate. I expect the Dodgers to be all over Adon in this game, and one double from Freddie Freeman is all it will take to clear this prop.
Jonathan Villar Over (0.5 total bases)
Villar may not be hitting the ball particularly hard lately, but he does have seven hits in his last five games as he finds himself with an everyday spot in the Cubs’ lineup. The last two games he has also hit 2nd, which affords him more opportunities to hit this prop. Given Villar’s recent run of success, he is my top Cubs choice in this game, but you may have other favorites. The key here is that we are attacking Vladimir Gutirrez.
The Reds’ starter has been awful this season. He has a 8.65 ERA and is allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 2.08 home runs per nine innings. He has also given up 32 hits in just 26 innings so far this season. If the Cubs are going to average over a hit per innings off of him, that gives me a lot of confidence when all we need is one single from Villar, no matter how hard he hits it.