Milwaukee Bucks (42-25) at Golden State Warriors (45-22)
Saturday, March 12th @ Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
How to Watch
- 8:30 ET on ABC
- Milwaukee: 31-36 ATS, 17-14 ATS on the road, 34-33 O/U
- Golden State: 33-30-4 ATS, 18-14-2 ATS at home, 29-36-2 O/U
- Pace of play: Milwaukee is 8th; Golden State is 17th
Recent Play (last 10 games)
- Bucks: 7-3; 124.4 PG, 49.2 RPG, 24.7 APG, 6.6 SPG, and 2.9 BPG, while shooting 48.9% from the field and allowing 117.9 points.
- Warriors: 3-7; 114.5 PPG, 41.1 RPG, 27.4 APG, 9.6 SPG, and 3.9 BPG, while shooting 48.7% from the field and allowing 114.3 points per game
- Draymond Green; GSW, PF: Out (Back) Green claims he’ll be back March 14th
- Otto Porter Jr.; GSW, SF: Questionable (Illness) He’s missed the last three games
- Gary Payton Jr.; GSW, G: Questionable (Knee) He’s missed the last team games with knee soreness
- George Hill; MIL, PG: Questionable (Neck)
- Pat Connaughton; MIL, SG: Out (Hand Surgery) He hopes to come back before the end of the regular season
When both teams are fully healthy, this is a matchup of strength versus strength. The Bucks are the 2nd-highest scoring offensive in the NBA at 114.6 points per game, and you can see how hot they’ve been on offense given their recent ten-game numbers. However, the Warriors have allowed the fifth-fewest points per game on the season, at just 104.9 points per game. They are the second-best three-point defense in the league and would pose a major problem for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and company. However, the potential absence of Gary Payton II along with Draymond Green would be a major blow to the Warriors on the defensive end.
If there is any lapse on the perimeter, the Bucks are absolutely going to take advantage. They shoot the 4th-most threes per game in the NBA at the fifth-best percentage in the league. This could be a boost to guys like Middleton, Grayson Allen, and Jrue Holiday.
However, we know that the Warriors will also obviously launch from beyond the arc. They make the third-most threes per game on the season, and the Bucks are a middle-of-the-road defense against the three, allowing 34.8% shooting from behind the arc (14th) and 14.1 three-point makes allowed per game, which is worst in the NBA. That alone should be reason enough for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole to be able to keep this game close.
In addition to knocking down their shots, the Warriors will have to hold onto the ball if they have any hope of pulling off the upset. They are 29th in the NBA with 14.4 turnovers per game on the season, but the Bucks only rank 19th with 12.6 turnovers forced per game. The Bucks aren’t going to bring the kind of pressure, which will force turnovers, so Golden State just needs to not shoot itself in the foot in order to keep itself in the game.
With the way Milwaukee has been scoring lately, and the fireworks that the Golden State can bring from beyond the arc, this should be a high-scoring contest on Saturday night.