We’ve got a relatively full nine-game slate tonight in the NBA, so let’s dive into the schedule, odds, and top picks for Monday, March 28, 2022.
NBA odds today, picks: March 28
Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Nuggets last 10: 5-5
- Nuggets ATS: 34-41 (21st)
- Hornets last 10: 7-3
- Hornets ATS: 41-32-2 (5th)
- Over/Under Trends: Four of the Nuggets’ last five games have gone over 233.5 points. Just two of the Hornets’ last five have gone over.
- The pick: Nuggets (-3)
- Why?: The Nuggets have won seven of their last eight road games, and the Hornets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games on the second game of a back-to-back. The Hornets are also coming off of an upset of the Brooklyn Nets on the road just last night, so this looks like a prime letdown spot. The Nuggets are also 13-4 when Nikola Jokic scores over 30 points, and he’s running a hot streak, scoring over 28 in five of his last six games, which means you could also look to bet Jokic over 26.5 points.
Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Magic last 10: 4-6
- Magic ATS: 34-41 (22nd)
- Cavs last 10: 4-6
- Cavs ATS: 38-30-6 (8th)
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the Magic’s last five games have gone over 216.5 total points. Four of the Cavs’ last five games have also gone over 216.5 total points.
- The pick: Cole Anthony (3.5) and Lauri Markkanen (6.5) over rebounds
- Why?: These are two teams who are not playing their best basketball of late, which will likely mean missed shots and opportunities for rebounds. Markkanen has grabbed nine or more rebounds in four of the last five games, so hitting the over seems well within his wheelhouse, while Anthony has hit the over on 3.5 rebounds in 77% of his games this season.
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Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Hawks last 10: 6-4
- Hawks ATS: 31-43 (28th)
- Pacers last 10: 3-7
- Pacers ATS: 31-40-4 (23rd)
- Over/Under Trends: The Hawks have only been able to cover 235 total points in two of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Pacers have not covered 235 total points in any of their last five games.
- The pick: The Under (as mentioned above) and Tyrese Haliburton under 15.5 points
- Why?: We already mentioned the recent trends towards the under in this game, so we’ll stick with that, which likely means fewer players are going to hit the over on their points props. The Pacers have also been struggling of late and have lost all three games to the Hawks so far, so it’s hard to be excited about that offense. Haliburton himself hasn’t scored over 15 points in the last six games as he’s taken on more of a facilitating role, notching at least seven assists in each of those games.
Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m.
- Bulls last 10: 4-6
- Bulls ATS: 39-34-1 (11th)
- Knicks last 10: 6-4
- Knicks ATS: 35-40 (20th)
- Over/Under Trends: The Bulls have gone over 219 total points in just one of their last five games, while the Knicks have had games go over this total in three of their last five. In fact, each of the Bulls’ last seven games against conference opponents has gone under this total.
- The pick: Bulls (-3.5) and Alec Burks over (1.5 threes)
- Why?: The Knicks generally do poorly against good teams and have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 14 home games against winning teams. The Bulls have also won 14 of their last 15 games as favorites, which all seems to lean towards a Bulls win in a game with a low spread. However, the Bulls are 24th in the NBA in three-point defense and Burks has gone over 1.5 threes in eight of his last ten and in each of his last six games, so we can ride the hot shooter.
Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Kings last 10: 3-7
- Kings ATS: 35-38-2 (18th)
- Heat last 10: 4-6
- Heat ATS: 40-34-1 (10th)
- Over/Under Trends: The Kings have seen their point totals go over 216.5 in four of their last five games. Same goes for the Heat. The total dropped from the 222.5 total points it opened at, so perhaps it’s dropped too low.
- The pick: Trey Lyles under 1.5 threes and Davion Mitchell under 2.5 threes
- Why?: The Kings are 23rd in the NBA in three-point percentage, and the Heat are 4th in the NBA in defending the three, so right off the bat, we don’t like the overs for most Kings’ shooters. However, Mitchell has only hit this over in two of his last ten games, so he makes for the more enticing bet. Lyles has gone over this total in three of his last five but just four of his last ten. He’s not really a three-point shooter, so the tough matchup has me leaning towards the under.
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Celtics last 10: 9-1
- Celtics ATS: 39-34-2 (12th)
- Raptors last 10: 8-2
- Raptors ATS: 43-31 (3rd)
- Over/Under Trends: The last five Celtics games have gone over 212.5 points as their offense has been clicking. However, only two of the last five Raptors games have gone over this total, and Jayson Tatum is currently questionable with a knee injury, which may be why the total is set so low. You’ll need to keep an eye on that before placing any bets on this line or Celtics players.
- The pick: TBA
- Why?: Props for this game have not yet been announced due to Tatum’s questionable status. We will update later in the day.
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Spurs last 10: 6-4
- Spurs ATS: 36-36-2 (15th)
- Rockets last 10: 4-6
- Rockets ATS: 31-43-1 (27th)
- Over/Under Trends: Only one of the last five Spurs games has gone over 234.5 total points. Yet, none of the Rockets’ last five games have gone over this total, which is making the under look appealing.
- The pick: Dejounte Murray over 7.5 rebounds
- Why?: For starters, Murray has gone over this total in seven of his last ten games, and two of the times he missed, he missed by one rebound. The Rockets are also 21st in rebounds allowed, while the Spurs are the 9th-best rebounding team in the NBA. The Spurs are also playing inconsistent basketball of late, so there shouldn’t be too much blowout risk in this game, and you could also get a little riskier and play Murray over 9.5 assists since the Rockets are 25th in assists allowed.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies, 8:00 p.m. ET
- Warriors last 10: 5-5
- Warriors ATS: 36-35-4 (14th)
- Grizzlies last 10: 8-2
- Grizzlies ATS: 48-26-1 (1st)
- Over/Under Trends: Three of the Warriors’ last five games have gone over 222 total points, and it’s actually been in each of their last three games. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have only gone over this total once in their last five. The Grizzlies are 12th in points allowed and the Warriors are 5th in points allowed, so a few metrics here are trending towards the under.
- The pick: Desmond Bane over 2.5 threes
- Why?: The Warriors are a good defense and actually rank 5th in three-point field goals percentage allowed, but this is a numbers game. It shouldn’t take much for Bane to hit three three-pointers considering he’s done it in eight of his last ten games. He also averages 7.6 three-point attempts per game in March and has 24 three-point attempts over his last three games. He’s also been on fire, shooting a ridiculous 49.5% from three in March, so even if he cools off a little, he should be able to get three to go down.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Thunder last 10: 1-9
- Thunder ATS: 45-25-4 (2nd)
- Trail Blazers last 10: 2-8
- Trail Blazers ATS: 29-44-1 (30th)
- Over/Under Trends: Only two of the Thunder’s last five games have gone under the 222 point total; however four of the last five Trail Blazers games have and each of the last four games between these two teams have gone under the total.
- The pick: Under 222
- Why?: It’s being reported that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be done for the season with an ankle injury, which just means there are even fewer playmakers for the Thunder. In fact, both teams are so banged up that it’s hard to have confidence in betting any player props from the regular bench guys thrust into bigger roles. The under may just be the play here.
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