The player prop is fast becoming one of the go-to bets for all sports bettors. In terms of MLB betting that often means we can look at how many strikeouts a pitcher might get or how many hits or total bases a hitter would get.
It’s a simple and fun way to bet on a game and have one outcome to root for. But, like all betting, it’s not without its risk. In this article, we’ll take you through some of our favorite player prop bets for the day in MLB action.
MLB Player Prop Bets: May 13th
Yu Darvish Over (5.5 Strikeouts)
People feel so confident that Darvish can get over 5.5 strikeouts, that some sportsbooks have already pushed it up to 6.5. If you can get 5.5, I would place that bet. Darvish has underperformed his career norms in terms of strikeouts – down to 7.56 K/9 from a career 10.98 rate. However, I think this is a good get-right game for him in that regard.
The Braves may be defending champions, but they’ve been fairly inconsistent so far this year and are 29th in baseball in strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Guys like Adam Duvall, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley can certainly do damage, but they also do strike out a fair bit, so we shouldn’t be scared off too much from this matchup.
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Logan Webb Over (4.5 Strikeouts)
Logan Webb hasn’t quite been as dominant as he was to end the 2021 season, but I think this line is way too low. Yes, Webb just has 6.88 K/9 or an 18% strikeout rate; however, I believe that’s misleading.
He only earned three strikeouts in his first start, but we can expect a little rust with the short Spring Training. His one strikeout performance against the Mets was simply a poor start and he didn’t even finish three innings, while his three strikeout game against the Nationals was impacted by the fact that he had just faced the same Nationals team six days earlier (recording six strikeouts), so his arsenal was fresh in their minds.
Webb has a solid 11.4% swinging-strike rate and 29.8% CSW (called strikes plus whiffs), so I simply think this number is too low given his overall talent as a pitcher.
Daulton Jefferies Under (4.5 Strikeouts)
A lot of bettors have already bet this line down to 3.5, so if you can still get it at 4.5, I would pounce. I don’t think Jefferies will be in this game long enough to hit that total. After three good starts to begin the year, the right-hander has given up 15 runs in 14 innings across his last three starts. He’s also allowed 22 hits over that same span.
Now he faces an Angels team that is 1st in team slugging percentage, 1st in home runs, 1st in total runs scored, and 6th in team batting average. It wouldn’t shock me if Jefferies didn’t make it out of the third inning.
Nick Pivetta Over (5.5 Strikeouts)
This is my long odds play, but I feel good about it for a few reasons. For starters, John Laghezza talked about this prop on today’s episode of The (L)Earning Curve podcast, which always makes me feel good about a play.
Texas is 26th in all of baseball in strikeout rate over the last two weeks and is hitting only .210 as a team over that span. While Pivetta hasn’t been great for the Red Sox, he averages 9.79 strikeouts per nine, so a 24.2% strikeout rate. That’s pretty solid.
He’s also gone over this total in two of his last three games and missed against Baltimore by 0.5 strikeouts because he wasn’t able to finish the fourth inning. However, with Pivetta throwing six shutout innings against the White Sox last time out, I’m going to buy into a slight bounceback from him and think he can get six strikeouts in five innings of work.
Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases
Let’s end with an offensive prop. Aaron Judge has been on a heater, hitting .295 with six home runs, 11 runs, 16 RBI, and a stolen base. Given how many extra-base hits he gets, he really only needs one at-bat to get this prop. I like that more than taking a gamble on a slap-hitter.
The other factor I like is that Vince Velasquez is a pitcher I want to target. His surface-level stats look good, but he’s also allowing a 13.2% barrel rate and a 45.6% hard-hit rate. His 5.60 xERA and 4.47 xFIP also suggest that a blow-up outing is in the works, so I’ll take my gamble with Judge helping ensure that tonight.