We went 2-2 last night to start the NBA week with the Warriors’ cold-shooting hurting our chance at the over. For tonight, we’ll try to kick it up a notch.

Below I’ll take you through today’s entire schedule, the betting odds for each game, and some stats and picks that we think should help you not only prepare to enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

NBA Odds and Schedule, May 10

#4 Philadelphia 76ers (51-31) @ #1 Miami Heat (53-29), 7:30 p.m. ET

Series is tied 2-2

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Not surprisingly, the return of Joel Embiid has turned this series on its head, with the 76ers winning both games that the big man has played in.

Embiid went for 24 points and 11 rebounds in Game 4, but it was James Harden that really exploded, notching 31 points on 8-8 shooting and 6-10 from beyond the arc, while adding nine assists and seven rebounds. As a team, the 76ers shot 48.5% from three to help seal a 116-108 win.

The Heat wasted a 40-point effort from Jimmy Butler, who hit 13-20 from the field and also added six assists and two steals. The Heat have also moved Duncan Robinson out of the rotations but Max Strus only had six points, and the Heat have essentially become a seven-man rotation, which I don’t think is the best idea.

On the season, Miami is the 4th-best team in the NBA against the spread at 51-39-1, while Philadelphia is middle-of-the-pack at 44-47-1, which is 16th. At home, Miami is fairly solid, going 25-21 ATS (9th), while Philadelphia is also average on the road at 23-22-1 ATS, which is 18th in the NBA.

Miami trended more towards the Over during the season, currently sitting at 50-40-1 (5th) while Philadelphia is 43-47-2 (21st). However, in the playoffs, Miami has gone under in seven of their nine games, while Philadelphia has gone under in six of their ten total games.

Miami has gone just 5-4 against the spread in the playoffs, while Philadelphia has gone 6-4; however, Miami will be without Kyle Lowry (hamstring) for tonight’s showdown.

For a more detailed breakdown, Click here to read the full series preview

THE PICK:

#4 Dallas Mavericks (52-30) @ #1 Phoenix Suns (64-18), 10:00 p.m. ET

Series is tied 2-2

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After being non-competitive in the first two games of the series, Dallas stormed back to win two games at home and tie the series.

Foul trouble was a major story for the Suns in Game 4. Chris Paul was only able to play 23 minutes, scoring just five points with seven assists and five rebounds. In his sted, Cameron Payne wasn’t able to do much and the Suns used Cam Johnson more and had Booker play point guard. As a result, Booker notched 35 points on 10-22 shooting, but there wasn’t enough around him.

Jae Crowder had 15 points and Deandre Ayton chipped in 14 points and 11 rebounds, but the Suns will need Chris Paul running the show if the offense is going to be as efficient as they need it to be.

On the other end, the Mavericks shot 45.5% from beyond the arc, but Luka Doncic shot just 1-10. That’s crazy. That means the rest of the tea was 19-34 from three-point land in Game 4, which is incredible and clearly not sustainable. The major player there was Dorian Finney-Smith, who shot 8-12 from three for 24 points and eight rebounds.

If the Mavericks can continue to rotate big games from their role players to support Doncic, then they have a shot to pull off this upset,

On the season, Phoenix is 50-42 against the spread (9th), and the Mavericks are an even better 54-36-2 ATS (3rd). Phoenix is worse at home, going 23-23 ATS (12th) as the road team, while Dallas is a strong 27-19 ATS on the road (7th).

Neither of these teams is consistent at hitting the over. Phoenix is better, coming in at 47-45 in the O/U, good for 11th, while the Mavericks are dead last in the NBA in the O/U at 35-55-2. Those trends have only partially carried over into the playoffs as Phoenix is 6-6 in the O/U but Dallas is 4-6. Both of the games in Dallas went under, and Dallas is 12-33-1 in the O/U at home on the season, while Phoenix is 25-21 at home on the season, so perhaps the home environment will factor in there.

In the playoffs, Phoenix is 6-4 against the spread, while Dallas is an impressive 7-3. The teams are split 2-2 ATS in this series with the home team covering in every game.

For a more detailed breakdown, Click here to read the full series preview

THE PICK: