MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: April 28

Red Sox Blue Jays Baseball
Boston Red Sox’s Xander Bogaerts (2) scores as Toronto Blue Jays catcher Tyler Heineman tries to make the tag during the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, April 27, 2022, in Toronto. (Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press via AP)

We’re rolling a little bit on our MLB bets right now. We went 12-2 last night and are sitting pretty so far to start the week:

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, April 28


Milwaukee Brewers (12-7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (8-10), 12:35 p.m. ET

These are two of the bottom third offenses in baseball in the early going. The Pirates are 22nd in baseball with 3.67 runs scored per game, while Milwaukee has disappointed early on, scoring just 3.74 runs per game, good for 21st in MLB. Milwaukee has seen their bullpen settle a bit to a 3.25 ERA, while the Pirates have a poor 4.10 bullpen rate.

  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (0-1, 7.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 12.00 K/9 in 2021)
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5.14 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

San Diego Padres (12-7) @ Cincinnati Reds (3-15), 12:35 p.m. ET

The Reds have had two solid offensive games in this series and are currently all the way up to a tie for 28th in baseball with 3.00 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Padres are scoring 4.42 runs per game and rank 10th in the league. Despite success in years past, these are two mediocre bullpens to start the year, with the Padres registering a 4.14 ERA and the Reds compiling a 3.76 rate.

  • SD Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez (0-2, 4.30 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 7.98 K/9)
  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle (1-2, 6.88 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 10.06 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: I’m gonna pass here all because of Tyler Mahle. He’s been pretty poor to start the season and has drastic home/road splits, but he’s also talented enough to totally shut down an average San Diego lineup. Nick Martinez is also a total unknown. He’s shown flashes in his first three starts but as average numbers. He’s also faced the Braves, Giants, and Dodgers, so it’s entirely possible he comes out and totally shuts down Cincinnati. I just don’t feel comfortable laying a bet given all the question marks here.

Baltimore Orioles (6-12) @ New York Yankees (12-6), 1:05 p.m. ET

On the season, the Orioles have had a rough start the year, ranking tied for 28th in baseball with 3.00 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Yankees are showing signs of life and are now scoring 4.17 runs per game and rank 14th in the league. Both of these bullpens have been elite to start the year, with the Yankees registering a 2.71 bullpen ERA but Baltimore has started to come back to earth and now has a 3.53 rate.

  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Bruce Zimmermann (1-0, 1.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.60 K/9)
  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon (1-1, 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.98 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Colorado Rockies (10-8) @ Philadelphia Phillies (9-10), 1:05 p.m. ET

The Rockies have cooled a bit away from home, ranking 11th in baseball with 4.39 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Phillies have started to heat up a bit, scoring 4.68 runs per game and ranking 7th in the league. The Rockies has come back to earth in the last week and now have a league-worst 4.80 bullpen ERA while Philadelphia has been bad all year and has a 4.22 rate.

  • COL Starting Pitcher: Austin Gomber (1-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.40 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler (0-3, 8.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.90 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: Just like with the Reds and Padres game, there are just too many crucial question marks. My model has this game with 13.21 runs scored, and I know many people want to take the over, but I also know the model is skewed by Wheeler’s really poor start. Is this Wheeler just shaking off rust or is there a real problem? Until we have a clearer understanding of that, it’s really hard to decide how to bet on this game. He could shut down Colorado and the Phillies could roll or he could implode and Colorado has the bats to take advantage.

Miami Marlins (9-8) @ Washington Nationals (6-14), 1:05 p.m. ET

Miami ranks 17th in baseball with 3.88 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Nationals have been a bit worse, ranking 26th in the league with 3.25 runs per game. The Marlins have a solid 3.15 bullpen ERA while Nationals have been fairly average to start the year and have a 3.74 rate.

  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers (0-3, 6.94 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 7.71 K/9)
  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Patrick Corbin (0-3, 11.20 ERA, 2.56 WHIP, 9.88 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Detroit Tigers (6-11) @ Minnesota Twins (10-8), 1:10 p.m. ET

The under has hit in each of the first two games in this series, and today is another matchup between these two mediocre lineups. The Tigers rank tied for 24th in baseball with 3.35 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Twins rank 20th in the league with 3.78 runs scored per game. The Tigers have had some of the best relief performances to start the year and have a 2.25 bullpen ERA while the Twins have been poor to start the year and have a 4.23 rate.

  • DET Starting Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (1-1, 2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.19 K/9)
  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober (1-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.31 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

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Seattle Mariners (11-7) @ Tampa Bay Rays (10-8), 1:10 p.m. ET

Even after last night’s game, Seattle’s offense has been strong despite not having Mitch Haniger, ranking 4th in baseball with 4.83 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Rays are just outside the top-10 scoring 4.33 runs per game and ranking 12th in the league. The Mariners have weathered the storm of a few key bullpen injuries and have a 3.00 bullpen ERA while the Rays have started to settle in and have a 3.03 rate.

  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Chris Flexen (1-2, 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.71 K/9)
  • TB Starting Pitcher: Jalen Beeks (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 13.50 K/9 in 4 relief appearances)
  • The Pick: 

Houston Astros (9-9) @ Texas Rangers (6-12), 2:05 p.m. ET

The Astros continue to struggle to do damage on offense, ranking 23rd with 3.61 runs scored per game, while Texas has seen their free-agent signings pay off, ranking tied for 8th with 4.50 runs per game. The Texas pitching staff has been another story but their bullpen has been improving as of late, pitching to a 4.10 ERA, while Houston has a bullpen ERA of 2.96.

  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander (1-1, 1.89 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 9.47 K/9)
  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Martin Perez (0-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.71 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, April 16, 2022, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Kansas City Royals (6-10) @ Chicago White Sox (7-10), 2:10 p.m. ET

These offenses confuse the hell out of me. They couldn’t score off of two poor pitchers on Tuesday but then the over hits with two strong pitchers on the mound on Wednesday. The Royals rank tied for 26th in baseball with 3.25 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the White Sox have been severely impacted by injuries and are scoring just 3.35 runs per game, tied for 24th in the league. Both teams have had under-performing bullpens so far given that they were meant to be strengths on the team. The Royals have a 4.34 bullpen ERA while Chicago has a 3.94 rate and a potentially injured Liam Hendriks.

  • KC Starting Pitcher: Brad Keller (0-2, 2.55 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 7.13 K/9)
  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech (0-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 9.64 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Boston Red Sox (8-11) @ Toronto Blue Jays (12-7), 3:07 p.m. ET

Boston has had two solid offensive games in this series but has been struggling to start the year and ranks 18th in baseball with 3.79 runs scored per game, while Toronto is 15th with 4.16 runs per game. Both bullpens had been relatively strong to start the year, but both have struggles in this series and the Blue Jays now have a 3.55 bullpen ERA, while the Red Sox now have a 3.49 rate.

  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Garrett Whitlock (1-0, 0.66 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, 11.85 K/9)
  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Alek Manoah (3-0, 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.00 K/9
  • The Pick: 


Cleveland Guardians (7-11) @ Los Angeles Angels (12-7), 4:07 p.m. ET

Cleveland has cooled a bit of late, ranking tied for 8th in baseball with 4.50 runs per game, while the Angels are surging with 5.00 runs per game, good for a tie for 2nd in the league. The Angels continue to struggle with their bullpen and now have a 4.32 bullpen ERA while Cleveland has compiled a 3.54 rate.

  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Cal Quantrill (1-0, 3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.38 K/9)
  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Reid Detmers (0-1, 6.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.76 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: The model calls for this to hit the over, but I really like Detmers’ potential, so I’m not ready to go there yet. I think the Cleveland offense is really just two players, so it’s possible Detmers can keep them down and Quantrill continues to be solid, even though I am not a believer in him. I just don’t have a feel for either pitcher, so I’m gonna leave it.


Chicago Cubs (8-10) @ Atlanta Braves (8-11), 7:20 p.m. ET

The Cubs’ offense is still boosted by their series in Colorado and that one massive game against Pittsburgh, but they rank 1st in baseball with 5.06 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Braves are middle of the pack, scoring just 3.89 runs per game and ranking tied for 16th in the league. The Cubs are, shockingly, the team with the better-performing bullpen so far with a 2.56 bullpen ERA while the Braves have hit-and-miss in the early part of the year and have a 4.00 rate.

  • CHC Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly (1-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.52 K/9)
  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Wright (2-0, 1.06 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 13.76 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Arizona Diamondbacks (8-11) @ St. Louis Cardinals (10-7), 7:45 p.m. ET

The Diamondbacks somehow won the last two games in their series against the Dodgers, but still rank tied for 28th in baseball with just 3.00 runs per game. Meanwhile, St. Louis was held down for most of their series against the Mets and now rank 13th with 4.24 runs per game. These teams have polar opposite bullpens with the Cardinals having a strong 2.47 bullpen ERA and the Diamondbacks registering a 4.02 rate.

  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Humberto Castellanos (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.00 K/9)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Dakota Hudson (1-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.59 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Dakota Hudson (43) throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds Saturday, April 23, 2022, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

Parlay of the Day

Season Record: 4-8 (Since our guideline is a minimum of +500 odds, these will always be longer shots)

MIA ML + DET/CHW (Under 7) + BOS/TOR (Under 8)

Odds: +524 so $10 would pay out $62.47

Staff Picks

Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games: