MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: May 10

Guardians White Sox Baseball
Cleveland Guardians’ Josh Naylor, center, celebrates his game tying grand slam off Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Liam Hendriks during the ninth inning of a baseball game Monday, May 9, 2022, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

After putting together a 73% win rate in MLB betting two weeks ago, we took a slight step back last week, but still finished above .500. So let’s try to get this thing back into the major win column.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 10

Oakland Athletics (11-18) @ Detroit Tigers (8-20), 1:10 p.m. ET

Game 1 of a doubleheader

These are two fairly poor offenses, which we saw play out in the first game of the series. Oakland ranks 27th in baseball with 3.38 runs per game; meanwhile, the Tigers are dead last with 2.79 runs per game. The Tigers have had one of the best bullpens in baseball to start the season, earning a 2.61 ERA, while the Athletics have a solid 3.26 bullpen ERA.

  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Frankie Montas (2-2, 3.44 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.08 K/9)
  • DET Starting Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (1-2, 3.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.79 K/9)
  • The Pick:  

 

Oakland Athletics (11-18) @ Detroit Tigers (8-20), 4:40 p.m. ET

Game 2 of a doubleheader

See above.

  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Adrian Martinez (0-3, 7.45 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 11.64 K/9 in minors)
  • DET Starting Pitcher: Alex Faedo (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 14.40 K/9 in minors)
  • The Pick:  

Los Angeles Dodgers (19-7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (12-16), 6:35 p.m. ET

The Dodgers are back where they belong as the best offense in baseball with 5.00 runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking 21st with 3.82 runs scored per game. The Dodgers bullpen has a strong 2.65 ERA, while the Pirates are near the bottom with a 4.26 mark.

  • LAD Starting Pitcher: Tony Gonsolin (2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.36 K/9)
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Bryse Wilson (0-1, 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.58 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Milwaukee Brewers (19-11) @ Cincinnati Reds (6-23), 6:40 p.m. ET

The Brewers have cooled from their hot stretch in the middle of last week (which was against these Reds), but are scoring 4.77 runs per game, ranking 5th in baseball. That’s the polar opposite of the Reds, who rank 22nd with 3.79 runs scored per game; however, the Reds have scored 7.33 runs per game over their last three. These bullpens are also polar opposites, as the Brewers have a 3.32 mark, while the Reds have a poor 4.89 mark.

  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (1-1, 5.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.74 K/9)
  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene (1-4, 8.71 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 12.63 K/9 in 2021)
  • The Pick: 

Apr 10, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) delivers the baseball in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

New York Mets (20-10) @ Washington Nationals (10-20), 7:05 p.m. ET

Washington has been picking it up of late and now rank 13th with 4.17 runs per game. The Mets have been one of the better teams in baseball, ranking 6th with 4.53 runs scored per game. Both teams have middle-of-the-road bullpens, with the Mets pitching to a 3.53 rate, and the Nationals compiling a 4.09 bullpen ERA.

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill (4-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.72 K/9)
  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Patrick Corbin (0-5, 7.16 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 8.46 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Toronto Blue Jays (17-13) @ New York Yankees (20-8), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays have started slow as an offense, scoring 3.83 runs per game on the season, which is 20th in the league, while the Yankees are up the 10th in baseball with 4.43 runs scored per game. The Yankees have had the best bullpen performance in baseball with a 2.31 bullpen ERA, while the Blue Jays have been inconsistent and have a 4.12 rate.

  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 8.71 K/9)
  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino (2-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.63 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Want to learn more about betting on MLB? Read our MLB Betting Resource Guide

Boston Red Sox (10-19) @ Atlanta Braves (14-16), 7:20 p.m. ET

The Red Sox have been a bad offense, ranking 28th in baseball with 3.28 runs per game, while the Braves have been trending up and are now 14th, scoring 4.07 runs per game on the season. The Red Sox’s bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.19 ERA, while the Braves have a 3.28 mark.

  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 12.05 K/9)
  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Wright (3-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.74 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Houston Astros (18-11) @ Minnesota Twins (18-11), 7:40 p.m. ET

The Astros have not gotten it together on offense so far this year, ranking 22nd with 3.79 runs per game, while Minnesota has weathered the storm of injuries to rank 16th with 4.03 runs per game. Both teams have had fairly solid bullpens this season with Twins having a 3.03 bullpen ERA and the Astros carrying the league’s second-best bullpen ERA at 2.61.

  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Justin Verlander (3-1, 1.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 8.54 K/9)
  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan (3-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 9.11 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, April 16, 2022, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Baltimore Orioles (12-17) @ St. Louis Cardinals (16-12), 7:45 p.m. ET

The Orioles have been a poor offense, ranking 24th in baseball with 3.52 runs per game, while the Cardinals are scoring 4.32 runs per game on the season, which ranks 11th in the league. The Cardinals’ bullpen continues to be one of the better units in the league, with a 3.11 ERA, while the Orioles have a 3.40 mark despite their hot start.

*St. Louis is now starting Packy Naughton, but that just means you get better odds on the ML. 

  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Bradish (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.50 K/9 in two starts)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Adam Wainwright (3-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.41 K/9)
  • The Pick:

 

Kansas City Royals (9-17) @ Texas Rangers (11-16), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Royals have been another bad offense, ranking 29th in baseball with 3.04 runs per game, but the Rangers are scuffling, scoring 1.67 runs per game against the Yankees and now ranking 15th in baseball with 4.04 runs scored per game on the season. The Royals’ bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.60 ERA, while the Rangers have a 3.53 mark.

  • KC Starting Pitcher: Brad Keller (1-2, 1.74 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 5.52 K/9)
  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Martin Perez (0-2, 2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.43 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Cleveland Guardians (15-14) @ Chicago White Sox (14-14), 8:10 p.m. ET

Wow. What a comeback by Cleveland last night! The Guardians continue to defy expectations and rank 2nd in baseball with 4.97 runs per game. The White Sox meanwhile rank 25th in baseball with 3.50 runs scored per game.  These two bullpens are both fairly solid, with the Guardians pitching to a 3.26 bullpen ERA and the White Sox imploded last night and saw their bullpen ERA rise to 3.51.

  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Cal Quantrill (1-1, 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.46 K/9)
  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Lucas Giolito (1-1, 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14.64 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Tampa Bay Rays (18-12) @ Los Angeles Angels (20-11), 9:38 p.m. ET

These are two of the top-ten offenses in MLB. The Angels are 3rd with 4.84 runs scored per game, while the Rays are just slightly behind in 9th with 4.43 runs per game. The Rays have a strong bullpen pitching to a 3.34 ERA despite multiple whole bullpen games, while the Angels have recorded a 3.45 mark.

  • TB Starting Pitcher: Corey Kluber (1-1, 2.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.44 K/9)
  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Reid Detmers (1-1, 5.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.36 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Chicago Cubs (10-18) @ San Diego Padres (19-11), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Cubs have cooled from their hot start and now rank 19th in baseball with 3.89 runs scored per game. The Padres also scored just two runs per game in their series against the Marlins and now rank 12th with 4.23 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens this season with Cubs having a 3.45 bullpen ERA and the Padres carrying a poor 4.22 rate.

  • CHC Starting Pitcher: Wade Miley (12-7, 3.37 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.90 K/9 in 2021)
  • SD Starting Pitcher: Mike Clevinger (Hasn’t pitched more than 40 innings since 2019)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: This is Miley’s first start of the season and Clevinger has barely pitched since 2019. There are just too many unknowns around the pitching performances today, so I’m not going to take a chance on this game.

 

Miami Marlins (13-16) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (16-14), 9:40 p.m. ET

These are two fairly average offenses. The Marlins have been slightly better, but they rank just 18th with 3.93 runs scored per game, while the Diamondbacks are 26th with 3.47 runs scored per game. The Marlins also have a better bullpen, pitching to a 2.97 bullpen ERA, while Arizona has a 4.56 mark. However, the Diamondbacks did just sweep the Marlins last week and won the first game of this series.

  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo (2-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.96 K/9)
  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (1-1, 1.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.63 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Philadelphia Phillies (13-16) @ Seattle Mariners (13-17), 9:40 p.m. ET

These are two offenses with clear potential but inconsistent results to start the season. They both averaged just 3.67 runs per game in their last series, but the Phillies’ solid game last night has them ranked 7th in baseball with 4.52 runs scored per game. The Mariners are 17th with 3.93 runs scored per game. These bullpens are both under-performing of late, with the Phillies pitching to a 4.30 bullpen ERA and the Mariners falling down to a 3.76 rate.

  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.64 K/9)
  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray (2-3, 4.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.54 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Colorado Rockies (16-13) @ San Francisco Giants (17-12), 9:45 p.m. ET

This is another matchup of top-ten offenses with the Giants ranking 4th in MLB with 4.79 runs per game, while the Rockies are just behind them in 8th with 4.48 runs scored per game. While the offenses are similarly ranked, the bullpens certainly are not. The Giants feature a solid bullpen with a 3.53 ERA, while the Rockies have the worst bullpen, pitching to a 4.94 bullpen ERA.

  • COL Starting Pitcher: Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 2.63 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Wood (2-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.49 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Alex Wood delivers in the first inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Guardians, Sunday, April 17, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

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F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

NYM (F5 ML) + MIA/ARI (F5 under 4.5) + KC/TEX (F5 under 4)

Odds: +481 so $10 would win $58.16

 

Staff Picks

Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games:

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