MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: May 11

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
May 10, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers (48) celebrates after throwing a no hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We’re off to just a 15-15 start to the MLB week, so let’s try to get this thing back on track and into the win column with a full slate of games. Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 11


Los Angeles Dodgers (20-8) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (12-17), 12:35 p.m. ET

The Dodgers are back where they belong as the best offense in baseball with 5.21 runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking 23rd with 3.72 runs scored per game. The Dodgers bullpen has a strong 2.64 ERA, while the Pirates are near the bottom with a 4.40 mark.

  • LAD Starting Pitcher: Ryan Pepiot (2-0, 2.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 12.30 K/9 in minors)
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Max Kranick (2-3, 6.28 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.45 K/9 in 2021)
  • The Pick: 

Milwaukee Brewers (20-11) @ Cincinnati Reds (6-24), 12:35 p.m. ET

The Brewers and Reds really love to put up big offensive numbers against one another. The Brewers are now scoring 4.77 runs per game, ranking 5th in baseball, while the Reds have climbed out of the basement and now rank 22nd with 3.80 runs scored per game. These bullpens are polar opposites, as the Brewers have a 3.47 mark, while the Reds have a poor 4.96 mark.

  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.42 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.52 K/9)
  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Vladimir Gutierrez (0-5, 8.86 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 5.48 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Toronto Blue Jays (17-14) @ New York Yankees (21-8), 12:35 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays have started slow as an offense, scoring 3.87 runs per game on the season, which is 20th in the league, while the Yankees are up to 8th in baseball with 4.48 runs scored per game. The Yankees have had the best bullpen performance in baseball with a 2.38 bullpen ERA, while the Blue Jays have been inconsistent, including blowing last night’s game, and have a 4.32 rate.

  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Jose Berrios (2-1, 5.34 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 6.28 K/9)
  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon (2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.46 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

May 5, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Guardians (15-15) @ Chicago White Sox (15-14), 2:10 p.m. ET

The Guardians continue to defy expectations and rank 4th in baseball with 4.83 runs per game. The White Sox, meanwhile, rank 26th in baseball with 3.52 runs scored per game.  These two bullpens are both fairly solid, with the Guardians pitching to a 3.21 bullpen ERA while the White Sox imploded earlier in the series and saw their bullpen ERA rise to 3.45.

  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Aaron Civale (1-2, 9.45 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9.90 K/9)
  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Vince Velasquez (2-2, 3.97 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.34 K/9)


Want to learn more about betting on MLB? Read our MLB Betting Resource Guide

Miami Marlins (13-17) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (17-14), 3:40 p.m. ET

These are two fairly average offenses. The Marlins have been slightly better, but they rank just tied for 17th with 3.90 runs scored per game, while the Diamondbacks are 24th with 3.65 runs scored per game. The Marlins also have a better bullpen, pitching to a 3.25 bullpen ERA, while Arizona has a 4.54 mark.

  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (2-2, 3.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.87 K/9)
  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly (3-1, 1.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.27 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Philadelphia Phillies (13-17) @ Seattle Mariners (14-17), 3:40 p.m. ET

These are two offenses with clear potential but inconsistent results to start the season. The Phillies are ranked 7th in baseball with 4.50 runs scored per game, while the Mariners are 16th with 3.97 runs scored per game. These bullpens are both under-performing of late, with the Phillies pitching to a 4.19 bullpen ERA and the Mariners falling down to a 3.81 rate.

  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3.68 K/9 as a reliever)
  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert (4-0, 1.36 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Colorado Rockies (16-14) @ San Francisco Giants (18-12), 3:45 p.m. ET

This is a matchup of top-ten offenses with the Giants ranking 3rd in MLB with 4.93 runs per game, while the Rockies are just behind them in 9th with 4.40 runs scored per game, even though they just score 2.86 runs on the road. While the offenses are similarly ranked, the bullpens certainly are not. The Giants feature a solid bullpen with a 3.50 ERA, while the Rockies have the worst bullpen, pitching to a 5.08 bullpen ERA.

  • COL Starting Pitcher: Chad Kuhl (3-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6.67 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb (1-1, 4.80 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 13.20 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

May 6, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Chad Kuhl (41) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Chicago Cubs (10-19) @ San Diego Padres (20-11), 4:10 p.m. ET

The Cubs have cooled from their hot start and now rank 19th in baseball with 3.90 runs scored per game. The Padres have also struggled to score of late and now rank 12th with 4.26 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens this season with Cubs having a 3.46 bullpen ERA and the Padres carrying a 4.12 rate.

  • CHC Starting Pitcher: Bullpen Game
  • SD Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez (2-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.43 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


New York Mets (21-10) @ Washington Nationals (10-21), 7:05 p.m. ET

Washington has been picking it up of late and now ranks 14th with 4.10 runs per game. The Mets have been one of the better teams in baseball, ranking 6th with 4.52 runs scored per game. Both teams have middle-of-the-road bullpens, with the Mets pitching to a 3.45 rate, and the Nationals compiling a 4.18 bullpen ERA.

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill (4-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.72 K/9)
  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 8.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5.93 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Tampa Bay Rays (18-13) @ Los Angeles Angels (21-11), 7:07 p.m. ET

These are two of the top-ten offenses in MLB, even after Tampa got no-hit yesterday. The Angels are 2nd with 5.06 runs scored per game, while the Rays are in 10th with 4.29 runs per game. The Rays have a solid bullpen pitching to a 3.47 ERA despite multiple whole bullpen games, while the Angels have recorded a 3.45 mark.

  • TB Starting Pitcher: Shane McClanahan (2-2, 3.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 13.08 K/9)
  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani (3-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14.01 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Oakland Athletics (12-19) @ Detroit Tigers (9-21), 7:10 p.m. ET

These are two fairly poor offenses with Oakland ranking 28th in baseball with 3.29 runs per game and the Tigers ranking dead last with 2.83 runs per game. The Tigers have had one of the best bullpens in baseball to start the season, earning a 2.63 ERA, while the Athletics have a solid 3.32 bullpen ERA.

  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Zach Logue (1-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 9.08 K/9)
  • DET Starting Pitcher: Joey Wentz (1-2, 3.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.79 K/9)
  • The Pick:  Pass
  • WHY?: Honestly, I kind of want to ignore this game. Two bad offenses. Two totally unknown pitchers. I just have no feel for how this game will play out.


Boston Red Sox (11-19) @ Atlanta Braves (14-17), 7:20 p.m. ET

The Red Sox came to life a little bit last night, but have been a bad offense overall, ranking 27th in baseball with 3.47 runs per game, while the Braves are now 15th, scoring 4.06 runs per game on the season. The Red Sox’s bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.07 ERA, while the Braves have a 3.39 mark.

  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 2.94 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 12.05 K/9)
  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Ian Anderson (3-1, 4.01 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.74 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Houston Astros (19-11) @ Minnesota Twins (18-12), 7:40 p.m. ET

The Astros have not gotten it together on offense so far this year, ranking 21st with 3.83 runs per game, while Minnesota has weathered the storm of injuries and rank tied for 17th with 3.90 runs per game. Both teams have had fairly solid bullpens this season with Twins having a 2.91 bullpen ERA and the Astros carrying the league’s second-best bullpen ERA at 2.58.

  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.61 K/9)
  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer (0-0, 3.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.31 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: I can’t figure out either of these pitchers. Archer shouldn’t be good, but he’s pitching pretty well. Urquidy should be better, but he’s pitching poorly. Both offenses are struggling to hit and the bullpens have been pretty good, so this could lean towards the under, but both pitchers could also implode. Just too many question marks.


Baltimore Orioles (13-17) @ St. Louis Cardinals (16-13), 7:45 p.m. ET

The Orioles have been a poor offense, ranking 25th in baseball with 3.57 runs per game, while the Cardinals are scoring 4.28 runs per game on the season, which ranks 11th in the league. The Cardinals’ bullpen continues to be one of the better units in the league, with a 3.12 ERA, while the Orioles have a 3.42 mark.

  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Spenser Watkins (0-0, 3.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.03 K/9)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (2-1, 1.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7.13 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Kansas City Royals (9-18) @ Texas Rangers (12-16), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Royals have been another bad offense, ranking 29th in baseball with 3.07 runs per game, while the Rangers woke up from the slump against the Yankees and scored six runs last night. They rank 13th in baseball with 4.11 runs scored per game on the season. The Royals’ bullpen continues to struggle with a 4.50 ERA, while the Rangers have a 3.46 mark.

  • KC Starting Pitcher: Kris Bubic (0-0, 13.14 ERA, 2.35 WHIP, 6.53 K/9)
  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Bullpen Game
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: We have one team with a mediocre bullpen having a bullpen game and then another team using a bad starter in a bulk reliever role. That should lead to massive offensive output, but this also features one of the worst offenses in baseball. Our model calls for this to finish with 10.45 total runs, so maybe you bet the over, but I’m just going to avoid.
Mar 26, 2022; Surprise, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Brady Singer (51) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning of a spring training game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

For all of our MLB Betting Guides and News, click here

F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.




Staff Picks

Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games: