The calendar has flipped to May. We needed April on a high note with our MLB bets yesterday, so we’ll look to keep the good times going into the new month.
Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.
Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.
Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.
New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms
MLB Odds and Schedule, May 2
Kansas City Royals (7-13) @ St. Louis Cardinals (12-9), 1:15 p.m. ET
The Royals are struggling on offense and now rank 29th in baseball with 3.15 runs scored per game, while St. Louis has also been scuffling of late, scoring just 3.00 runs per game over their last three and 4.24 runs per game on the seas, good for 14th in the league. These bullpens are also on opposite ends of the early-season results spectrum as Kansas City has posted a 5.10 bullpen ERA and St. Louis has a 2.92 rate.
- KC Starting Pitcher: Zack Greinke (0-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.45 K/9)
- STL Starting Pitcher: Steven Matz (2-1, 6.11 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 11.72 K/9)
- The Pick:
Los Angeles Angels (15-8) @ Chicago White Sox (8-13), 2:10 p.m. ET
The Angels have been one of the most potent offenses in baseball with 4.78 runs scored per game, ranking 4th in the league; meanwhile, the White Sox have really been struggling with injuries and rank 25th in the league with 3.29 runs per game. Both teams have had surprisingly under-performing bullpens, with the White Sox pitching to a 3.74 bullpen ERA and the Angels coming into the series with a 3.66 mark.
- LAA Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.00 K/9)
- CHW Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease (2-1, 3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.45 K/9)
- The Pick:
Arizona Diamondbacks (10-13) @ Miami Marlins (12-9), 6:40 p.m. ET
These are two offenses that lack real punch. Miami has been a hot-and-cold offense all year and ranks 19th in baseball with 3.96 runs scored per game, while Arizona has been consistently bad, ranking 28th with 3.17 runs per game. The Marlins feature a solid bullpen with a 3.21 mark, but Arizona has been near the bottom of the league with a 3.88 bullpen ERA.
- ARI Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen (0-0, 0.60 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 8.40 K/9)
- MIA Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez (3-0, 0.39 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 8.87 K/9)
- The Pick:
Minnesota Twins (13-9) @ Baltimore Orioles (8-14), 7:05 p.m. ET
The Twins are starting to get hot, scoring 6.33 runs per game over their last three and 4.27 runs per game on the season, good for 13th. Unfortunately, Baltimore is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 26th with 3.23 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens despite Baltimore’s hot start, as Minnesota has a 3.61 bullpen ERA and Baltimore carries a 3.67 rate.
- MIN Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack (0-2, 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.98 K/9)
- BAL Starting Pitcher: Tyler Wells (0-2, 5.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.92 K/9)
- The Pick:
New York Yankees (16-6) @ Toronto Blue Jays (15-8), 7:07 p.m. ET
While the reputation of these two teams is that both have high-powered offenses, only the Yankees have consistently played to that reputation so far. New York ranks 3rd in baseball with 4.82 runs per game, while Toronto comes in at just 4.00 runs per game, good for 17th in the league. The Yankees have also had a far better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 2.80 ERA to Toronto’s 3.80 mark.
- NYY Starting Pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (0-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.75 K/9)
- TOR Starting Pitcher: Ross Stripling (0-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.20 K/9)
- The Pick:
For all of our MLB Betting Guides and News, click here
Atlanta Braves (10-13) @ New York Mets (16-7), 7:10 p.m. ET
The Mets’ bats have been hot all year, ranking 7th with 4.70 runs per game; meanwhile, the Braves have been a fairly mediocre 20th with 3.87 runs per game. The addition of Ronald Acuña Jr. should help as he shakes the rust, but we haven’t seen the runs per game tick up just yet. The Mets have had fairly solid bullpen performance and have a 3.16 ERA while the Braves have struggled a bit with a 3.69 rate.
- ATL Starting Pitcher: Max Fried (2-2, 3.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.88 K/9)
- NYM Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt (3-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.75 K/9)
- The Pick: Pass
- WHY?: The Mets are hot, so it’s tough to bet against them, but I just don’t yet have a good feel for who this Braves team is with Acuña Jr. back. Bassitt is a good arm, but not one who is a lock to hold down a locked-in Braves offense. The only issue is that the offense has not been locked in. However, Max Fried is also talented enough to hold the Mets’ offense in check. If it’s a close game, do you really trust Adam Ottavino and Edwin Diaz to close it out? Just too many unknowns for me but will be a great game to watch.
Seattle Mariners (12-10) @ Houston Astros (11-11), 8:10 p.m. ET
The Mariners have remained a strong offense, ranking 8th in baseball with 4.64 runs per game, but the Astros continue to struggle, scoring 3.73 runs per game and ranking 22nd in the league. These are two of the best-performing bullpens in baseball with Houston pitching to a 3.12 mark and Seattle coming into the series with a 2.83 bullpen ERA.
- SEA Starting Pitcher: Marco Gonzales (1-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
- HOU Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi (1-3, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 5.40 K/9)
- The Pick:
Tampa Bay Rays (12-10) @ Oakland Athletics (10-12), 9:40 p.m. ET
The Rays’ offense had a rough week and now ranks 15th in baseball with 4.09 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Athletics have started to fall down the rankings, scoring just 3.82 runs per game and ranking 21st in the league. However, these are two strong bullpens with Oakland registering a 3.22 bullpen ERA while the Rays have a 2.99 rate.
- TB Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
- OAK Starting Pitcher: Daulton Jefferies (1-3, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.99 K/9)
- The Pick:
F5 Parlay of the Day
We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.
MIA (U 1.5 team F5 runs) + NYY (F5 ML) + TB (F5 ML)
Odds: +536 so $10 would win you $63.63
Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games: