MLB Betting Picks

MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: May 3

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Mariners Astros Baseball
Houston Astros’ Jeremy Pena (3) celebrates with Alex Bregman (2) after hitting a two-run home run against the Seattle Mariners during the sixth inning of a baseball game Monday, May 2, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The calendar has flipped to May. We ended April on a high note with our MLB bets yesterday, so we’ll look to keep the good times going into the new month.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 3

 

Atlanta Braves (11-13) @ New York Mets (16-8), 3:10 p.m. ET

Game 1 of a doubleheader

The Mets’ bats have been hot all year, ranking 8th with 4.58 runs per game; meanwhile, the Braves have been a fairly mediocre tied at 19th with 3.92 runs per game. The addition of Ronald Acuña Jr. should help as he shakes the rust, but we haven’t seen the runs per game tick up just yet. Prior to pitching an injured Trevor May last night, the Mets have had fairly solid bullpen performance and have a 3.69 ERA while the Braves have a 3.35 rate.

    • ATL Starting Pitcher: Charlie Morton (1-2, 7.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7.50 K/9)
    • NYM Starting Pitcher: David Peterson (0-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.30 K/9)
    • The Pick: 

San Diego Padres (15-8) @ Cleveland Guardians (10-12), 6:10 p.m. ET

The Padres’ bats have been heating up a bit, ranking 3rd with 4.74 runs per game; meanwhile, the Guardians are coming back down to earth a bit, at 7th with 4.59 runs per game. These have been two under-performing bullpens with the Padres pitching to a 3.97 mark and the Guardians having a 3.70 rate.

  • SD Starting Pitcher: Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K/9 in 2020)
  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Zach Plesac (1-2, 3.80 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 5.06 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: We haven’t seen Clevinger pitch in two years. We have no idea what version of him we’re going to get, which makes it incredibly hard to place any money on this game. It could just go in so many different directions.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks (11-13) @ Miami Marlins (12-10), 6:40 p.m. ET

These are two offenses that lack real punch. Miami has been a hot-and-cold offense all year and ranks 18th in baseball with 3.95 runs scored per game, while Arizona has been consistently bad, despite their performance last night, ranking 26th with 3.25 runs per game. The Marlins feature a solid bullpen with a 3.24 mark, but Arizona has been near the bottom of the league with a 4.30 bullpen ERA.

  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Humberto Castellanos (1-1, 5.79 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 5.14 K/9)
  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers (1-3, 5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.13 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Atlanta Braves (11-13) @ New York Mets (16-8), 6:40 p.m. ET

Game 2 of a doubleheader

The Mets’ bats have been hot all year, ranking 8th with 4.58 runs per game; meanwhile, the Braves have been a fairly mediocre tied at 19th with 3.92 runs per game. The addition of Ronald Acuña Jr. should help as he shakes the rust, but we haven’t seen the runs per game tick up just yet. Prior to pitching an injured Trevor May last night, the Mets have had fairly solid bullpen performance and have a 3.69 ERA while the Braves have a 3.35 rate.

  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Wright (3-0, 1.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12.75 K/9)
  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 4.09 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.41 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Texas Rangers (8-14) @ Philadelphia Phillies (11-12), 6:45 p.m. ET

These two offenses are both starting to swing the bats pretty well of late. The Rangers are tied for 11th in the league with 4.36 runs per game, while the Phillies rank 6th with 4.61 runs per game. However, these bullpens are both performing pretty poorly to start the year with the Rangers coming in with a 3.92 bullpen ERA and the Phillies having a 3.98 mark.

  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Jon Gray (0-1, 7.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.00 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez (2-0, 4.42 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 5.89 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Minnesota Twins (14-9) @ Baltimore Orioles (8-15), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Twins are starting to get hot, scoring 6.67 runs per game over their last three and 4.17 runs per game on the season, good for 13th. Unfortunately, Baltimore is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 28th with 3.13 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens despite Baltimore’s hot start, as Minnesota has a 3.65 bullpen ERA and Baltimore carries a 3.67 rate.

  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan (3-1, 1.17 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 9.78 K/9)
  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Bruce Zimmerman (1-1, 0.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.78 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Apr 27, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

New York Yankees (17-6) @ Toronto Blue Jays (15-9), 7:07 p.m. ET

While the reputation of these two teams is that both have high-powered offenses, only the Yankees have consistently played to that reputation so far. New York ranks tied for 3rd in baseball with 4.74 runs per game, while Toronto comes in at just 3.92 runs per game, tied for 19th in the league. The Yankees have also had a far better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 2.47 ERA to Toronto’s 3.61 mark.

  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon (1-1, 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.91 K/9)
  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Alek Manoah (4-0, 1.44 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.00 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates (9-13) @ Detroit Tigers (7-14), 7:10 p.m. ET

Unlike the game above, these are two poor offensive teams. Detroit ranks 27th in baseball with 3.19 runs per game, while Pittsburgh comes in at 3.64 runs per game, good for 23rd in the league. The Tigers have had the best bullpen performance in the league to start the year, with a 1.97 ERA, which is much better than Pittsburgh’s 4.22 mark.

  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Bryse Wilson (0-0, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.87 K/9)
  • DET Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.60 K/9)
  • The Pick: GAME IS POSTPONED

 

Los Angeles Angels (15-9) @ Boston Red Sox (9-14), 7:10 p.m. ET

These offenses are going in opposite directions. The Angels are crushing the ball, scoring 4.58 runs per game, good for 8th in the league, while Boston is scoring just 3.52 runs per game, ranking 24th. The Red Sox have surprisingly had a better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 3.67 ERA compared to the Angels’ 3.75 mark.

  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (2-0, 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 5.82 K/9)
  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.77 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 7.52 K/9)
  • The Pick:

 

Chicago White Sox (9-13) @ Chicago Cubs (9-13), 7:40 p.m. ET

Surprisingly, it’s the Cubs that have been the better Chicago offense to start the year. The Cubs rank tied for 11th in baseball with 4.36 runs per game, while the White Sox come in at just 3.27 runs per game, good for 25th in the league. The Cubs have also had a slightly better bullpen performance to start the year, with a 3.45 ERA to the White Sox’s 3.69 mark.

  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech (0-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.53 K/9)
  • CHC Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly (1-2, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.05 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

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Cincinnati Reds (3-19) @ Milwaukee Brewers (15-8), 7:40 p.m. ET

The Reds have been an atrocious offense, ranking 29th in baseball with 3.05 runs per game, while the Brewers have been trending up, scoring 4.09 runs per game and ranking 16th in the league. These two bullpens are also on opposite ends of the performance spectrum, with the Reds pitching to a 4.48 bullpen ERA and the Brewers compiling a 3.18 mark.

  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle (1-3, 6.45 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 9.67 K/9)
  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.16 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Apr 7, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (30) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle Mariners (12-11) @ Houston Astros (12-11), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Mariners have remained a strong offense, ranking 10th in baseball with 4.43 runs per game, but the Astros continue to struggle, scoring 3.70 runs per game and ranking 21st in the league. These are two of the best-performing bullpens in baseball with Houston pitching to a 2.96 mark and Seattle coming into the series with a 2.87 bullpen ERA.

  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Chris Flexen (1-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.63 K/9)
  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Cristian Javier (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 10.80 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

St. Louis Cardinals (13-9) @ Kansas City Royals (7-14), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Royals are struggling on offense and now rank dead last in baseball with 3.00 runs scored per game, while St. Louis has also been scuffling of late, scoring just 2.67 runs per game over their last three and 4.09 runs per game on the seas, good for 15th in the league. These bullpens are also on opposite ends of the early-season results spectrum as Kansas City has posted a 4.75 bullpen ERA and St. Louis has a 2.94 rate.

  • STL Starting Pitcher: Dakota Hudson (2-1, 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6.41 K/9)
  • KC Starting Pitcher: Brad Keller (0-2, 2.19 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 6.20 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Washington Nationals (8-16) @ Colorado Rockies (13-9), 8:40 p.m. ET

The Rockies have benefited from a lot of home games early, ranking 5th in baseball with 4.73 runs per game, while Washington has been improving a bit, ranking 17th with 3.96 runs per game. However, these bullpens have both been super hittable with the Rockies ranking dead last with a 4.87 bullpen ERA and the Nationals just slightly ahead with a 4.02 rate.

  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Erick Fedde (1-2, 6.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 9.50 K/9)
  • COL Starting Pitcher: German Marquez (0-1, 5.57 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.00 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Tampa Bay Rays (13-10) @ Oakland Athletics (10-13), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Rays’ offense had a rough week but rebounded last night and still ranks tied for 13th in baseball with 4.17 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Athletics have started to fall down the rankings, scoring just 3.70 runs per game and ranking 21st in the league. However, these are two strong bullpens with Oakland registering a 3.02 bullpen ERA while the Rays have a 2.98 rate.

  • TB Starting Pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough (9-7, 5.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.79 K/9 in 2021)
  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Paul Blackburn (3-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
  • The Pick:

 

San Francisco Giants (14-8) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (14-7), 10:10 p.m. ET

These are two of the best teams and offenses in the league. The Giants rank first in baseball with 4.95 runs per game, while the Dodgers are right behind in 2nd with 4.86 runs per game. Both teams also have tremendous bullpens, with the Giants pitching to a 2.59 bullpen ERA and the Dodgers coming into the series with a 2.77 mark.

  • SF Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon (3-0, 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 14.87 K/9)
  • LAD Starting Pitcher: Julio Urias (1-1, 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.50 K/9)
  • The Pick:

San Francisco Giants’ Carlos Rodon pitches during the first inning of the team’s baseball game against the New York Mets on Wednesday, April 20, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

 

F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

This admittedly isn’t a great day for a parlay, so I wouldn’t go too crazy with this one.

MIA (F5 ML) + TOR (F5 ML) + CHW (F5 ML)

Odds: +342 so $10 pays out $44.21

 

Staff Picks

Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games:

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