MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: May 5

Juan Yepez
St. Louis Cardinals’ Juan Yepez is congratulated in the dugout after scoring a run in the first inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Wednesday, May 4, 2022 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

After hitting 72% of our MLB bets last week, we’re off to a slower start this week at just 18-21 through the first three days, but we’ll try to crank it back up today.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 5

Los Angeles Angels (16-10) @ Boston Red Sox (10-15), 1:35 p.m. ET

This has been a pretty close series, offensively speaking, until the Red Sox bullpen just imploded in the 10th inning yesterday. However, on the season, the Angels are scoring 4.62 runs per game, good for 8th in the league, while Boston is scoring just 3.60 runs per game, ranking 24th. The Red Sox’s bullpen has started to unravel and now has a 3.98 ERA compared to the Angels’ 3.69 mark. (*Tanner Houck will piggyback with Rich Hill for Boston)

  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani (2-2, 4.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.97 K/9)
  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Rich Hill (0-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.82 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Cincinnati Reds (3-21) @ Milwaukee Brewers (17-8), 1:40 p.m. ET

The Reds have been an atrocious offense, ranking 29th in baseball with 3.08 runs per game, while the Brewers have been trending up, scoring 8 runs per game in this series and 4.72 runs per game on the season, which ranks 4th in the league. These two bullpens are also on opposite ends of the performance spectrum, with the Reds pitching to a league-worst 5.16 bullpen ERA and the Brewers compiling a 3.01 mark.

  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene (1-3, 6.00 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 11.00 K/9)
  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Adrian Houser (2-2, 2.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.75 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


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Washington Nationals (9-17) @ Colorado Rockies (14-10), 3:10 p.m. ET

The Rockies have benefited from a lot of home games early, ranking tied for 5th in baseball with 4.63 runs per game, while Washington has been improving of late, ranking 17th with 4.12 runs per game. However, these bullpens have both been super hittable with the Rockies pitching to a 4.71 bullpen ERA and the Nationals just slightly ahead with a 4.03 rate.

  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez (1-1, 6.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.82 K/9)
  • COL Starting Pitcher: Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 3.66 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 2.75 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: The model is calling for this to have a 13.83 total, which should make us learn towards the over. However, Sanchez and Senzatela are both groundball pitchers, and Patrick Corbin totally shut the Rockies down last night, which was shocking. Coming off of that game, I just don’t feel comfortable betting on the Rockies and the over is a bit too high for me to be comfortable.

Toronto Blue Jays (16-10) @ Cleveland Guardians (11-13), 6:10 p.m. ET

Toronto has been failing to meet expectations on offense so far and comes in at just 3.73 runs per game, which ranks 21; meanwhile, the Guardians are tied for 5th with 4.63 runs per game. These have been two under-performing bullpens with the Blue Jays pitching to a 3.93 mark and the Guardians having a 3.57 rate.

  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Jose Berrios (3-2, 3.02 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 7.50 K/9)
  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Aaron Civale (1-2, 10.67 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, 8.79 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


New York Mets (18-9) @ Philadelphia Phillies (11-14), 6:45 p.m. ET

The Mets’ bats have been cooling off slightly, ranking tied for 9th with the Phillies with 4.44 runs per game. The Mets’ bullpen had a really poor performance in the Braves series and now has a 3.93 ERA while the Phillies have a slightly better 3.90 rate.

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 6.43 K/9 in 2 starts)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.90 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.06 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Apr 13, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch during the third inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Twins (15-10) @ Baltimore Orioles (9-16), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Twins are starting to get hot, scoring 4.28 runs per game on the season, good for 13th. Unfortunately, Baltimore is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 26th with 3.32 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens despite Baltimore’s hot start, as Minnesota has a 3.33 bullpen ERA and Baltimore carries a 3.78 rate.

    • MIN Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer (0-0, 2.93 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.22 K/9)
    • BAL Starting Pitcher: Spenser Watkins (0-0, 2.55 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.08 K/9)
    • The Pick: 

Detroit Tigers (8-15) @ Houston Astros (14-11), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Astros continue to struggle to score, totaling 3.84 runs per game and ranking 20th in the league, while Detroit ranks 28th in baseball with 3.13 runs per game. The Tigers have had the best bullpen performance in the league to start the year, with a 2.26 ERA, which is slightly better than Houston’s 2.76 mark.

  • DET Starting Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (1-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.71 K/9)
  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Jose Urquidy (2-1, 5.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.95 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


Miami Marlins (12-12) @ San Diego Padres (12-11), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Padres’ bats have been heating up a bit, ranking 2nd in the league with 4.76 runs per game; meanwhile, Miami has been a hot-and-cold offense all year and ranks 18th in baseball with 4.08 runs scored per game. The Marlins feature a solid bullpen with a 3.09 mark, and the Padres are pitching to a 4.13 mark.

  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 12.39 K/9)
  • SD Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez (1-2, 4.12 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 8.24 K/9)
  • The Pick:


Tampa Bay Rays (14-10) @ Seattle Mariners (12-12), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Mariners had a rough series against Houston and now rank 16th in baseball with 4.16 runs per game, while the Rays rank 11th in baseball with 4.36 runs scored per game. These are two solid bullpens with Rays pitching to a 2.80 mark and Seattle coming in with a 3.21 bullpen ERA.

  • TB Starting Pitcher: Shane McClanahan (1-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 14.00 K/9)
  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray (2-2, 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.71 K/9)
  • The Pick: 


St. Louis Cardinals (14-10) @ San Francisco Giants (14-10), 9:45 p.m. ET

The Giants rank tied for 5th in baseball with 4.63 runs per game, while St. Louis broke out of their mini-slump yesterday and is now averaging 4.21 runs per game on the season, good for 14th in the league. Both teams also have tremendous bullpens, even with the Giants’ struggles this past series. On the season, the Giants are pitching to a 3.09 bullpen ERA, and the Cardinals come into the series with a 3.21 mark.

  • STL Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (1-1, 1.52 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 7.58 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Logan Webb (3-1, 3.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.93 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Oct 14, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning in game five of the 2021 NLDS at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports


F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

Odds: Check back later 


Staff Picks

Here you can keep track of all of our picks for the day’s games: